I cant belive the dems are going to F it up.. AGAIN!
- Thread starter Chapdog
- Start date
WRL
Well...the right is right
yeah, just give me a few more weeks!
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The Almighty
crunch the numbers.... barring a big run by Obama, it has to come down to the supers.... or the 26 delegates Edwards won.
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The Almighty
Before I take that bet, am I risking $500k or $1?
Where did I say that it won't come down to the Supers?
All I'm saying is that they will not over-ride the decision of the elected delegates. Ergo, if Obama wins most of the elected delegates, he wins most of the Supers, as well.
The conventional wisdom is that Hillary somehow has the Supers in her back pocket, just waiting to pull them out at the convention. The Supers are mainly elected officials, and they full well understand what it would mean for them to over-ride the decision of the voters. They won't do it.
I cant belive the dems are going to F it up.. AGAIN!
Calm down. Other than punditry chatter on cable news channels, and some anecdotal evidence I've read on message boards, no one to my knowledge has been able to demonstrate to me in any substantive, empirical way that the Dems are tearing themselves apart and floundering.
It's just reported that Barak raised a record crushing 55 million. Mostly from small online donors. And that Hillary didn't do too shabby either, raising 36 million. Compare that to mcCain's paltry fundraising. Those are donor databases that the republicans are going to wish they had this fall. The participation in the primaries by new voters is nothing short of astonishing, and record numbers of new voters are being brought into the party. Grass roots organization and campaign infrastruture are being developed in all 50 states in a way that never would have happened in a non-competitive primary. Barak is a much sharper candidate, than what I saw 12 months ago. The congressional fundraising committees for the senate and house democrats are absolutley blowing the doors of their GOP counterparts.
There's no doubt that there's could be a downside to a nasty campaign that goes all the way to a brokered convention. Maybe things could blow up. But, I'm not seeing any evidence of that, at this moment in time.
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The Almighty
settle down skippy.... I didn't say you said anything. I simply said if you crunch the numbers it WILL come down to the supers. As for the over-riding part... I am not so sure of that. Especially if Florida and MI hold primaries/caucuses and it becomes closer for Hillary.
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The Almighty
FUCK THE POLICE
911 EVERY DAY
This is like the prisoner's dilemna. No matter which way it goes, one of them will be benifitted by doing anything it takes to get the nomination, even if it does hurt the Democrats overall.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prisoner's_dilemna
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prisoner's_dilemna
Yup, but they aint going to go against whoever has the most elected delegates.
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The Almighty
I wouldn't count on that.... not all of them are elected officials... those that aren't can swing whatever way they want. They have little to lose.... and if the end result is close, they may go either way. I think the more interesting question is will Edwards encourage his 26 to go one way or the other. Because right now I am not sure that either can reach 2025 without those 26. Even if the supers toe the line as you suggest.
I have no idea whether republicans or hillary clinton blow all their money just on TV ads.
Obama spends a lot of his resources, from what I understand, building campaign infrastructure at the state and grass roots level. And that helps down ticket candidates ultimatley, too. And that donor database doesn't just dissapear the day after the Democratic convention.
Which is why Grandpa McCain is going to lose to Obama.
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The Almighty
I agree that as things stand right now, McCain would lose to Obama... IF they meet. I am not so sure Obama survives Hillary at this time. I hope I am wrong as I would rather have McCain face Obama. (even though he is the tougher out)
In spite of the "tragedy" of all this negative campaigning by the Dems, both Democratic candidates fair better against McCain this month, than they did last month.
Both Obama and Clinton beat McCain in head to head polls, and have generally improved their postion againt him since last month.
pollingreport.com
Both Obama and Clinton beat McCain in head to head polls, and have generally improved their postion againt him since last month.
pollingreport.com
maybe I'm whistling past the graveyard. Some people, who's opinions I respect, seem to think that Clinton's campaign is intentionally going to drag the party down and doom Obama. What the hell do I know.
Truck Fump / h1b
Verified User
The real lesson of prisoner's dilemma is "stick to your story". Solidarity.
cawacko
Well-known member
You didn't stay retired for to long out of the prediction business?
FUCK THE POLICE
911 EVERY DAY
No matter what happens at least one player benefits by being a snitch.
FUCK THE POLICE
911 EVERY DAY
Yeah, I shake my head all the time, but not about this. I shake my head about things like: How could George W. Bush ever become president (twice)?
Ask Beefy.
ZOMG WHY DON'T YOU JUST GO ELECT HITLER?1/1/1?!!?1!?!
Stupid question. A 20 person race where the winner won with 7% or so of the vote wouldn't be a democracy at all. Parties have a right to choose whot heir nominee will be, and they want to narrow it down to one, because one of the flaws of our voting system is vote-splitting.
An almost sickening question, comparing people to produce.
Why don't we do it more?
Because you ask so many stupid questions.