COVID Fudge Factors

M

Mina

Verified User
Every state counts COVID deaths differently. A few report something as a COVID death if the dead person was COVID positive and COVID might have contributed to the death. So, they end up over-counting. Far more states err on the side of exclusion, by declining to report a COVID death unless it's very clear the death would not otherwise have occurred. So, they end up under-counting.

Because of that, I've instead relied on excess death figures. Before COVID, the CDC was very good at predicting how many people would die in a particular state over a particular time simply by projecting forward past mortality rates, so comparing their pre-pandemic projected deaths with the actual death counts, you can get a pretty good feel for how many COVID has killed in each state.

What you can also do with that data is figure out how much a particular state has been "overcounting" or "undercounting," simply by comparing the number of excess deaths in the state to the number of COVID deaths they've counted.

So, for instance, if the CDC predicted 5,000 people would die in a state during a given year, based on pre-pandemic mortality trends, and 6,000 actually died, then that's 1,000 excess deaths. If the state reported 500 COVID deaths, that suggests they probably were undercounting by half, and their "COVID Multiplier" would be 2 (1,000/500). If, on the other hand, they reported 2,000 COVID deaths, that suggests they were probably overcounting and their multiplier would be 0.5 (1,000/2,000).

Here's the multiplier for each state, for the twelve months ending the last week of April:

Vermont 3.30
Oregon 1.79
Alaska 1.63
Utah 1.50
West Virginia 1.49
Arizona 1.47
Washington 1.46
Delaware 1.41
New Mexico 1.39
Virginia 1.38
California 1.38
Maine 1.35
Montana 1.35
Colorado 1.34
Georgia 1.33
North Carolina 1.32
Arkansas 1.30
Louisiana 1.26
Mississippi 1.26
Alabama 1.26
Nevada 1.25
Idaho 1.24
Florida 1.24
Connecticut 1.24
Tennessee 1.21
Texas 1.21
Michigan 1.20
Illinois 1.20
United States 1.19
Kentucky 1.17
Wyoming 1.13
Oklahoma 1.13
South Carolina 1.09
Wisconsin 1.09
Kansas 1.08
Minnesota 1.03
Missouri 1.01
Ohio 0.97
New York 0.96
Pennsylvania 0.96
Iowa 0.94
Indiana 0.92
New Hampshire 0.86
Hawaii 0.79
Nebraska 0.79
Maryland 0.72
South Dakota 0.70
New Jersey 0.60
North Dakota 0.58
Rhode Island 0.54
Massachusetts 0.38

Note, that doesn't mean that Vermont had the most COVID deaths or Massachusetts the least. It's just that Vermont undercounted the most and Massachusetts overcounted the most. You would need to apply the multiplier to their claimed COVID death count to get the "adjusted COVID death count."

So, using that data, if Arizona announced that 100 people in their state died of COVID in a given week, the real number would probably be closer to 147. If Maryland announced 100 died of COVID in that week, the real number would likely be closer to 72. They could be reporting the same thing, and yet COVID could actually be killing twice as many people in Arizona, simply because AZ tends to decide gray-area calls against calling something a COVID death and Maryland tends to go the opposite direction and err on the side of including it.

On average, as you can see, the national trend has been to underreport, with a 1.19 multiplier. So, when the CDC says 1,000 Americans died of COVID in a week, it's probably more like 1,190.
 
I think the Covid deaths were way over reported. If someone died in a car wreck, if they were positive it was counted as a Covid death. I think hospitals also got kick backs for Covid patients.
 
Life is Golden said:
I think the Covid deaths were way over reported. If someone died in a car wreck, if they were positive it was counted as a Covid death. I think hospitals also got kick backs for Covid patients.
Click to expand...

my wife got counted as COVID despite not having teste4d positive for it. ever.
 
Life is Golden said:
I think the Covid deaths were way over reported. If someone died in a car wreck, if they were positive it was counted as a Covid death. I think hospitals also got kick backs for Covid patients.
Click to expand...
Here's how Reuters is reporting it.

Reuters Staff
It is true that a section of the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act (or the CARES Act) calls for higher compensation from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) for the care of patients with a primary or secondary diagnosis of COVID-19. Contrary to what the posts claim, however, the measure is found in Section 3710, not 4409, and the increase is 20%, not 15%. It appears that the content’s author confused the version of the bill that went through the Senate on March 21 ( here ) with the final House version ( here ), which became public law on March 27.

https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-factcheck-more-money-for-covid-cases/partly-false-claim-hospitals-get-compensated-15-more-when-they-admit-discharge-or-lose-a-patient-to-covid-19-new-york-city-hospitals-are-inflating-their-case-numbers-to-take-advantage-idUSKBN22I2KR
 
Mina said:
Every state counts COVID deaths differently. A few report something as a COVID death if the dead person was COVID positive and COVID might have contributed to the death. So, they end up over-counting. Far more states err on the side of exclusion, by declining to report a COVID death unless it's very clear the death would not otherwise have occurred. So, they end up under-counting.

Because of that, I've instead relied on excess death figures. Before COVID, the CDC was very good at predicting how many people would die in a particular state over a particular time simply by projecting forward past mortality rates, so comparing their pre-pandemic projected deaths with the actual death counts, you can get a pretty good feel for how many COVID has killed in each state.

What you can also do with that data is figure out how much a particular state has been "overcounting" or "undercounting," simply by comparing the number of excess deaths in the state to the number of COVID deaths they've counted.

So, for instance, if the CDC predicted 5,000 people would die in a state during a given year, based on pre-pandemic mortality trends, and 6,000 actually died, then that's 1,000 excess deaths. If the state reported 500 COVID deaths, that suggests they probably were undercounting by half, and their "COVID Multiplier" would be 2 (1,000/500). If, on the other hand, they reported 2,000 COVID deaths, that suggests they were probably overcounting and their multiplier would be 0.5 (1,000/2,000).

Here's the multiplier for each state, for the twelve months ending the last week of April:

Vermont 3.30
Oregon 1.79
Alaska 1.63
Utah 1.50
West Virginia 1.49
Arizona 1.47
Washington 1.46
Delaware 1.41
New Mexico 1.39
Virginia 1.38
California 1.38
Maine 1.35
Montana 1.35
Colorado 1.34
Georgia 1.33
North Carolina 1.32
Arkansas 1.30
Louisiana 1.26
Mississippi 1.26
Alabama 1.26
Nevada 1.25
Idaho 1.24
Florida 1.24
Connecticut 1.24
Tennessee 1.21
Texas 1.21
Michigan 1.20
Illinois 1.20
United States 1.19
Kentucky 1.17
Wyoming 1.13
Oklahoma 1.13
South Carolina 1.09
Wisconsin 1.09
Kansas 1.08
Minnesota 1.03
Missouri 1.01
Ohio 0.97
New York 0.96
Pennsylvania 0.96
Iowa 0.94
Indiana 0.92
New Hampshire 0.86
Hawaii 0.79
Nebraska 0.79
Maryland 0.72
South Dakota 0.70
New Jersey 0.60
North Dakota 0.58
Rhode Island 0.54
Massachusetts 0.38

Note, that doesn't mean that Vermont had the most COVID deaths or Massachusetts the least. It's just that Vermont undercounted the most and Massachusetts overcounted the most. You would need to apply the multiplier to their claimed COVID death count to get the "adjusted COVID death count."

So, using that data, if Arizona announced that 100 people in their state died of COVID in a given week, the real number would probably be closer to 147. If Maryland announced 100 died of COVID in that week, the real number would likely be closer to 72. They could be reporting the same thing, and yet COVID could actually be killing twice as many people in Arizona, simply because AZ tends to decide gray-area calls against calling something a COVID death and Maryland tends to go the opposite direction and err on the side of including it.

On average, as you can see, the national trend has been to underreport, with a 1.19 multiplier. So, when the CDC says 1,000 Americans died of COVID in a week, it's probably more like 1,190.
Click to expand...

Excess deaths counts both the deaths because of COVID and the deaths caused by the response to COVID, which are 100% self inflicted if you still believe that America is a democracy, which it aint. Excess deaths caused by the response lay at the feet of the Failed Elite Class, they who abuse us.
 
Life is Golden said:
I think the Covid deaths were way over reported. If someone died in a car wreck, if they were positive it was counted as a Covid death. I think hospitals also got kick backs for Covid patients.
Click to expand...

I know that's a pet theory thrown around on Fox News. The question is whether it's actually true. The data I'm pointing to is a reality check on that. Here's the source:

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

If you play around in that data, for a while, you'll realize a few things:

(1) Before COVID, state mortality rates were remarkably consistent from year to year. Because of that, the CDC's predicted deaths by state were remarkably close on an annual basis (like +/- 3%, and usually even closer than that.)
(2) When COVID happened, that changed, with mortality about 17% above the CDC projections for the country as a whole, and more like 25%+ in some states.
(3) Those excess deaths were significantly greater in number than the self-reported COVID deaths. In fact, over the last year, we've had 1.19 excess deaths, nationally, for every reported COVID death.

The simplest explanation for that is that, on average, officials are UNDER-reporting COVID deaths.

It's simply not true that the way it worked is that if someone died while COVID-positive it counted as a COVID death. It all came down to what the coroner listed, and if the coroners in some states wanted to minimize the role of COVID, they could simply keep COVID out of the cause of death attribution.

You brought up a car accident, so that's a good example. Let's say someone got into a car accident, then caught COVID while recovering in the ICU, and then drown in his own fluids thanks to that infection. Some officials would say he'd never have been there if not for the car accident, so that was the cause of death, even if he would have recovered if not for the COVID infection.

Another scenario would be a situation where a person dies after recovering from COVID, but from a condition caused or exacerbated by COVID. Like the person is COVID negative at the time of death, but thanks to a bad COVID infection three months earlier, had terrible scarring on his arteries, and then died of a blood clot. He'd probably still be alive if not for COVID, but he was COVID negative at the time of death and so probably won't be listed as a COVID death.

As my data shows, states are erring in both directions, but more are undercounting than are overcounting, resulting in the nation as a whole undercounting significantly.
 
Last edited:
Celticguy said:
actual data can be found here (based on death certificate) no need to reinvent the wheel.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm
Click to expand...

If you think those self-identified numbers are accurate, what is your explanation for the gigantic differences in excess deaths from one state to another, when those aren't accounted for by the self-identified COVID numbers?

So what's going on, exactly, if it's not over-reporting vs. under-reporting, as I've suggested? For example, if Massachusetts really has as many COVID deaths as it's claiming, why has its mortality rate been barely higher than before the pandemic? And on the flip side, if Alaska has as few COVID deaths as it's claiming, why has its mortality rate been vastly higher than before the pandemic?
 
Hawkeye10 said:
Excess deaths counts both the deaths because of COVID and the deaths caused by the response to COVID.....
Click to expand...

That's one of the great things about the excess death data -- it allows us to check on the pet theories of right-wingers, who predicted that efforts to fight COVID, like lockdowns or vaccines, would wind up killing more people than COVID itself. Obviously, if that were the case, we'd expect the highest excess deaths to be in places that were more aggressive about counter measures (generally, liberal northeastern states), while the lowest excess deaths would be in more laissez faire places like TX, MS, AZ, etc. Sadly for the right-wingers, the data shows the opposite. It's in places where fewer countermeasures were used that excess deaths are highest, while the places that were more aggressive about fighting COVID came away with mortality that isn't all that much higher than their pre-COVID trends (especially after the availability of vaccines).

So, in that sense, you're correct that the excess deaths were caused by the failed elite class -- members of the elite class like Greg Abbott, Ron DeSantis, and Doug Ducey have a lot of corpses strewn at their feet.
 
Mina said:
I know that's a pet theory thrown around on Fox News. The question is whether it's actually true. The data I'm pointing to is a reality check on that. Here's the source:

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

If you play around in that data, for a while, you'll realize a few things:

(1) Before COVID, state mortality rates were remarkably consistent from year to year. Because of that, the CDC's predicted deaths by state were remarkably close on an annual basis (like +/- 3%, and usually even closer than that.)
(2) When COVID happened, that changed, with mortality about 17% above the CDC projections for the country as a whole, and more like 25%+ in some states.
(3) Those excess deaths were significantly greater in number than the self-reported COVID deaths. In fact, over the last year, we've had 1.19 excess deaths, nationally, for every reported COVID death.

The simplest explanation for that is that, on average, officials are UNDER-reporting COVID deaths.

It's simply not true that the way it worked is that if someone died while COVID-positive it counted as a COVID death. It all came down to what the coroner listed, and if the coroners in some states wanted to minimize the role of COVID, they could simply keep COVID out of the cause of death attribution.

You brought up a car accident, so that's a good example. Let's say someone got into a car accident, then caught COVID while recovering in the ICU, and then drown in his own fluids thanks to that infection. Some officials would say he'd never have been there if not for the car accident, so that was the cause of death, even if he would have recovered if not for the COVID infection.

Another scenario would be a situation where a person dies after recovering from COVID, but from a condition caused or exacerbated by COVID. Like the person is COVID negative at the time of death, but thanks to a bad COVID infection three months earlier, had terrible scarring on his arteries, and then died of a blood clot. He'd probably still be alive if not for COVID, but he was COVID negative at the time of death and so probably won't be listed as a COVID death.

As my data shows, states are erring in both directions, but more are undercounting than are overcounting, resulting in the nation as a whole undercounting significantly.
Click to expand...
I was basing it on incidents I've read which happened in Florida. I don't even watch FOX or any news channels anymore, except the local news. I got too burned out on it.

https://cbs12.com/news/local/man-wh...h-counted-as-covid-19-death-in-florida-report
 
Mina said:
That's one of the great things about the excess death data -- it allows us to check on the pet theories of right-wingers, who predicted that efforts to fight COVID, like lockdowns or vaccines, would wind up killing more people than COVID itself. Obviously, if that were the case, we'd expect the highest excess deaths to be in places that were more aggressive about counter measures (generally, liberal northeastern states), while the lowest excess deaths would be in more laissez faire places like TX, MS, AZ, etc. Sadly for the right-wingers, the data shows the opposite. It's in places where fewer countermeasures were used that excess deaths are highest, while the places that were more aggressive about fighting COVID came away with mortality that isn't all that much higher than their pre-COVID trends (especially after the availability of vaccines).

So, in that sense, you're correct that the excess deaths were caused by the failed elite class -- members of the elite class like Greg Abbott, Ron DeSantis, and Doug Ducey have a lot of corpses strewn at their feet.
Click to expand...

The excess deaths will be counted over years, even 20 years from now we will likely be seeing deaths the came early because we shut down the medical system to everything that was not either COVID or an emergency, so for instance cancer death rates will likely take off. Then too there is the lose of hope and connection and desire to stay alive, and the horrific treatment of the children during COVID, a lot of these kids will never recover, they have been harmed for life.

But: COVID data in America is so shit that excess deaths are the best numbers that we have.
 
I will mention again that Geert is still very concerned that SARS-COV2 will because of the idiotic Max Vax Program evolve into a mass casualty event, and we know for sure that the JABS are themselves much more dangerous than advertised. The Jabs might on their own eventually cause a mass casualty event.

This is nowhere near over.



https://www.voiceforscienceandsolidarity.org/
 
Mina said:
If you think those self-identified numbers are accurate, what is your explanation for the gigantic differences in excess deaths from one state to another, when those aren't accounted for by the self-identified COVID numbers?

So what's going on, exactly, if it's not over-reporting vs. under-reporting, as I've suggested? For example, if Massachusetts really has as many COVID deaths as it's claiming, why has its mortality rate been barely higher than before the pandemic? And on the flip side, if Alaska has as few COVID deaths as it's claiming, why has its mortality rate been vastly higher than before the pandemic?
Click to expand...

numbers were overstated in an attempt to scare people into doing useless things so that it would seem as if the state was "doing something" about it.

CDC knew from the start that it was just going to have to play itself out. Thats why their initial stance was that masks were of no value and that the goal should be "flatten the curve". The "curve" being the volume of people in some form of care at the same time. Nobody thought a vaccine was attainable in any quick way.

States differed simply because they have always differed in how they collect data.
 
Celticguy said:
numbers were overstated in an attempt to scare people into doing useless things so that it would seem as if the state was "doing something" about it.

CDC knew from the start that it was just going to have to play itself out. Thats why their initial stance was that masks were of no value and that the goal should be "flatten the curve". The "curve" being the volume of people in some form of care at the same time. Nobody thought a vaccine was attainable in any quick way.

States differed simply because they have always differed in how they collect data.
Click to expand...

If the the bug does not kill a whole lot of people down the road then the COVID response to include the idiotic Max Vax Program will almost certainly kill many many times the number of people the bug does.
 
Life is Golden said:
I think the Covid deaths were way over reported. If someone died in a car wreck, if they were positive it was counted as a Covid death. I think hospitals also got kick backs for Covid patients.
Click to expand...

bs-bs-meter.gif


Can we please stop the bullshit?
 
It is impossible for the COVID information and data to be so shit by accident, by way of incompetence, this was done intentionally.

We have been betrayed.
 
Mina said:
Every state counts COVID deaths differently. A few report something as a COVID death if the dead person was COVID positive and COVID might have contributed to the death. So, they end up over-counting. Far more states err on the side of exclusion, by declining to report a COVID death unless it's very clear the death would not otherwise have occurred. So, they end up under-counting.

Because of that, I've instead relied on excess death figures. Before COVID, the CDC was very good at predicting how many people would die in a particular state over a particular time simply by projecting forward past mortality rates, so comparing their pre-pandemic projected deaths with the actual death counts, you can get a pretty good feel for how many COVID has killed in each state.

What you can also do with that data is figure out how much a particular state has been "overcounting" or "undercounting," simply by comparing the number of excess deaths in the state to the number of COVID deaths they've counted.

So, for instance, if the CDC predicted 5,000 people would die in a state during a given year, based on pre-pandemic mortality trends, and 6,000 actually died, then that's 1,000 excess deaths. If the state reported 500 COVID deaths, that suggests they probably were undercounting by half, and their "COVID Multiplier" would be 2 (1,000/500). If, on the other hand, they reported 2,000 COVID deaths, that suggests they were probably overcounting and their multiplier would be 0.5 (1,000/2,000).

Here's the multiplier for each state, for the twelve months ending the last week of April:

Vermont 3.30
Oregon 1.79
Alaska 1.63
Utah 1.50
West Virginia 1.49
Arizona 1.47
Washington 1.46
Delaware 1.41
New Mexico 1.39
Virginia 1.38
California 1.38
Maine 1.35
Montana 1.35
Colorado 1.34
Georgia 1.33
North Carolina 1.32
Arkansas 1.30
Louisiana 1.26
Mississippi 1.26
Alabama 1.26
Nevada 1.25
Idaho 1.24
Florida 1.24
Connecticut 1.24
Tennessee 1.21
Texas 1.21
Michigan 1.20
Illinois 1.20
United States 1.19
Kentucky 1.17
Wyoming 1.13
Oklahoma 1.13
South Carolina 1.09
Wisconsin 1.09
Kansas 1.08
Minnesota 1.03
Missouri 1.01
Ohio 0.97
New York 0.96
Pennsylvania 0.96
Iowa 0.94
Indiana 0.92
New Hampshire 0.86
Hawaii 0.79
Nebraska 0.79
Maryland 0.72
South Dakota 0.70
New Jersey 0.60
North Dakota 0.58
Rhode Island 0.54
Massachusetts 0.38

Note, that doesn't mean that Vermont had the most COVID deaths or Massachusetts the least. It's just that Vermont undercounted the most and Massachusetts overcounted the most. You would need to apply the multiplier to their claimed COVID death count to get the "adjusted COVID death count."

So, using that data, if Arizona announced that 100 people in their state died of COVID in a given week, the real number would probably be closer to 147. If Maryland announced 100 died of COVID in that week, the real number would likely be closer to 72. They could be reporting the same thing, and yet COVID could actually be killing twice as many people in Arizona, simply because AZ tends to decide gray-area calls against calling something a COVID death and Maryland tends to go the opposite direction and err on the side of including it.

On average, as you can see, the national trend has been to underreport, with a 1.19 multiplier. So, when the CDC says 1,000 Americans died of COVID in a week, it's probably more like 1,190.
Click to expand...

You are a massive fuckwit. Once again you cancelled your own argument out. Stop being an idiot.
 
Life is Golden said:
I was basing it on incidents I've read which happened in Florida. I don't even watch FOX or any news channels anymore, except the local news. I got too burned out on it.

https://cbs12.com/news/local/man-wh...h-counted-as-covid-19-death-in-florida-report
Click to expand...

Well, those anecdotes may be true or not, but the issue, obviously, isn't whether there might have been isolated motivations to overcount, but rather whether, NET people were overcounting or undercounting. If some had motivations to overcount and some to undercount, but the latter had a much bigger impact, then there were more COVID cases than acknowledged in the official counts. And that appears to be the case, given the fact the total mortality rates during the pandemic are significantly higher than they should be given the number of acknowledged COVID deaths.
 
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