Early assessments, Nuclear program not destroyed.

The Iranians are patient. They play the long game. Waiting 3.5 years is nothing to them. In the meantime, they can work on their rocket programs. Allegedly to launch "satellites for peaceful purposes".

Would Trump bomb Iran for making a rocket to launch communications satellites? No. That would ruin his Peace Prize ambitions.
What "peace prize ambitions"?????

If Iran resumes and rebuilds it's uranium refineries again, they will be bombed again. It's really very simple.
 
As this document about strategic bombing in WW 2 points out:


Destroying infrastructure of the sort involved in Iraq and nuclear weapons production is extremely difficult to achieve. It is unlikely the bombing did much more than disrupt the process by some months, maybe a year. The only sure way to keep Iran from making nuclear weapons is to invade, take the country over, and then wipe out in detail the whole of their means to make one. That isn't happening. So, the likelihood is Iran will become a nuclear power. The question then is, what will they do with nuclear weapons in their possession?
This document is entirely inapplicable.

The accuracy of the weapons was completely different, they were in open air factories which allowed blast waves to disappate through the weakest link, which was always the walls instead of heavy steel machinery.

The goal of collapsing an underground complex is to bury the equipment.

Giant gas centrifuges are not mobile, would have been nearly impossible to evacuate, and aren't found on convenience store shelves.
 
This document is entirely inapplicable.

The accuracy of the weapons was completely different, they were in open air factories which allowed blast waves to disappate through the weakest link, which was always the walls instead of heavy steel machinery.

The goal of collapsing an underground complex is to bury the equipment.

Giant gas centrifuges are not mobile, would have been nearly impossible to evacuate, and aren't found on convenience store shelves.
what is ironic and not understood by most, is that so called bunker busters are struggling to keep up with the technological advances in high tech cement production.

the one reason to be optimistic is the fragile nature of centrifuges themselves, but I agree with those that say nothing replaces actual inspections
 
Accept responsibility for what you post instead of making excuses and blaming others for doing what you're doing yourself.. It's clear who chooses to Continue to show hatred for President Trump in place of the respect for the team who carried out a very successful mission.... It's shameful and cowardly... And not unexpected...
What a horrible, illogical thing to say. Trump is an asshole. This mess is HIS fault. He wanted to take credit for the bombing. He went on TV way too soon and made claims that were not then, and are not now, substantiated.
How do you hate someone in place of someone else? I wish they would have refused the mission. We were not at war with Iran, and they bombed a nation at Trump's stupid orders. I am not proud of a sneak attack on another country. I thought America did not do things like that.
 
This document is entirely inapplicable.

The accuracy of the weapons was completely different, they were in open air factories which allowed blast waves to disappate through the weakest link, which was always the walls instead of heavy steel machinery.

Wrong. It is applicable. Greater weapons accuracy means fewer are needed to reach a level of damage, that's all. The problem is that smacking a direct hit on say a building with heavy machinery in it doesn't mean the machinery is all destroyed. Instead, what often happens is the destruction of the building is equated with destruction of the equipment and that often isn't the case.
The goal of collapsing an underground complex is to bury the equipment.

And that works until the bad guys dig it out, find it's intact more or less, and put it back into service there or somewhere else.
Giant gas centrifuges are not mobile, would have been nearly impossible to evacuate, and aren't found on convenience store shelves.

I can't say how vulnerable to damage they are, but it they're intact even if the building they're in is destroyed, then you didn't take the target out. The damage is cosmetic and superficial. The USSBS discussed this at length as it was a primary finding from examining bombing damage close up.

This is a bombed German factory.

FnLYRm_WABomXY6.jpg


Do the vehicles in production look destroyed to you? I'm sure production was disrupted to one degree or another, but it wasn't destroyed.
 
How could you possibly know what they're doing under a mountain?
I dont, that is the point.
Agreed...and neither does DUI Pete nor General Caine.

They can view the damage to the outside of the mountain and even collapsed entrances. Scientists can calculate the physics, but without knowing what the inside looks like or how it was constructed, it'd be very difficult to know how much damage was done.

No doubt spy satellites will keep an eye on the area to look for activity. Much of which the Iranians can simply say they are removing bodies, not rebuilding. Also, as mentioned earlier, the Iranians are very patient. They can bribe, flatter and wheedle a peace deal out of Trump, specifically hoping to lift the sanctions which cost them $100B/year. With the money and after 5-10 years, they can go back to rebuilding.

In the meantime, they can work on their "satellite" rocket program.
 
And that works until the bad guys dig it out, find it's intact more or less, and put it back into service there or somewhere else.
They can't dig it out and hide from satellites at the same time. Their only option is to try and build a new facility with new centrifuges, in other words 'start over', and yea Iran is a big place and if nobody stops them they can just keep trying; but that doesn't mean it isn't worth it to reset the clock.

It's a lot more efficient than trying to take out every ball bearing factory that's for sure.


Do the vehicles in production look destroyed to you? I'm sure production was disrupted to one degree or another, but it wasn't destroyed.
If tools are destroyed that is production destroyed. You don't bomb factories to destroy the things they are building at the moment you bomb factories to stop the production of more things.

You can't repackage the obvious fact that eventually everything can be rebuilt as "it's pointless".

If the same ordinance that was dropped in WW2 was done with the accuracy of a modern laser guided bombs they would have ended the industrial existence of the axis in ten days.

There is no question it hurt their production, the only question is whether it was worth the price, i.e. would the allies have won faster if they put all those resources into fighters and close air support planes.

The modern west places a much higher value (due to political infighting) on soldiers lives than currency, so it would have to be freaking expensive to not be worth it compared to even special forces infiltration.
 
I dont, that is the point.
I don't think that point is helping you.

"oh so you built a secret bunker we can't inspect after promising not to build nuclear weapons, I guess we can just assume you're 100% honest inbetween the 'death to america' chants."

No.

Only an insane person would think Iran can be trusted. Therefore only an insane person think a deal with no mechanism of enforcement means anything.

The only reliable fact about the Obama deal was that american taxpayers were being stolen from to pay people who chant 'death to america'.
 
what is ironic and not understood by most, is that so called bunker busters are struggling to keep up with the technological advances in high tech cement production.

the one reason to be optimistic is the fragile nature of centrifuges themselves, but I agree with those that say nothing replaces actual inspections
Fordow was started in 2003
Wrong. It is applicable. Greater weapons accuracy means fewer are needed to reach a level of damage, that's all. The problem is that smacking a direct hit on say a building with heavy machinery in it doesn't mean the machinery is all destroyed. Instead, what often happens is the destruction of the building is equated with destruction of the equipment and that often isn't the case.


And that works until the bad guys dig it out, find it's intact more or less, and put it back into service there or somewhere else.


I can't say how vulnerable to damage they are, but it they're intact even if the building they're in is destroyed, then you didn't take the target out. The damage is cosmetic and superficial. The USSBS discussed this at length as it was a primary finding from examining bombing damage close up.

This is a bombed German factory.

FnLYRm_WABomXY6.jpg


Do the vehicles in production look destroyed to you? I'm sure production was disrupted to one degree or another, but it wasn't destroyed.
Centrifuges aren't as durable as tanks.
 
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