APP - ILA's Official 2020 Presidential Prediction

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Teflon Don

Teflon Don

I'm back baby
Here resides my official 2020 Presidential Prediction. Now of course, this prediction is made with all available information known today and can change as events change.

But, as I sit here today, President Trump will be re-elected President of the United States

His Electoral College victory will be 356-182

He will win 37 states compared to the 30 he won in 2016.

He will win all but the following states (easier to list the states he won't win): CA, WA, OR, IL, NY, NJ, VT, DE, MD, RI, CT, MA, HI

Yes, I have looked at all of the "national" polls and I have determined that they are all garbage.

1) They all over sample democrats by 8-10 points
2) Still doing registered voter models

I am instead looking at fundamentals on the ground

1) Massive displays of Trump support all over the country including Trump rally's in Beverly freaking Hills CA
2) Democrats all over the country have gone insane from lockdowns to allowing BLMTIFA to run amok
3) Trump boat rallies spontaneously occurring
4) Trump is still packing them in at any rally he does
5) Biden can't draw a few hundred people at any campaign event. He can't even draw them online
6) America sees that Biden is in severe cognitive decline
7) America will vote against the democrat media industrial complex
8) Even in polls that are poorly done, Trump consistently gets >20% of approval from black voters. I believe that is going to translate into at least 15% of the black vote
9) Biden is underperforming with hispanics (particularly in Florida) and Trump is over performing with hispanics. Trump is going to do better with hispanics than he did in 2016
10) Biden is playing defense right now. Making trips to PA, Las Vegas and Miami this late in the campaign is not offensive campaigning. It is playing defense. Campaigns up by double digits are not playing defense
11) 56% of Americans think they are better off today than they did four years ago
12) When asked who they thought would win the race, 56% said Trump


As I said, all of this can change in the blink of an eye and if I think it warrants a change, I will make that change accordingly. One area of weakness that has been pretty consistent since the Wu Flu has been the elderly vote.

I also believe there is a high likely hood of Republicans keeping the Senate and even taking back the House of Representatives, but not as confident on the latter yet. I haven't really looked at individual races. There are two races I am watching this year

1) James Senate race in Michigan. I think he can flip it. I have sent him money
2) Kim Klacik house race in Maryland. Keep an eye on her. Not sure if she can flip that race, but she is an up and coming star in the Republican Party. If she does win that race this year then look out. Republicans are going to run the table.
 
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Miami police: over 30,000 cars in Trump parade

IMG_5213-600x381.jpg



https://twitter.com/x/status/1315034190904254464
 
Joe Biden should easily win the presidency but Trump being a sore loser and extremely immature, insecure man will contest for a while. The man is a mental child. I think that is part of his appeal as he appeals to base instincts, tribal and cult sentiments. Conflict and controversy over more complicated mature emotions. The worst thing is if his latest religious tool gets into the SCOTUS, the working class and poor will suffer as they always do under republican rule. For our family it doesn't matter either way, but for many Americans and our planet and country if Trump wins it will matter and not in a positive way. That is too obvious.

'Lest We Forget The Horrors: A Catalog Of Trump’S Worst Cruelties, Collusions, Corruptions, And Crimes'

https://www.mcsweeneys.net/articles/the-complete-listing-so-far-atrocities-1-923

"What is patriotism? Let us begin with what patriotism is not. It is not patriotic to dodge the draft and to mock war heroes and their families. It is not patriotic to discriminate against active-duty members of the armed forces in one's companies, or to campaign to keep disabled veterans away from one's property. It is not patriotic to compare one's search for sexual partners in New York with the military service in Vietnam that one has dodged. It is not patriotic to avoid paying taxes, especially when American working families do pay. It is not patriotic to ask those working, taxpaying American families to finance one's own presidential campaign, and then to spend their contributions in one's own companies. It is not patriotic to admire foreign dictators. It is not patriotic to cultivate a relationship with Muammar Gaddafi; or to say that Bashar al-Assad and Vladimir Putin are superior leaders. It is not patriotic to call upon Russia to intervene in an American presidential election. It is not patriotic to cite Russian propaganda at rallies." Timothy Snyder 'On Tyranny'
 
Teflon Don said:
Here resides my official 2020 Presidential Prediction. Now of course, this prediction is made with all available information known today and can change as events change.

But, as I sit here today, President Trump will be re-elected President of the United States

His Electoral College victory will be 356-182

He will win 37 states compared to the 30 he won in 2016.

He will win all but the following states (easier to list the states he won't win): CA, WA, OR, IL, NY, NJ, VT, DE, MD, RI, CT, MA, HI

Yes, I have looked at all of the "national" polls and I have determined that they are all garbage.

1) They all over sample democrats by 8-10 points
2) Still doing registered voter models

I am instead looking at fundamentals on the ground

1) Massive displays of Trump support all over the country including Trump rally's in Beverly freaking Hills CA
2) Democrats all over the country have gone insane from lockdowns to allowing BLMTIFA to run amok
3) Trump boat rallies spontaneously occurring
4) Trump is still packing them in at any rally he does
5) Biden can't draw a few hundred people at any campaign event. He can't even draw them online
6) America sees that Biden is in severe cognitive decline
7) America will vote against the democrat media industrial complex
8) Even in polls that are poorly done, Trump consistently gets >20% of approval from black voters. I believe that is going to translate into at least 15% of the black vote
9) Biden is underperforming with hispanics (particularly in Florida) and Trump is over performing with hispanics. Trump is going to do better with hispanics than he did in 2016
10) Biden is playing defense right now. Making trips to PA, Las Vegas and Miami this late in the campaign is not offensive campaigning. It is playing defense. Campaigns up by double digits are not playing defense
11) 56% of Americans think they are better off today than they did four years ago
12) When asked who they thought would win the race, 56% said Trump


As I said, all of this can change in the blink of an eye and if I think it warrants a change, I will make that change accordingly. One area of weakness that has been pretty consistent since the Wu Flu has been the elderly vote.

I also believe there is a high likely hood of Republicans keeping the Senate and even taking back the House of Representatives, but not as confident on the latter yet. I haven't really looked at individual races. There are two races I am watching this year

1) James Senate race in Michigan. I think he can flip it. I have sent him money
2) Kim Klacik house race in Maryland. Keep an eye on her. Not sure if she can flip that race, but she is an up and coming star in the Republican Party. If she does win that race this year then look out. Republicans are going to run the table.
Click to expand...

This and most other posts on this thread are based on anecdotal evidence. Is that on topic enough. If you don't understand what anecdotal is, you will have to look it up because if I define it here they will censor you post. They don't what you to understand it.
 
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