Inflation here we come

I can look at fundamentals.. figure out good investments, track patterns.. and so on.. but the market doesn't always react the way its supposed to based on fundamentals.

It seems top has a pretty good feel for the market even when fundamentals may say otherwise. Also he has these old wise tricks like 6% a year on homes. I use this even now to gauge what value will be bottom of this housing crash.. 2000 plus 6% a year.

Majority of the professionals out there don't get it right. there predictions are about as accurate as a weather forecaster.
 
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Chapdog said:
I can look at fundamentals.. figure out good investments, track patterns.. and so on.. but the market doesn't react the way its supposed to based on fundamentals.

It seems top has a pretty good feel for the market even when fundamentals may say otherwise. Also he has these old wise tricks like 6% a year on homes. I use this even know to gauge what value will be bottom of this housing crash.. 2000 plus 6% a year.

Majority of the professionals out there don't get it right. there predictions are about as accurate as a weather forecaster.
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He does have a good feel for certain sectors of the market. But his understanding of economics in general is poor at best.

You are correct that the market does not always respond to the fundamentals. That is why techinical charting is also used as that will help guage momentum and investor psychology.
 
superfreak is a fustrated salesman
I am talking economics based on what usually is the consensus among econmist. My MBA is no competion for hundreds of PHD's.
Supertool thinks cause it can happen is good enough argument for it will happen. You notice he won't give a time frame of when he's predicting a recession.
Fact 3rd qtr 4.9% that is way better than average.
We do have a slow down prob 2% in the 4th
FED cutting rates takes about 6months, second qtr 2008 is going to be real good. That's good for the investor class, shitty for the rent payers and utility bill watchers.
Now his response!!! wait for it wait for it "median is not mean".
 
Topspin said:
superfreak is a fustrated salesman
I am talking economics based on what usually is the consensus among econmist. My MBA is no competion for hundreds of PHD's.
Supertool thinks cause it can happen is good enough argument for it will happen. You notice he won't give a time frame of when he's predicting a recession.
Fact 3rd qtr 4.9% that is way better than average.
We do have a slow down prob 2% in the 4th
FED cutting rates takes about 6months, second qtr 2008 is going to be real good. That's good for the investor class, shitty for the rent payers and utility bill watchers.
Now his response!!! wait for it wait for it "median is not mean".
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Actually tool, normally it takes 12-18 months for a fed change to work its way into the economy.

Fact... 2nd qtr 2000 GDP was way better than average. Over 6%. Yet what followed? The fact that GDP was high for the third quarter in no way predicts what WILL happen. What part of the fact that it is looking backward do you not understand?

Fact.... I have said time and again that I am not saying a recession WILL happen. Even if I was, to predict exactly when it will start is idiotic. No economist is going to say "a recession will begin on March 12th". The fact that you seem to feel it is important to specify an exact date is further evidence of your lack of knowledge on economics.

Again, given the decline in the dollar, rising energy prices, rising grain prices, rising healthcare costs and the further deterioration of the housing market next year, I believe that we will fall into a recession in 2008. UNLESS steps are taken to try to alleviate the housing market problems. To date that has not happened. As I have stated before, I do not believe the steps will be taken..... hence my opinion that a recession is highly likely.

There are a lot of fundamental problems in the economy right now.
 
Listen salesman
the economy is like a large ship and doesn't stop on a dime, normally you'll have a weak quarter or two preceeding it.
Can one happen in 2008, of course it can. Is it like 70% probable. No way maybe 30 to 40%. Your going to see good retail sales numbers for November and December. It's not nearly as bad as you say and that's why you don't know jack about the economy.
Auto's and Housing down, retail and tech way up. Net up by over 3% for the year.
 
Topspin said:
Listen salesman
the economy is like a large ship and doesn't stop on a dime, normally you'll have a weak quarter or two preceeding it.
Can one happen in 2008, of course it can. Is it like 70% probable. No way maybe 30 to 40%. Your going to see good retail sales numbers for November and December. It's not nearly as bad as you say and that's why you don't know jack about the economy.
Auto's and Housing down, retail and tech way up. Net up by over 3% for the year.
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1) no shit? The economy doesn't turn on a dime? Really? That couldn't be why I said a fed change takes 12-18 months on average to work its way through the economy. No. No way was that why I stated that. Thanks for the update captain obvious.

2) To argue opinion on whether it is 70% likely or 40% likely is a bit childish. I have stated my reasons for why I believe it is higher than you do. Declining dollar, higher energy/grain/healthcare costs, further deterioration in the housing market etc...

3) AGAIN.... looking at this years growth HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH WHAT WILL HAPPEN NEXT YEAR. LOOKING AT GDP numbers is BACKWARDS looking. Not forward. That is why we look at the fundamental conditions of the economy and make PREDICTIONS as to what we think WILL happen.

4) Where did I say retail sales would be bad this quarter? Yet another strawman attempt from the spinner.
 
salesman, the reports I've heard on retail sales have been good.
go ahead with the back tracking I'll stick with little chance of recession.
 
Superfreak said:
1) no shit? The economy doesn't turn on a dime? Really? That couldn't be why I said a fed change takes 12-18 months on average to work its way through the economy. No. No way was that why I stated that. Thanks for the update captain obvious.

2) To argue opinion on whether it is 70% likely or 40% likely is a bit childish. I have stated my reasons for why I believe it is higher than you do. Declining dollar, higher energy/grain/healthcare costs, further deterioration in the housing market etc...

3) AGAIN.... looking at this years growth HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH WHAT WILL HAPPEN NEXT YEAR. LOOKING AT GDP numbers is BACKWARDS looking. Not forward. That is why we look at the fundamental conditions of the economy and make PREDICTIONS as to what we think WILL happen.

4) Where did I say retail sales would be bad this quarter? Yet another strawman attempt from the spinner.
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My point of view of no recession. is that the forecast for gdp is not negative. So even with those closest to it saying no negative gdp.. they can be wrong and i give it 30% chance.. Now if in Q1 (even tho forecast says like 2%) we come in negative.. I would up the chances to like 70% or higher that the next quarter would also be negative and thus a recession.

But you are right we wont necessarily see it until its already happening.
 
Butt Spinner thinks we can predict which quarter a recession will start ? When the economy is like a ship that does not stop on a dime ?

Thanks for backing up my stance on the spinner. :clink:
 
I think tops going based on historic numbers showing that its not likely that we will drop to recession from where we currently are.. aka Q3's GDP and Q4's GDP. Think when we get into Q1 Q2... it becomes more likely but not positive. i haven't studied the charts.
 
i am happy tho that everyone on here now recognizes that it takes 2Q's of negative GDP to constitute a recession. Notice all the media throwing that word around that obviously haven't even picked up an econ 101 book.
 
your backtracking on your 70% chance of recession.
I'm going on a good qtr followed by good current sales nubmers.
 
Chapdog said:
I think tops going based on historic numbers showing that its not likely that we will drop to recession from where we currently are.. aka Q3's GDP and Q4's GDP. Think when we get into Q1 Q2... it becomes more likely but not positive. i haven't studied the charts.
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Except Chap... that he is NOT going off of historic numbers. Because in Q2 of 2000 GDP was over 6%. Prior to the recession in 74/75.... high growth in 1973 GDP.

Add to that the fact that it doesn't matter what the GDP number is for Q3 when discussing what will happen in the future. It is not a foward indicator. If anything, the difference between Q3 and expected Q4 should be cause of more concern, not less.

Note he also does not address the fundamental problems I indicated? The fed dropping rates will continue to add pressure to the dollar. It will continue to boost the price of oil and grain. Nothing has been done (at this point) to stem the mortgage problem. Nothing has been done to loosen credit (note: is it becoming easier or harder to qualify for loans right now?).

Add to the fundamentals the fact that we had a technical breakdown in the markets and the picture is not pretty.

Can we avoid recession? Of course. But we have to start seeing action or it will not happen.
 
Chapdog said:
i am happy tho that everyone on here now recognizes that it takes 2Q's of negative GDP to constitute a recession. Notice all the media throwing that word around that obviously haven't even picked up an econ 101 book.
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That is because for the most part they are journalists. Most of them do not have backgrounds in economics or finance.
 
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