Dutch Uncle
* Tertia Optio * Defend the Constitution
^^^
QED. Adverse to facts. Sad.
Forecast for US Recession Within Year Hits 100%
- Thread starter Life is Golden
- Start date
QED. Adverse to facts. Sad.
ExpressLane
Verified User
More compelling data.
cawacko
Well-known member
In a previous life I worked for one of CRE's largest investment management firms. We had $50 billion in AUM. Our clients included CalPERS, CalSTRS, Alaska Permanent Fud, Ohio Teachers etc. (some of the largest pensions funds in the country). And I got to sit in on meetings where our chief economist was speaking to our clients.More compelling data.
As you might imagine, it's a rather serious environment and when speaking on the economy and historical economic performance our economist didn't get into President's or political party's. That wasn't what it was about.
But me having the issues I do, I can remember sitting in a couple of these meetings thinking how people on JPP might react to this because it doesn't line up nicely with our partisan preferences or narratives.
One example of course is 2000 and the dot com bust that led to the March 2001 recession. (These meetings were in the 2007 - 2008 time frame.) The data is what it is, the bubble burst in 2000 and we went into recession in March 2001. But that doesn't fit nicely with the claim that Democrats handed Republicans 'good and growing economies' each time in the 21st century.
Can you imagine standing up in such a meeting and trying to tell the economist this data is wrong based on the above argument? Haha.
And yet there was no recession. Your prediction was false.
How about the mega recession where food was going to run out, almost a year ago? Or the thousands of Americans who died in numerous wars that never happened?
I have no idea what you are babbling about....I did promote Yon talking about a coming mass global famine and the fertilizer shortage problems but I dont recall predicting that he is right.
As for wars that never happened....WUT?
The odd part about saying there is a 90% probability is that it is hard to prove him wrong. It did not happen, but maybe that is just because it was the 10% chance that he allowed for.
I think he was wrong about saying that there was a 90% chance, but cannot prove it conclusively. There was definitely no recession.
Althea
Althea told me...........
Yup. Once again, trump inherits a strong economy that he will initially claim is a mess, only to take credit for Biden's achievement. That being the cleanup of trump's astronomical mess.
Althea
Althea told me...........
You should probably fire him. Was he moving you into bonds at the time?
I wonder who will clean up after trump's much worse second term?Yup. Once again, trump inherits a strong economy that he will initially claim is a mess, only to take credit for Biden's achievement. That being the cleanup of trump's astronomical mess.
T. A. Gardner
Thread Killer
Depends on how you define one.
In 2022 the Biden Administration changed how a recession is defined to ensure that the shitty economic situation didn't get called a recession--at least officially.
Fact Check: Did The White House 'Change Definition of Recession'?
A White House blog says recession is too narrowly defined, just as latest GDP figures are about to land. Some saw the post as an attempt to muddy the waters.
www.newsweek.com
White House challenges common definition of ‘recession’ — here’s what to know - Washington Examiner
The definition of a recession is a political fault line ahead of the release Thursday of gross domestic product numbers for the second quarter. Thursday's report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis could show a second quarter in a row of negative GDP growth. Commonly, a recession is understood...
www.washingtonexaminer.com
Wikipedia Suspends Editing of Recession Page as Biden Rejects Claims
Editing of the 'recession' page on Wikipedia after new figures showed the US has entered an unofficial economic recession.
www.newsweek.com
Now, all the apologists and people who wanted the Biden administration to look good claim that redefining a recession isn't redefining a recession... Hell, Wikipedia had to block changing the page defining an economic recession because the Biden administration was going in and changing it to fit their situation.
Althea
Althea told me...........
They've had 5 years to lay the groundwork for continued vote suppression. Imagine how bad it will be in another 4?
North Carolina denies Republican request to disqualify 60,000 votes in state supreme court race
Board turns away challenges to voters whose registrations Republicans targeted because they lacked social security or driver’s license number
www.theguardian.com
I am hoping that even with voter suppression that voters will see what trump does, and judge the party of trump based on that.They've had 5 years to lay the groundwork for continued vote suppression. Imagine how bad it will be in another 4?
North Carolina denies Republican request to disqualify 60,000 votes in state supreme court race
Board turns away challenges to voters whose registrations Republicans targeted because they lacked social security or driver’s license number
*YAWN* You haver a conspiracy theory.
cawacko
Well-known member
All the conspiracy theorists on this board aside, they will. The same way they judged Trump in 2020 and Biden (Harris) in 2024.
Althea
Althea told me...........
When trump is not on the ballot, we'll see if the millions of morons who only voted because of him come out again. Or if the moron spite voters then blame him for Palestine/Israel? Corporate profits?