Forecast for US Recession Within Year Hits 100%

Life is Golden

Life is Golden

It's Morning in America Again
(Bloomberg) -- A US recession is effectively certain in the next 12 months in new Bloomberg Economics model projections, a blow to President Joe Biden’s economic messaging ahead of the November midterms.

The latest recession probability models by Bloomberg economists Anna Wong and Eliza Winger forecast a higher recession probability across all timeframes, with the 12-month estimate of a downturn by October 2023 hitting 100%, up from 65% for the comparable period in the previous update.

The forecast will be unwelcome news for Biden, who has repeatedly said the US will avoid a recession and that any downturn would be “very slight,” as he seeks to reassure Americans the economy is on solid footing under his administration.

But tightening financial conditions, persistent inflation and expectations of a hawkish Federal Reserve pressing ahead with rate hikes are raising the risk of a contraction.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/mar...in-year-hits-100-in-blow-to-biden/ar-AA133nzh
 
Life is Golden said:
(Bloomberg) -- A US recession is effectively certain in the next 12 months in new Bloomberg Economics model projections, a blow to President Joe Biden’s economic messaging ahead of the November midterms.

The latest recession probability models by Bloomberg economists Anna Wong and Eliza Winger forecast a higher recession probability across all timeframes, with the 12-month estimate of a downturn by October 2023 hitting 100%, up from 65% for the comparable period in the previous update.

The forecast will be unwelcome news for Biden, who has repeatedly said the US will avoid a recession and that any downturn would be “very slight,” as he seeks to reassure Americans the economy is on solid footing under his administration.

But tightening financial conditions, persistent inflation and expectations of a hawkish Federal Reserve pressing ahead with rate hikes are raising the risk of a contraction.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/mar...in-year-hits-100-in-blow-to-biden/ar-AA133nzh
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Sounds about right. Several years of a global pandemic and Putin's War were certain to have a negative impact on the global economy.

From Sept 15, 2022
https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/p...on-in-2023-rises-amid-simultaneous-rate-hikes
Risk of Global Recession in 2023 Rises Amid Simultaneous Rate Hikes
As central banks across the world simultaneously hike interest rates in response to inflation, the world may be edging toward a global recession in 2023 and a string of financial crises in emerging market and developing economies that would do them lasting harm, according to a comprehensive new study by the World Bank.

Central banks around the world have been raising interest rates this year with a degree of synchronicity not seen over the past five decades—a trend that is likely to continue well into next year, according to the report. Yet the currently expected trajectory of interest-rate increases and other policy actions may not be sufficient to bring global inflation back down to levels seen before the pandemic. Investors expect central banks to raise global monetary-policy rates to almost 4 percent through 2023—an increase of more than 2 percentage points over their 2021 average.
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Dutch Uncle said:
Sounds about right. Several years of a global pandemic and Putin's War were certain to have a negative impact on the global economy.

From Sept 15, 2022
https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/p...on-in-2023-rises-amid-simultaneous-rate-hikes
Risk of Global Recession in 2023 Rises Amid Simultaneous Rate Hikes
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:magagrin:

Youre attempted muddying of the waters wont help. In plain English....People dont give a Fuck. The buck stops with Biden and the D's. THAT is how people see it. Biden and the D;s will be crushed and all the smokescreens in the world wont help them one damn bit. TOAST. ;)
 
Stone said:
Youre attempted muddying of the waters wont help. In plain English....People dont give a Fuck. The buck stops with Biden and the D's. THAT is how people see it. Biden and the D;s will be crushed and all the smokescreens in the world wont help them one damn bit. TOAST. ;)
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Not about China though, Very few Americans understand what is going on, for instance almost nobody here does.
 
christiefan915 said:
I'm glad you mentioned that the risk is global, not national. I suspect Minty's teeing up some harsh criticism of Biden with the OP.
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Concrete thinkers tend to only see as far as the end of their nose. Abstract thinkers like yourself can see how a global economy is tied to global events.

Notice the Trump wackadoodles never talk about China's economy unless it's something negative for the USA. The dumbasses also believe COVID is a US hoax, not a global pandemic.

https://www.adb.org/news/economic-growth-peoples-republic-china-moderate-3-3-2022
Economic Growth in People’s Republic of China to Moderate to 3.3% in 2022
168476-adou-2022-gdp-prc.jpg
 
I listened to my Grandparents when they talked about the Great Depression....unlike almost everyone else I have some idea of what is coming.
 
well considering we cleared that bar in the 2nd qtr its not exactly them going out on a limb.

the only real change is that they're saying 2022 where they had been saying 2023.

they have come to realize that with all the bubbles letting go that pretending otherwise just looks stupid so lets go ahead and get it over and done.

only problem is they are not accepting that this time around is different. very different. painfully different.
 
Hawkeye10 said:
I listened to my Grandparents when they talked about the Great Depression....unlike almost everyone else I have some idea of what is coming.
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Maybe you should step off a ledge and beat the rush? It was popular back in your granddaddy's time.

giphy.gif
 
Celticguy said:
well considering we cleared that bar in the 2nd qtr its not exactly them going out on a limb.

the only real change is that they're saying 2022 where they had been saying 2023.

they have come to realize that with all the bubbles letting go that pretending otherwise just looks stupid so lets go ahead and get it over and done.

only problem is they are not accepting that this time around is different. very different. painfully different.
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The people are generally too shit quality to handle what is coming...we have had way way too long of the easy "I dont give a fuck, everything is always fine in the end" living.
 
Hawkeye10 said:
I listened to my Grandparents when they talked about the Great Depression....unlike almost everyone else I have some idea of what is coming.
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yeah my folks grew up in the Depression (and obviously my grandparents as well). and you could very easily see the profound difference it made in their lives.
 
Celticguy said:
yeah my folks grew up in the Depression (and obviously my grandparents as well). and you could very easily see the profound difference it made in their lives.
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They were proud of how well everyone came together and managed.

There is zero chance that happens this time.

Which the Chinese have figured out.

Now is the time to push.
 
Celticguy said:
yeah my folks grew up in the Depression (and obviously my grandparents as well). and you could very easily see the profound difference it made in their lives.
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The Greatest Generation?

Do you really think Americans of today have the spine your folks had back then?
 
Hawkeye10 said:
The people are generally too shit quality to handle what is coming...we have had way way too long of the easy "I dont give a fuck, everything is always fine in the end" living.
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aint no sending councilors out on the sidewalk to make the people trying to sell pencils feel better or participation ribbons.

if you think there are a lot of beggers at traffic intersections now (and I'm seeing way more dont know about you), just wait.
 
Hawkeye10 said:
They were proud of how well everyone came together and managed.

There is zero chance that happens this time.

Which the Chinese have figured out.

Now is the time to push.
Click to expand...

nothing like a World War to get people to straighten up and fly right. and martial law makes everything so god damned easy.

I wonder if EU will hitch their wagon to Russia or us... hmmm ? Good reasons to chose either one.
 
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