I predict that the S&P 500 will be well under 5,000 by September 30th

There are over 100% tariffs between the world's two largest trading partners, creating a near embargo. It will take a few months to carry through to main street, but this is huge. trump has postponed many other tariffs, but not cancelled them. Postponing in the past has meant trump is just trying to delay them so people get used to them. he might make a deal with China, but that looks extremely iffy, and the deal will be noticeable worse than what we had a few months ago.

Even if trump tries to reset everything to the way it was a few months ago, there will be the uncertainty. That alone will crash the stock market.

I could be wrong, but I believe that the stock market will crash by more than 40% from its high. The high for the S&P 500 is 6,147.43, so I think it will go down to 3688. DO NOT BET YOUR HOUSE ON THIS!!! I have been sure before, and been wrong. I am certainly willing to invest extra money I do not need to survive.

The real question is why isn't the stock market lower right now? That is the question The Economist was asking in their most recent issue. The answer they came by is that the only retail investors are supporting the market right now, and only some of the retail investors. They believe Republicans are letting their belief in trump cloud their investing judgement. I think that is right, but also there is a lot of wishful thinking that we are not destined for very bad things.

One more time, there is a near embargo between the world's two largest trading partners, that is a very bad thing.
you know the stock market is fake.

it will keep being fake.
 
I suspect it won't take that long.
Weeks? I suppose the cities will be hit first.

His dolls comment landed hard even on Republicans.

Trump’s Poor Poll Numbers Don’t Yet Reflect the Full Picture​

The only thing falling quicker than Washington’s patience with the White House is the U.S. economy, which has been rocked by fears of a trade war fueled by escalating and irrational tariffs.

On Wednesday, as markets were falling once again and the Commerce Department reported that the U.S. economy actually shrank in the first quarter, Trump tried to lay it all on the feet of his predecessor. “This is Biden’s Stock Market, not Trump’s,” he messaged on his social media platform. (Never mind that in January of last year—while still a candidate—Trump claimed that Biden deserved no credit for a surging market, arguing that investors were making money on the promise of Trump’s return to power.) And when meeting with his Cabinet later in the day to mark his first 100 days in office, he doubled down.

“That’s Biden. That’s not Trump. … We came in and I was very against everything that Biden was doing,” Trump boasted at the start of a meeting. He then acknowledged that prices might soon rise on a host of goods. "Maybe the children will have two dolls instead of 30 dolls, and maybe the two dolls will cost a couple of bucks more," he said.

All of which points to three bleak realities: Trump understands that this economy is not buzzing the
way he dreamed, we may have not yet seen the worst of it, and voters are increasingly looking for someone to blame.

In recent polls, Trump’s approval hovers around 44% of Americans. That’s down slightly from around where he polled for much of his first term, when a core group of MAGA die-hards never wavered. But this time around, Trump's base may be made of less sturdy stuff, especially if the economy continues to contract and most fingers are pointed at the occupant of the Oval Office.

Trump rode back to Washington with kitchen-table promises of cheaper groceries, shrinking inflation, and massive job creation. Delivering on those promises, though, has proven trickier than lining up more electoral votes than Kamala Harris. His unsteady performance has left markets lurching from one crisis to another, and his contempt for tradition continues to rattle both Washington institutionalists and Wall Street investors. The cost has so far been around 16 points in Trump’s polling to put him underwater by double digits—but the total bill is still being tallied.
 
I'm curious -- what are you basing this on? The tariffs and current trajectory of the economy?
I just want to add: What you are going to see in the next while is a lot of trump doing insane things, and everyone trying to make it seem sane. We naturally want the world around us to be sane, so we pretend it is not an insane disaster for as long as we can.

trump has created an insane disaster through high tariffs. It will take months to unwind, so we can pretend it is not a disaster yet... But it is a disaster.
 
This is bad, but no one really knows how bad. It is uncharted territory. We have never had a president try so hard to destroy the economy. If we had sane debating partners, the debate would be how bad trump will be.
it's fine, dumbass.

your echo chambers of lies just all got kicked off media for being psychotic liars.
 
its too big too fail.
"Too big too fail" makes no sense, do you mean too big to fail? Not quite sure how a market would fail. Clearing houses can fail, if there is a failure to pay debts. The stock market clearing houses do not really hold debt. Individual stocks fail all the time, but that does not make the market fail. Do you mean fail as crash, because that can also happen.

that means its fake.
Texas is too big to fail, in that it would be very harmful to the USA for it to fail, and we are willing to do almost anything to prevent its failure. Are you saying that Texas is fake?

I am not going to argue that. I always found Texas accents to sound a bit fake to me. I have been there, but maybe I was just fooled.

why would you expect reality in the stock market?
Social constructs can hide reality for a little while, but it sticks its ugly head in sooner or later. In fact, I am counting on that happening.

So I made my last goal for my Roth, and now setting a new goal. This is a process that takes months. There is a real possibility I might blow past my new goal before I even made it. THIS IS CRAZY!!!
 
"Too big too fail" makes no sense, do you mean too big to fail? Not quite sure how a market would fail. Clearing houses can fail, if there is a failure to pay debts. The stock market clearing houses do not really hold debt. Individual stocks fail all the time, but that does not make the market fail. Do you mean fail as crash, because that can also happen.


Texas is too big to fail, in that it would be very harmful to the USA for it to fail, and we are willing to do almost anything to prevent its failure. Are you saying that Texas is fake?

I am not going to argue that. I always found Texas accents to sound a bit fake to me. I have been there, but maybe I was just fooled.


Social constructs can hide reality for a little while, but it sticks its ugly head in sooner or later. In fact, I am counting on that happening.

So I made my last goal for my Roth, and now setting a new goal. This is a process that takes months. There is a real possibility I might blow past my new goal before I even made it. THIS IS CRAZY!!!
why do they pause trading on stocks?

why did GamesStop stock trading get paused?
 
your echo chambers of lies just all got kicked off media for being psychotic liars.
That has not happened yet, but maybe some time soon trump will be able to kick everyone who disagrees with him off media. Do you think that would be a good thing?

We kept hearing no matter how bad the lies told by the far right, we had to tolerate them, because of freedom of expression(speech, the press, and whatever). I agreed. Now we are being told that because trump is president, he is allowed to ban opinions he does not like, no matter how true they are...

Hmmm...
 
That has not happened yet, but maybe some time soon trump will be able to kick everyone who disagrees with him off media. Do you think that would be a good thing?

We kept hearing no matter how bad the lies told by the far right, we had to tolerate them, because of freedom of expression(speech, the press, and whatever). I agreed. Now we are being told that because trump is president, he is allowed to ban opinions he does not like, no matter how true they are...

Hmmm...
all your news shows are getting cancelled due to their hosts being bugfuck insane.

own it, bitch.
 
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