Silver stayed the same for AGES for no reason really. but it went up this past year by a bunch. I am thrilled.
I predict that the S&P 500 will be well under 5,000 by September 30th
- Thread starter Walt
- Start date
We use a lot of gold to plate connections but silver is still used on a lot of electronics. Both are easily manipulated in price but anything tangible is a good bet.
I still kick myself for all the rare coins I had to sell for peanuts when I was going through a rough patch in the early '80s.
Ichabod Stain
Was it me?
so does massive money giveaways to banks, and businesses of all sorts.
to be fair.
but sure. minimum wage is just too inflationary.
that's bullshit.
Ichabod Stain
Was it me?
what's going on with silver and Japan?
IBDaMann
Well-known member
This is the fastest 1,000‑point climb in the index’s history. So, I was right; I was only off by the date ... mere days.
I wonder how long it will be before it reaches to below 5,000.
IBDaMann
Well-known member
Japan just likes to pay extra for it.
Ichabod Stain
Was it me?
that's what she said.
Ichabod Stain
Was it me?
you following bonds?This is the fastest 1,000‑point climb in the index’s history. So, I was right; I was only off by the date ... mere days.
I wonder how long it will be before it reaches to below 5,000.
In the next few months, there will be attempts at IPO's that will be greater than the IPO's over the last 10 years. Private equity will be tapped for trillions more in a matter of months. This will all be in an attempt to get AGI(artificial general intelligence), and it will be huge. Supposedly it will be winner take all, so most will fail. No one has really thought out what happens next.
Then there is the trump deficit. trump has once again run up the deficit to record highs for a non-emergency. That has nothing to do with AGI.
IBDaMann
Well-known member
I see that you still haven't learned your branches of government. The President isn't Congress. I shouldn't be the first person to teach you this.
Wally, we have gone over this a half dozen times. Stop giving financial advice. You lost all your money on your last bet.
Second thought, keep pretending you are Jim Kramer and smart investors will do the opposite and prosper.
The budget is proposed by trump. The Republicans in Congress approved trump's budget. Then he went about unconstitutionally defying the budget.
There are two dangers, and one bright spot for the S&P 500.
Danger number one is that about two months of $130 oil would throw the US into a recession. Even if trump and Iran are able to open the Strait of Hormuz, the warm up time would get it to $130 for at least a month(not two months, but still)... And that is assuming smooth sailing from here on out.
Danger number two is a little more inside baseball. SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic are all looking at mega-IPOs in the next few months. They all need massive amounts of money for their AGI attempts, and private equity has run out of money to feed them. The three of them will be bigger than all the IPOs in the last decade. If you exclude Alibaba and Saudi Aramco's IPOs, the three combined will be bigger than all the IPOs in the last 25 years. Both Alibaba and Aramco had large foreign investment funds desperate to invest in them. These three will be mostly American. That is a large amount of money that will have to come from somewhere, which is probably the S&P 500. That is especially true when you look at the increases in borrowing from the US Government.
There is a bright spot for the S&P 500, but sadly not for the economy. All this stimulus will help the economy a bit, but it will mostly just increase the risk of inflation. Inflation may sound bad, but because the S&P 500 is the best hedge against inflation, it might turn out very good for the S&P 500.
I really do not have the foggiest when all these will hit, or how they will hit.
Over time I am making more than I am losing by using options to short the S&P 500. But not as much money as I would like. Along with the investments in a broad stock indexed fund, it is an OK strategy, which is to say not great.
My new investment is in call options on BNO and GUSH. Those are oil based ETF's, which I am using options to say will go up. If oil does go to $130, I should make a ton of money(to use an technical term for it
). They are all dated 100 to 150 days from now, so I will hopefully catch that.But that is just a guess at this point.
If you ever get a 50/50 chance to make 20 times your money, take it. But do not over invest in it.
Everyone is more scared now, so the payouts are not as good, but there still are some real risks there. A 50/50 chance of a 10 times payout is still nice.
What is your investment strategy for the near to medium future?
I have not come anywhere close to losing all my money. I lost more money in a day than I made in my 20's, twice, but also kept most of my money. I had more money in my Roth at the end of the year than at the beginning.
But if you do think I am losing all my money, feel free to invest in the opposite direction of me. Good luck.
What blows my mind is gold seems to no longer be a hedge against the market. It is moving with the markets.
I think it is a generation of investors who think gold is like Bitcoins, a "magical investment" that spits out cash. They do not think of it as a hedge against social collapse like us old timers.
IBDaMann
Well-known member
You forfeit.
... and you think the President is therefore Congress. Good. Good.
You forfeit.
No specific examples? ... like it never actually happened?
USAID stands out, but there have been many, many other examples.