I predict that the S&P 500 will be well under 5,000 by September 30th

Walt said:
I took money I made earlier in the year, and invested some of it into trump acting quickly. As it turns out there were two market memes I did not account for, TACO, and "nothing ever happens." Some investors have decided that trump always chickens out, and that while things happens, they are always unimportant to the market.

This has led not just to buying on the dip, but buying before the dip. It has created the unusual, but not unheard of, situation where bad news actually makes the markets go up. These investors are maxing out their credit cards to invest everything they have. But being early is just another way to say I was wrong.

If you ever get a 50/50 chance at a ten to one payoff, take it. I did that. Because I was careful to take it the chance with money I had already made, I am going to be up for the year.


I am still investing money into SPY puts. I am currently buying them at a 5 to 6 week expiration date, and usually selling them before they expire. So far I made some nice profits... Not nearly as much as I lost investing so much with such a specific expiration date... But a nice amount of money.

I have no reason to not continue to do that until January 2027. I was expecting to lose money on it most of the time, but to have such a big windfall from it once or twice to make up for the weeks without profit. Instead, I have gotten week after week of profit.

I do not ignore my failures. I do learn things. But I do not quit good ideas because they do not always succeed on time.
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None of this changes that your prediction was terrible. Though I think this claim is a bit silly. You would have to be perfect in order to make the profits you claim and know when the 5-6 day drops were to be cashed in, without the perfection your claim fails and I do not believe you are right often enough to have even gotten close to that kind of return betting on the drops in a rising market.

You do not have the kind of predictive record to even come close to convincing me that you are perfect in timing your puts.
 
Damocles said:
None of this changes that your prediction was terrible.
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Not every good investment pays off. If one out of five pays off 10 times, that is actually a good investment. Even if four out of five did not pay off.

So I do not accept your statement that my prediction was terrible. My predictions have made quite a bit of money. You want to say I was too certain, I will accept that. But it was a good investment.

Damocles said:
You would have to be perfect in order to make the profits you claim
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Not really. I am buying 5 to 6 week options at or below $5. Then I sell half of them when it goes above $6, but starts to drop(limit stop loss). I buy more at 5 to 6 weeks when the price becomes reasonable.

Sooner or later, the options will not go above $6. In fact, options normally degrade over time, so the price will usually go to zero. I accept that. In fact, I planned for that. These little paydays are not my plan.

My plan was to buy options every week or so for the next 15 months, losing money on most of them. But, a few would have massive payoffs. So rather than being perfect, I expect a lot of losses before the big win.

Damocles said:
you claim and know when the 5-6 day drops were to be cashed in
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Where did you get 5 to 6 days? I am buying 5 to 6 WEEK expiration dates. That is long enough I have time that the market can massively change, and short enough that I will be buying right before the market goes down. And also 7 weeks out weekly options come on the market, so I can buy new, but still liquid options at 6 weeks. 7 week options are often very illiquid.

Damocles said:
without the perfection your claim fails and I do not believe you are right often enough to have even gotten close to that kind of return betting on the drops in a rising market.
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Let's say I buy one put contract a week for 50 weeks, and they last 5 weeks, so at any given time I own 5 of them. I buy each contract at $4.50, and a contract controls 100 shares, so that would be a cost of $450. If 45 of them expire worthless, that would sound like a terrible investment, but if the 5 that are worth something can be sold at $130(a reasonable return on a bear market)....

Then I spent $22.5k get back $65k, or a return 188%. And that is assuming I lose everything for the entire year aside from one crash. That means there does not need to be perfection, but rather just one crash in the next year.

But I doubt that is the way it will go. I think there will be radical ups and downs. That is what we have seen so far. As long as the "nothing ever happens" crowd continues to believe there will not be radical ups and downs, I can make a lot of money waiting for the bigger crash.

Damocles said:
I do not believe you are right often enough to have even gotten close to that kind of return betting on the drops in a rising market.
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The last three weeks, the market has not been constantly rising. It tests a new high, and then has a one to three percent drop. So I was able to buy SPY 11/14/2025 $645 Puts on 10/08 at an average of $4.68. Today they had a high of $9.40, and a low of $6.48. It closed at $6.48, so going down.

I am not going to sell them, because I am severely underinvested. I already sold off the 11/7's at a profit, so I am keeping the 11/14's until I buy more. And 11/21's were too pricey this week, with the market being down all week. So I will keep the 11/7's possibly until they expire at a loss. But I will keep the 11/7's until they possibly expire in the money on November 7th.

Damocles said:
You do not have the kind of predictive record to even come close to convincing me that you are perfect in timing your puts.
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For my investment to work, we just need a crash before January of 2027. I will keep reevaluating the situation, and may stop investing before then. Or may even keep doing this after January of 2027.
 
Walt said:
Not every good investment pays off. If one out of five pays off 10 times, that is actually a good investment. Even if four out of five did not pay off.

So I do not accept your statement that my prediction was terrible. My predictions have made quite a bit of money. You want to say I was too certain, I will accept that. But it was a good investment.


Not really. I am buying 5 to 6 week options at or below $5. Then I sell half of them when it goes above $6, but starts to drop(limit stop loss). I buy more at 5 to 6 weeks when the price becomes reasonable.

Sooner or later, the options will not go above $6. In fact, options normally degrade over time, so the price will usually go to zero. I accept that. In fact, I planned for that. These little paydays are not my plan.

My plan was to buy options every week or so for the next 15 months, losing money on most of them. But, a few would have massive payoffs. So rather than being perfect, I expect a lot of losses before the big win.


Where did you get 5 to 6 days? I am buying 5 to 6 WEEK expiration dates. That is long enough I have time that the market can massively change, and short enough that I will be buying right before the market goes down. And also 7 weeks out weekly options come on the market, so I can buy new, but still liquid options at 6 weeks. 7 week options are often very illiquid.


Let's say I buy one put contract a week for 50 weeks, and they last 5 weeks, so at any given time I own 5 of them. I buy each contract at $4.50, and a contract controls 100 shares, so that would be a cost of $450. If 45 of them expire worthless, that would sound like a terrible investment, but if the 5 that are worth something can be sold at $130(a reasonable return on a bear market)....

Then I spent $22.5k get back $65k, or a return 188%. And that is assuming I lose everything for the entire year aside from one crash. That means there does not need to be perfection, but rather just one crash in the next year.

But I doubt that is the way it will go. I think there will be radical ups and downs. That is what we have seen so far. As long as the "nothing ever happens" crowd continues to believe there will not be radical ups and downs, I can make a lot of money waiting for the bigger crash.


The last three weeks, the market has not been constantly rising. It tests a new high, and then has a one to three percent drop. So I was able to buy SPY 11/14/2025 $645 Puts on 10/08 at an average of $4.68. Today they had a high of $9.40, and a low of $6.48. It closed at $6.48, so going down.

I am not going to sell them, because I am severely underinvested. I already sold off the 11/7's at a profit, so I am keeping the 11/14's until I buy more. And 11/21's were too pricey this week, with the market being down all week. So I will keep the 11/7's possibly until they expire at a loss. But I will keep the 11/7's until they possibly expire in the money on November 7th.


For my investment to work, we just need a crash before January of 2027. I will keep reevaluating the situation, and may stop investing before then. Or may even keep doing this after January of 2027.
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So your "strategy" is to keep losing small until the market collapses.

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cawacko said:
So your "strategy" is to keep losing small until the market collapses.
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Sort of. I do not need a collapse. 5% drop over 5 weeks would have me making a profit. 5% drop is not a collapse. I am looking for a crash, but not necessarily a full on collapse And there is some small gains in with the small losses.

But yes, an oversimplification is to keep having small loses until I have a big gain. It is a strategy that sometimes works, and I definitely have the money to risk for 15 months. After that, it starts seeming like I am risking money that I need.

And a reminder, we keep having 1 to 3% drops, so far I have made money waiting for the big payday, so a double win if the big payday happens.
 
Matt Dillon said:
He's really gambling.
Gambling on all long shots is what it amounts to.
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I do not think it is a long shot that there will be a major drop in the stock market before 2027... But if I am wrong, I still have most of my money in SWTSX, which will go up with the stock market.
 
Walt said:
I do not think it is a long shot that there will be a major drop in the stock market before 2027... But if I am wrong, I still have most of my money in SWTSX, which will go up with the stock market.
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The equity markets will drop at least 70%...and will not come back in our lifetime.
 
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