The lead based on averaging recent polls is 1.5 percent, within the margin of error resulting in 538 treating the race as tied. In the most recent poll, taken yesterday, the Harris lead is five per cent, a number outside the margin. This poll, by RMG Management, is interesting for its large sample size (3,000 instead of the typical 1,500) and for the polling company's ownership by Scott Rasmussen, who owned the former Rasmussen Poll known for its Republican tilt. Rasmussen was the only national poll that on the day before the 2008 election picked Romney to defeat Obama.
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Harris and Trump are tied in 538's new polling averages
Introducing 538's new 2024 presidential polling averages for Kamala Harris versus Donald Trump.