Chinese stock delisted. it's over.
- Thread starter Bai Lan
- Start date
I am not invested in China, so why should I care? Or maybe I should say I am not directly invested in China, and not invested much in China. Of my "standard investments" 20% is in SWISX(Schwab International Index Fund) which is a global total stock market fund. They might be partly invested in China, but I assume that is underrepresented. 70% of the standards is in SWTSX(Schwab Total Stock Market Index Fund), which invests in the total US stock market, and 10% is in SCOXX(Schwab Treasury Obligations Money Fund), which is in Treasurys and their equivalents.
Now my "non-standard investments" are the interesting thing. They are mostly stock options invested in SPY(S&P 500) puts, and GLD(gold) calls. That is investing in that the S&P 500 will go down, and gold will go up. Both have done very well for me, but have done poorly in the last two days. They are neither direct, nor indirect investments in China. I am not sure where you got the idea they were.
Put simply, I am making and losing more money than I ever thought I could in a day, day after day. But I have made, and realized a huge amount of money from speculating that trump will destroy the US economy. The "realized" part of that is most important. Whatever happens to the stock options from here, I have realized a profit... It is in my pocket, so to speak. It is actually in total market funds, which can go down, but if they go down, I make even more money from my stock options.
There is still one major danger. Most of it is locked in a Roth IRA for the next 5 years(until I turn 59.5). That means it does not get taxed one bit, but also it cannot be moved around easily. It is stuck in the USA, which could seize the money, or completely fail.
Guno צְבִי
We fight, We win, Am Yisrael Chai
Poor aggrieved redneck
Arnaud Bertrand
@RnaudBertrand
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This is absolutely huge, it's like Trump is doing whatever is the opposite of "divide and conquer".Also reminder that it is those sanctions that put an end to the Comprehensive Agreement on Investment (CAI) in 2020, described at the time by the EU as "the most ambitious agreement that China has ever concluded" (https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_20_2542…).If those sanctions are removed, it paves the way to put such a deal back on the table, and connect China and the EU in an unprecedented way
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South China Morning Post
@SCMPNews
Breaking | European Parliament in ‘final stages’ of talks with China to remove sanctions
Arnaud Bertrand
@RnaudBertrand
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If this gets confirmed and Trump indeed folds, this will be seen as one of those seminal events that confirm, beyond all the propaganda, a fundamental rebalancing of power between China and the US, and an end to the era of US economic dominance.Factually speaking, the US launched an extraordinary attack on China's economy, as according to Trump and others around him the tariffs were largely about a "grand encirclement" plan of China (Bessent's characterization: https://bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2025-04-12/bessent-has-a-grand-encirclement-plan-for-china-bloomberg-new-economy…).But China didn't get intimidated and responded in kind, and 21 days after not a single country - not one - made a "deal" with the US against China, or even signaled their intention to do so.Quite the contrary, many countries publicly stated their intention to get closer to China as a result and to derisk from the US.Furthermore, as we all know, the US lost trillions of dollars in its stock market, saw the cost of its debt soar like rarely before and the value of its currency crash. And I'm not even speaking about the thousands and thousands of companies and individuals in the US complaining about how the tariffs are already affecting them negatively.The impact on China's side was much less pronounced: the CSI 300 Index is virtually unchanged, and so is the cost of China's debt, standing at 1.67% for their 10Y bonds vs 4.4% for US 10Y bonds. Due to the tariffs, the IMF just predicted a reduction of only 0.5% in China's GDP growth (down to 4%) vs a loss of 0.9% for the US's GDP (down to 1.8%), meaning that China would keep growing at more than twice the rate of the U.S. despite the tariffs, and would be much less affected by them than the U.S.In short, when Trump undoubtedly attempted to showcase America's might, he's only achieved a brilliant demonstration of its impotence and, by contrast, highlighted China's diplomatic and economic adeptness. Basically, we're in a new world where America simply cannot bully its way around anymore: when they do so, they end up hurting themselves first and foremost.
@RnaudBertrand
Subscribe
If this gets confirmed and Trump indeed folds, this will be seen as one of those seminal events that confirm, beyond all the propaganda, a fundamental rebalancing of power between China and the US, and an end to the era of US economic dominance.Factually speaking, the US launched an extraordinary attack on China's economy, as according to Trump and others around him the tariffs were largely about a "grand encirclement" plan of China (Bessent's characterization: https://bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2025-04-12/bessent-has-a-grand-encirclement-plan-for-china-bloomberg-new-economy…).But China didn't get intimidated and responded in kind, and 21 days after not a single country - not one - made a "deal" with the US against China, or even signaled their intention to do so.Quite the contrary, many countries publicly stated their intention to get closer to China as a result and to derisk from the US.Furthermore, as we all know, the US lost trillions of dollars in its stock market, saw the cost of its debt soar like rarely before and the value of its currency crash. And I'm not even speaking about the thousands and thousands of companies and individuals in the US complaining about how the tariffs are already affecting them negatively.The impact on China's side was much less pronounced: the CSI 300 Index is virtually unchanged, and so is the cost of China's debt, standing at 1.67% for their 10Y bonds vs 4.4% for US 10Y bonds. Due to the tariffs, the IMF just predicted a reduction of only 0.5% in China's GDP growth (down to 4%) vs a loss of 0.9% for the US's GDP (down to 1.8%), meaning that China would keep growing at more than twice the rate of the U.S. despite the tariffs, and would be much less affected by them than the U.S.In short, when Trump undoubtedly attempted to showcase America's might, he's only achieved a brilliant demonstration of its impotence and, by contrast, highlighted China's diplomatic and economic adeptness. Basically, we're in a new world where America simply cannot bully its way around anymore: when they do so, they end up hurting themselves first and foremost.
Bai Lan
Let It Rot
I have never invested directly in China. If you think I am dumb, you are free to invest in the exact opposite way than I do.
Bai Lan
Let It Rot
Weasel words
Not weasel words. I strongly encourage you to put your money where your mouth is, and invest in your own way. If you are right, you can make real money. If I am right, I can laugh at you for losing your money.
Bai Lan
Let It Rot
Into the Night
Verified User
So you are invested in China, while claiming you aren't. Paradox. Irrational. You cannot argue both sides of a paradox, Wally.
