Forecast for US Recession Within Year Hits 100%

Doc Dutch said:
Another instance of them being both idiots and anti-American.
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Accusations of anti-Americanism, unfortunately, have to include a presumption of what Americanism entails.

We have nothing approaching consensus on that.

Thus, much like the HUAC of our shameful blacklisting era,
anybody making an accusation of un-Americanism
is essentially making an accusation of non-compliance with the accuser's definition of Americanism and nothing more.

People do have the prerogative to do that, possibly protected by our 1st Amendment's wording.

I happen to believe that two Americas exist, one Blue and one Red,
and that they're forced, with typically horrific results, to share the same national government.

Neither's definition of Americanism would overlap the other's very much.
 
Life is Golden said:
(Bloomberg) -- A US recession is effectively certain in the next 12 months in new Bloomberg Economics model projections, a blow to President Joe Biden’s economic messaging ahead of the November midterms.

The latest recession probability models by Bloomberg economists Anna Wong and Eliza Winger forecast a higher recession probability across all timeframes, with the 12-month estimate of a downturn by October 2023 hitting 100%, up from 65% for the comparable period in the previous update.

The forecast will be unwelcome news for Biden, who has repeatedly said the US will avoid a recession and that any downturn would be “very slight,” as he seeks to reassure Americans the economy is on solid footing under his administration.

But tightening financial conditions, persistent inflation and expectations of a hawkish Federal Reserve pressing ahead with rate hikes are raising the risk of a contraction.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/mar...in-year-hits-100-in-blow-to-biden/ar-AA133nzh
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Brandon is doing all he can to make it happen.
 
NiftyNiblick said:
Accusations of anti-Americanism, unfortunately, have to include a presumption of what Americanism entails.

We have nothing approaching consensus on that.

Thus, much like the HUAC of our shameful blacklisting era,
anybody making an accusation of un-Americanism
is essentially making an accusation of non-compliance with the accuser's definition of Americanism and nothing more.

People do have the prerogative to do that, possibly protected by our 1st Amendment's wording.

I happen to believe that two Americas exist, one Blue and one Red,
and that they're forced, with typically horrific results, to share the same national government.

Neither's definition of Americanism would overlap the other's very much.
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People lie, but the record of what Americanism means is included in our founding documents; both the Declaration of Independence and the Constitution.

Example:

We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness.--That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed

You and I can agree the US is far from perfect and, for the past 20 years, we seem to be taking our "one step back". However, I think, as a nation, we'll learn from this and take two steps forward.
 
Doc Dutch said:
People lie, but the record of what Americanism means is included in our founding documents; both the Declaration of Independence and the Constitution.

Example:

We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness.--That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed

You and I can agree the US is far from perfect and, for the past 20 years, we seem to be taking our "one step back". However, I think, as a nation, we'll learn from this and take two steps forward.
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An admittedly uplifting preamble made with all the best intent in the world

can be made nonsense

by the actual body of articles underneath.

The founders created a brand new format for a constitutional democratic republic.

The constitutional democratic republic part is something on which we all seem to agree, or at least don't argue about much.

The execution of such attempt is where we quite obviously disagree.

It's my position that the actual form of government created by our constitution

is so grossly inefficient,

and so ridiculous compromised in an attempt to satisfy completely incompatible participants in its creation

that any good intent suggested by the preamble

is reduced to incomprehensibility by the body of the constitution itself.



We do bring different personalities to the conversation, of course.

I don't get bored with words and would like to see as many very precise ones as required
to explain exactly what the fuck we're trying to do with no room for interpretation.
Subjectivity is for art.

You believe in things like human nature and free will and the desire of most humanity to do the right thing, or at least to do something.

The assembly line on which my mind was created didn't include those circuits on the blueprint.
 
NiftyNiblick said:
An admittedly uplifting preamble made with all the best intent in the world

can be made nonsense

by the actual body of articles underneath.

The founders created a brand new format for a constitutional democratic republic.

The constitutional democratic republic part is something on which we all seem to agree, or at least don't argue about much.

The execution of such attempt is where we quite obviously disagree.

It's my position that the actual form of government created by our constitution

is so grossly inefficient,

and so ridiculous compromised in an attempt to satisfy completely incompatible participants in its creation

that any good intent suggested by the preamble

is reduced to incomprehensibility by the body of the constitution itself.



We do bring different personalities to the conversation, of course.

I don't get bored with words and would like to see as many very precise ones as required
to explain exactly what the fuck we're trying to do with no room for interpretation.
Subjectivity is for art.

You believe in things like human nature and free will and the desire of most humanity to do the right thing, or at least to do something.

The assembly line on which my mind was created didn't include those circuits on the blueprint.
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Correct. They gave us a blue print. It's up to us to build and/or better the nation.
 
anonymoose said:
Of course they are. Most of those guys are with all those firms. They just regurgitate what some program generates.
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I think it's an easy gig if you can appear professional and learn the lingo. Way too conservative. I need a bare minimum of 7% from my baseline income accounts. I don't think I'd trust them to get me that.
 
Concart said:
I think it's an easy gig if you can appear professional and learn the lingo.
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My niece's husband is one. H.S. educated and that's it. Odd thing is, my niece is a research scientist w/ a PhD/DVM and clinical instructor at a vet school
 
anonymoose said:
It actually wasn’t without merit.
My Schwab account manager says all the indicators are still there. He thinks there’s a 90% probably there will be one within a year.
Not saying I’m hoping there will be one. I don’t.
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Fascinating. Our Schwab guy says nothing of the sort. We've been with Schwab for decades. They don't make predictions like that. Maybe yours has an investment vehicle he'd like his ̶s̶u̶c̶k̶e̶r̶s̶ clients to move their money into, one that pays him a sweet commission. :rofl2:
 
Doc Dutch said:
Agreed. Not the first time RWNJs wish the US would fail.


Agreed. Note the JPP members who are the most divisive, the most hateful and either directly or indirectly wish for the death of all those to the left of their Alt-Right ideology.
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Yep.

They are also the numbskulls who claimed that the pandemic was a hoax created by (D)s to make #TRE45ON look bad. :rolleyes:
 
Cypress said:
:lolup:

MAGA has been practically guaranteeing an economic depression of unprecedented proportions for three years now
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H10 enjoys sharing his drug- and alcohol-induced nightmares with us from midnight through the wee hours. Sadly, no one listens so he has to natter to himself and to his equally-delusional "MISTRESS."
 
Concart said:
You haven't figured out yet that Schwab Account Managers are by and large idiots? I wouldn't let them invest a penny of my money. And I have a total of five Schwab accounts. I always get the VPs calling me. They have given me zero advice that I couldn't figure out on my own. Just sayin'. They have no particular keen economic insights.
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We've been with Schwab for decades. I wouldn't say the managers are all idiots, but you are right -- handle the investments yourself. It just takes study and reading and economic knowledge. Mr. Owl loves that stuff and is quite good at it. We are doing as well now as ever.
 
ThatOwlWoman said:
We've been with Schwab for decades. I wouldn't say the managers are all idiots, but you are right -- handle the investments yourself. It just takes study and reading and economic knowledge. Mr. Owl loves that stuff and is quite good at it. We are doing as well now as ever.
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They aren't idiots, but they are also not the cream of the crop. I really like Schwab, I had a small dalliance with ETrade. NEVER, EVER AGAIN would I give them a dime. They tried to steal 100,000 from me. Basically. But I'd prefer to pick my investments. I can read a balance sheet. Doesn't require much more than that.
 
ThatOwlWoman said:
Fascinating. Our Schwab guy says nothing of the sort. We've been with Schwab for decades. They don't make predictions like that. Maybe yours has an investment vehicle he'd like his ̶s̶u̶c̶k̶e̶r̶s̶ clients to move their money into, one that pays him a sweet commission. :rofl2:
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So you're saying your Schwab guy is better than my Schwab guy or are you saying they all suck?
BTW, where is your Schwab guy?
And do you have a 401k w/ them?
 
anonymoose said:
So you're saying your Schwab guy is better than my Schwab guy or are you saying they all suck?
BTW, where is your Schwab guy?
And do you have a 401k w/ them?
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Why do you need to know this info? You doubt that Mr. Owl has done a great job of investing? He has multiple investment vehicles, including a 401(k). Is that important to you?
 
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