Alexandros Marinos
There is a fundamental paradigm shift that the democrats have not yet adjusted to. How fast they adjust will determine if they survive and how long it will take them to come to power again. Early protestants rebelled against a top-down, corrupt authority that had lost its legitimacy with the people. That's not to say that the protestants were saints, but that the "sola scriptura" paradigm of encouraging people to read the bible themselves and make their own conclusions instead of trusting the priests is a direct analog of "do your own research" today. The Trump 2.0 coalition is composed of people who can make their own conclusions and defend their own opinions on the merits, not because some expert said so. Elon, RFKjr, JD Vance, Tulsi will not always agree, and that's a good thing, because without uniformity of opinion, you don't get censorship.the Democrats on the other hand have atrophied their ability to even evaluate reality independently. The people who were independent minded have moved to the MAGA side, and those who operate by elite consensus (*cough* neocons *cough*) have left the Republican party and joined the Democrats this cycle.The problem is that elite opinion has beclowned itself over and over and over throughout the last few years. It has little to no pull on the public anymore, and for good reason. Russiagate, Afghan withdrawal, COVID, "too big to fail", lawfare, and the censorship enacted to keep the other lies viable, have all demonstrated just how broken the paradigm of depending on elite-minded, carreer experts who benefit from telling elites what they want to hear. That paradigm is dead and we're not going back.So for the Democratic party to become competitive again, it will have to find a way to embrace the voices that can compose and defend a worldview on first principes, not edicts. And unfortunately for them, they've been busy purging exactly those people for the last decade or longer.Following the protestant reformation analogy, the Democrats will need their own counter-reformation if they want to survive. Acknowledge the most eggregious errors, fix obvious procedural issues, change the tone and attitude of their engagement with the people, and purge the most obvious shills.I see many people trying to latch on to one issue or another. "It's the trans thing!", "It's the economy!", "It's the censorship!", "It's the anti-semitism/It's the genocide!", "It's kamala!", "It's Ukraine!", "It's Rogan!" they say. And the truth is, it's all of these and yet none of them specifically. All or most of these are symptoms of the loss of conviction in one's own opinions and will to lead from the front. The refusal to even put together a quasi-coherent world-model that isn't obviously batshit insane. My prediction is that the Democrats are in for a long period in the wilderness. Much like Clinton pulled them out of a 12-year stint in opposition, they need to find someone to undo the milquetoast "third way" technocratic nothingness that Clinton turned the Democrat ideology into. And it may well take them 8 or 12 years to find that kind of leadership.