Forecast for US Recession Within Year Hits 100%

[Into the Night]

(Bloomberg) -- A US recession is effectively certain in the next 12 months in new Bloomberg Economics model projections, a blow to President Joe Biden’s economic messaging ahead of the November midterms.

The latest recession probability models by Bloomberg economists Anna Wong and Eliza Winger forecast a higher recession probability across all timeframes, with the 12-month estimate of a downturn by October 2023 hitting 100%, up from 65% for the comparable period in the previous update.

The forecast will be unwelcome news for Biden, who has repeatedly said the US will avoid a recession and that any downturn would be “very slight,” as he seeks to reassure Americans the economy is on solid footing under his administration.

But tightening financial conditions, persistent inflation and expectations of a hawkish Federal Reserve pressing ahead with rate hikes are raising the risk of a contraction.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/mar...in-year-hits-100-in-blow-to-biden/ar-AA133nzh

The country is already in economic depression and has been since DEMOCRATS started it in 2019.

 

[Into the Night]

Sounds about right. Several years of a global pandemic and Putin's War were certain to have a negative impact on the global economy.

From Sept 15, 2022
https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/p...on-in-2023-rises-amid-simultaneous-rate-hikes
Risk of Global Recession in 2023 Rises Amid Simultaneous Rate Hikes

Irrelevant. Putin did not cause the current economic depression.

 

[Into the Night]

Concrete thinkers tend to only see as far as the end of their nose. Abstract thinkers like yourself can see how a global economy is tied to global events.

Notice the Trump wackadoodles never talk about China's economy unless it's something negative for the USA. The dumbasses also believe COVID is a US hoax, not a global pandemic.

https://www.adb.org/news/economic-growth-peoples-republic-china-moderate-3-3-2022
Economic Growth in People’s Republic of China to Moderate to 3.3% in 2022

Covid fear mongering is a hoax.
The current economic depression in the States was caused by DEMOCRATS and is NOT a global event.

 

[Into the Night]

Jobs report shock: American economy added a stunning 336,000 jobs in September

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/business/live-news/markets-jobs-report-september/index.html

Same made up numbers.

 

[Into the Night]

yeah my folks grew up in the Depression (and obviously my grandparents as well). and you could very easily see the profound difference it made in their lives.

...and we are in an economic depression right now. This one was started by Democrats, just like the Great Depression was.

 

[Walt]

Forecast for US Recession Within Year Hits 100%

Well, we all know this turned out 100% wrong. I was making a more reasonable prediction at the time: there was a 50/50 chance of a mild recession, and the rest of the odds were of a slight slowdown, but not an actual recession. As it turns out, we did better than I expect, and now there is a less than 50% chance of even a mild recession.

The more honest part of the problem with some of these models is that they look for quick changes in the economy, and assume only recessions have quick changes. That turned out to be a wrong assumption in this economy.

The other obvious problem is Republicans are desperate for anything to make trump look like less of a failure.

 

[Walt]

Filed Under: Duh

Hawkeye is completely wrong... AGAIN!!!

 

[Walt]

I listened to my Grandparents when they talked about the Great Depression....unlike almost everyone else I have some idea of what is coming.

You think severe deflation, and extreme consumer saving is coming? Somehow I doubt that.

The current economic depression in the States was caused by DEMOCRATS and is NOT a global event.

America is fairing the best in the world. We are beating China in growth for the first time in 30 years, and on and on. I am not saying we are doing better than everyone else because we Democrats, and the rest of the world does not... But I am observing we have Democrats, and the rest of the world does not.

This one was started by Democrats, just like the Great Depression was.

Republicans controlled the White House for 8 years, and both houses of Congress for 10 years before the Great Depression. It is hard to make a logical argument blaming the Democrats for starting the Great Depression.

 

[Walt]

if you think there are a lot of beggers at traffic intersections now (and I'm seeing way more dont know about you), just wait.

I drive through Trenton from time to time(to get to other places), and see a lot of beggars at intersections there. Trenton is less than 10% non-Hispanic white, with the remainder evenly divided between Blacks and Hispanics. I have never seen a Black, or Hispanic beggar at the Trenton intersections. They are all white.

I have seen Black beggars close to the Trenton train station, or walking around close to the government buildings, but the beggars blocking intersections are all white. I really do not know why.

 

[Dutch Uncle]

Covid fear mongering is a hoax.
The current economic depression in the States was caused by DEMOCRATS and is NOT a global event.

Fearmongering is always about manipulation even if partially true. Only a fucking psycho believes COVID isn't a disease.

Mantra 41 Idiocracy

Mantra 1a.

Mantra 4a.

One of the "miscellaneous" documents on that site is Into the Night's mantra list.

 

[Into the Night]

Well, we all know this turned out 100% wrong. I was making a more reasonable prediction at the time: there was a 50/50 chance of a mild recession, and the rest of the odds were of a slight slowdown, but not an actual recession. As it turns out, we did better than I expect, and now there is a less than 50% chance of even a mild recession.

The more honest part of the problem with some of these models is that they look for quick changes in the economy, and assume only recessions have quick changes. That turned out to be a wrong assumption in this economy.

The other obvious problem is Republicans are desperate for anything to make trump look like less of a failure.

Trump didn't fail. Avarice.

 

[Into the Night]

You think severe deflation, and extreme consumer saving is coming? Somehow I doubt that.

Deflation is not economic depression. Almost all depressions since and including the Great Depression was marked by high inflation, and all caused by Democrats.

America is fairing the best in the world.

Blatant lie.

We are beating China in growth for the first time in 30 years, and on and on.

Wow. I see you can jump a low curb. Meh.

I am not saying we are doing better than everyone else because we Democrats, and the rest of the world does not... But I am observing we have Democrats, and the rest of the world does not.

Try English. It works better.

Republicans controlled the White House for 8 years, and both houses of Congress for 10 years before the Great Depression.

And the Great Depression didn't occur at that time, did it?

It is hard to make a logical argument blaming the Democrats for starting the Great Depression.

It's easy. FDR took a downturn and turned it into the Great Depression, lasting some 15 years.

 

[Into the Night]

Fearmongering is always about manipulation even if partially true. Only a fucking psycho believes COVID isn't a disease.

Mantra 41 Idiocracy

Covid is a virus causing a disease. It does not kill. DEMOCRAT fear mongering is the hoax. Pay attention, Sock.

 

[Dutch Uncle]

Covid is a virus causing a disease. It does not kill. DEMOCRAT fear mongering is the hoax. Pay attention, Sock.

Mantra 41 Idiocracy

Mantra 1a.

Mantra 4a.

One of the "miscellaneous" documents on that site is Into the Night's mantra list.

 

[Walt]

I started watching way back in 2011 in Saigon when there were street protests against the Chinese over the Spratly Islands. Shortly after the Vietnamese gave the 7th Fleet berthing facilities in Da Nang.

As more people join NATO, Hawkeye claims they are fleeing NATO. As our allies join with us, Hawkeye is claiming they are joining with China. One has to wonder what world he lives in.

More importantly, I wonder what the whole point of the Vietnam War was. We are becoming allies with our enemy, which usually only happens when we replace their government(Germany and Japan). They replaced our government(South Vietnam).

If we had allowed them to take over after WWII, they probably would have been better. And we would not have killed so many, and had so many losses of our own.

 

[Walt]

FDR took a downturn and turned it into the Great Depression, lasting some 15 years.

We went from your original claim that FDR "started" the Great Depression to FDR extended it. OK, let's look at that.

The Great Depression had already been going for 3.5 years before FDR came to office. That means that not only couldn't he have started it, but clearly the Republicans did not have a solution to end it.

As for "15 years", the Great Depression lasted for 10 years, with over a third of it happening before FDR came to office.

 

[Walt]

I hear QE is ramping up again but I have yet to verify this.

Another bizarre post that did not come true, and could never have been true.

QE was meant to fight deflation. Deflation ceased to be a problem years ago. It is very doubtful it will be a problem for years to come. For the last several years we have been doing QT, the opposite of QE.

 

[Walt]

Goldman-Sachs cuts chance of recession in next 12 months to 15 percent.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/...ces-us-recession-next-one-year-15-2023-09-05/

That sounds about right. And almost certainly a minor recession if it were to happen.

 

[Into the Night]

We went from your original claim that FDR "started" the Great Depression to FDR extended it. OK, let's look at that.

The Great Depression had already been going for 3.5 years before FDR came to office. That means that not only couldn't he have started it, but clearly the Republicans did not have a solution to end it.

As for "15 years", the Great Depression lasted for 10 years, with over a third of it happening before FDR came to office.

FDR started the Great Depression.
It had NOT been going on 3.5 years before FDR came into office. The Great Depression lasted for over 15 years.

 

[Into the Night]

Another bizarre post that did not come true, and could never have been true.

QE was meant to fight deflation. Deflation ceased to be a problem years ago. It is very doubtful it will be a problem for years to come. For the last several years we have been doing QT, the opposite of QE.

Blatant lie.