Does Bernie still have a chance?

cawacko said:
I get that, I'm just trying to understand Jarod's position. Especially in light of the article you posted.
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True, but, so many other leftist sources remain defiant and/or dismissive of the situation she is faced with. Well, the article does concede that many of her supporters are fatigued with Clinton scandals that have gone nowhere (except for Bill ultimately getting disbarred for his perjury). Frankly, the argument that Bernie is more electable should have more traction than Douchebag Donald's opponents got, because, so many people don't really like her. I think that it shows that many Dems really don't like Bernmaster Sandy. If O'Malley was still in the race, or someone like Biden, Warren, etc. were in the race, I think people would immediately declare that candidate more electable and flock to them.
 
tsuke said:
you missed kasichs nickname. 1 in 50 kasich.
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It was 1 in 41 Kasich when given, and not all 50 states have voted, unless the sum of DC and the territories currently brings the total up to 50. Also, it's a really boring nickname that I have a difficult time feeling inspired to use.
 
I just want him to sweep the remaining primaries. Because, if that happens, then the convention will basically kick-off under the thick fog of extortion, because the Bernmaster Sandy crowd will definitely threaten to riot if they don't get their way under those circumstances.
 
Establishment said:
I just want him to sweep the remaining primaries. Because, if that happens, then the convention will basically kick-off under the thick fog of extortion, because the Bernmaster Sandy crowd will definitely threaten to riot if they don't get their way under those circumstances.
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Agreed. That is a distinct possibility. Especially if he wins Commifornia and she still gets more delegates. The uneducated democrat party voters, particularly Bernie voters will be off the chain over it. I want riots at the democrat convention
 
Teflon Don said:
He can't win the nomination based on the rules of the democrat party nomination as it stands
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Sure he can. All it takes us a revolt of the supers. They are nervous and while they don't want to jump, they will if they see the need. And they already have their excuse.
 
Establishment said:
True, but, so many other leftist sources remain defiant and/or dismissive of the situation she is faced with. Well, the article does concede that many of her supporters are fatigued with Clinton scandals that have gone nowhere (except for Bill ultimately getting disbarred for his perjury). Frankly, the argument that Bernie is more electable should have more traction than Douchebag Donald's opponents got, because, so many people don't really like her. I think that it shows that many Dems really don't like Bernmaster Sandy. If O'Malley was still in the race, or someone like Biden, Warren, etc. were in the race, I think people would immediately declare that candidate more electable and flock to them.
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the establishment backs Hillary and hates Bernie (you've seen it here with posters I will not name)
The Bernie boosters have at minimum disdain/disgust with Hillary..

It's a schism of politics and personalities
 
anatta said:
the establishment backs Hillary and hates Bernie (you've seen it here with posters I will not name)
The Bernie boosters have at minimum disdain/disgust with Hillary.

It's a schism of politics and personalities
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Yes it is. But so it was in the GOP but they came to realize that if they wanted to keep any semblance of their jobs they had to accept reality. The donkeys are capable of the same. If they believe Sanders has the best odds they can and will dump hrc.
 
Establishment said:
It was 1 in 41 Kasich when given, and not all 50 states have voted, unless the sum of DC and the territories currently brings the total up to 50. Also, it's a really boring nickname that I have a difficult time feeling inspired to use.
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honestly you are correct. Trump put 0 effort in kasichs nickname.
 
anatta said:
no. the supers have almost all broke for Clinton -even the few he would lose are more then offset by those he would gain
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yeah but lets say that you abolished supers. You just distributed them proportionally by state as Bernie wants. To get bernie to inch ahead of hillary you still have to have some of them flip and vote against the wishes of their state.

Its sad but even if you include the caucus numbers bernie is losing the vote.
 
PostmodernProphet said:
if the superdelegates don't vote for her, does Hillary have a chance of getting enough votes?......
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HRC is about 40 delegates of getting the nomination without Super delegates. If she wins New Jersey next week, as expected she will do that. California, even if she loses by a slim margin will absolutely put her over that number. She is the nominee.

I really would like to see Sanders win, but its been impossible for a while now, based on proportional states like California.

The best we can hope for now is maybe a Clinton Sanders ticket.
 
Celticguy said:
Yes, he does. If he pulls it out in California, Katie bar the door.
And Clinton knows it.
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Explain the math to me? How can winning California save Sanders chances? Remember California is a proportional State.
 
cawacko said:
So being the good right-winger I am I was listening to my KPFA Berkeley Free Speech Radio today and the topic was Bernie and that he still has a chance. They did say MSNBC told some Bernie people they were prepared to call the race on the 6th or the 7th for Hillary before voting had been completed in California. And they acknowledged it would probably suppress voting.

On Facebook or rare occasions like this I still read/listen to passionate Bernie supporters who haven't given up and want to fight this all the way to the convention. Clearly this board is different as several people said they support Bernie but don't seem to care much about him (in terms of wanting him to win or his supposed revolution).
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I think you are confused. The liberals on this board are generally realistic about math and candidates chances. I like Sanders and would love to see him win, but I have known for a while now that its almost impossible.... mathematically. If the rules at the Convention were changed and the bound delegates were somehow released and then they decided to go against who the voters pledged them to... then Sanders could win, but it would be very undemocratic.

I am sorry he has very little chance, but I would not support taking delegates from Clinton that voters gave to her.
 
dem-delegate-count-05-22.png


EDIT:

Pledged delegates: Clinton-1,769 Sanders-1,501

Superdelegates: Clinton- 544 sanders-45
 
cawacko said:
Ok Jarod, since you only want to talk about the horse race I'll endulge you. You claim to support Bernie, Bernie claims to have better poll numbers against Trump than Hillary yet you clearly are a far bigger Hillary fan. What gives?
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I am a bigger fan of Sanders, but I have moved on to the reality that Sanders lost the nomination over a month ago. ITs simply reality based. I want him to do well in California, I hope he wins because I believe the more influence he has on Clinton the better. It wont change the outcome.
 
theory: winning CA big flips the supers...except it won't..
because they are ALL party establishment locked into Hillary from before the process even began..

"It's a rigged game" (sanders)
 
Celticguy said:
Sure he can. All it takes us a revolt of the supers. They are nervous and while they don't want to jump, they will if they see the need. And they already have their excuse.
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No, she would have to lose California by 30% points or so, and Sanders would have to pull a dramatic upset in New Jersey.
 
anatta said:
theory: winning CA big flips the supers...except it won't..
because they are ALL party establishment locked into Hillary from before the process even began..

"It's a rigged game" (sanders)
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But.... she will have already won without the Supers. If she wins New Jersey, as widely expected, ALL the supers could flip and Sanders would still lose.
 
Jarod said:
But.... she will have already won without the Supers. If she wins New Jersey, as widely expected, ALL the supers could flip and Sanders would still lose.
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she's 520 ( or so) pledged delegates short going into next Tuesday. not counting supers either way.
 
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