Iran War Watch






Frank Vaughan

@FPVaughanIII


Trump said a deal was easy & imminent. Iran denied it. Turns out Iran was right, again.The global economy is going to tank harder with every hour that ticks by. Fertilizer shortages amidst a U.S. drought. The world will be a systemically different place by fall.He has to take the L & get America out of the Middle East. Not to prevent problems, but to halt the increase in their magnitude. Will he do it? I don't know. I doubt it. Right now, extending the "ceasefire" is just delaying ripping the band aid off, one way or another.This was a mistake. It was always going to be a mistake. But it's done now. The error has been committed. Now its about damage mitigation. No outcome is clean, but the USA isn't going to be allowed to leave this conflict without leaving something on the table.It's time to get on with it.
 

Jürgen Nauditt
@jurgen_nauditt


Trump, the biggest failed strategist in US history, has plunged America into a strategic catastrophe.During his self-proclaimed “victory parade” against Iran, he squandered at least 45% of the US's precision-guided missile arsenal in just seven weeks—including half of all THAAD missiles and nearly 50% of Patriot interceptor missiles. This isn't some fake news blog reporting this, but CNN, citing a CSIS analysis and internal Pentagon data. The result? An “imminent risk” of munitions depletion should a real conflict erupt in the coming years—for example, with China. Trump has ruined the US defense capability for years to come. And for what?For nothing.No regime change in Iran. No destroyed nuclear program. No strategic breakthrough. Just a shaky ceasefire that gives the mullahs time to rearm while America stands naked. Trump, the great “Art of the Deal” master, has once again only produced hot air – and in doing so, burned through the most expensive and scarce weapons in the USA like a pubescent boy with fireworks.
 

Daniel Davis Deep Dive

@DanielLDavis1


This is the most vile, wicked, and unAmerican behavior I've seen in my adult lifetime. This is a profound absence of morality, gross violation of any laws that have ever existed, and puts us on the same mental plane as some of the early followers of Adolf Hitler. You think that's an exaggeration?Even the vile Hitler didn't seek to kill negotiators of other countries. And if you think this kill-them-all mentality will be limited to Iranian negotiators, you are fooling yourself. Once a leader has so dehumanized his opponents that you can callously call for them to be murdered for the "crime" of not agreeing to your terms (i.e., not surrendering), there will be no lower inhibition to killing larger and larger numbers of people who don't submit.One might say this is the personal opinion of a Washington Post - and by the way, they share this shame for publishing such alarming garbage - but that it was *reposted* by the president, and when tagging the oped Thiessen published with this murderous idea, Trump posted "Very True!!!" - so he is fully on board with the mentality.Silence won't work anymore, folks. Just saying "well, that's Trump," won't cut it. It is time to stand up for whatever is left of our morality and categorically declare that this is beyond the pale and condemn both Thiessen and the president for sharing such reprehensible views.--and I will be watching very closely to see what the likes of those who claim to have made Jesus, the Prince of Peace, their Lord, have to say about this. If they *yet again* give him a moral pass for the indefensible, then they can no longer claim to be a Christian, as this violates every tenet in the Bible. We're not talking about two combatants fighting it out on a battlefield, this is about us declaring our desire to murder non-combatants who dare to refuse to obey our demands for unconditional surrender.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2047312221177291000
View: https://x.com/DanielLDavis1/status/2047312221177291000
 
Donald J. Gorbachev

@donaldgorbachev


The five-second epistemology of the clock is ticking.President ALL CAPS posted. Inside of twelve hours from the one-hundred-fifty-nine-sunk-ships post. Inside of six hours from the sealed-up-tight post. Third post of the day on the same topic. The president who has all the time in the world has now posted three times in one day to tell people he is not anxious. Anxiety writes the post. Anxiety posts the post three times. Anxiety reads the replies.Read the inventory. Iran’s Navy is at the bottom of the sea. Their Air Force is demolished. Their anti-aircraft and radar weaponry is gone. Their leaders are no longer with us. The blockade is airtight.None of this is true.Iran’s Navy is not at the bottom of the sea. The president claimed one hundred fifty-nine Iranian naval vessels sunk this morning, a number higher than Iran’s order of battle. By this afternoon, the same navy that is sunk is running mine operations in the Strait that the president ordered the Navy to shoot at. A sunk navy cannot lay mines. The president wrote both sentences in one day.Iran’s Air Force is not demolished. The integrated air defense drilled across multiple provinces on Day 54. A drone was intercepted over Tehran in the same window. Western Tehran sectors activated in sequence. The Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters announced fingers on triggers and pre-determined targets. These are the announcements of an operating force. A demolished air force does not drill or intercept.Iran’s anti-aircraft and radar are not gone. They are active enough today that Poopy Jerry is parked in the northern Red Sea hiding from Yemeni drones. The British Pokémon Dragon retreated to port with water quality concerns. The Fifth Fleet has not entered the Strait in weeks. The only reason those postures exist is that the targeting environment is hot. Gone radar does not produce cautious carriers.
 
The pentagon's terrible war planning from Normandy and Vietnam to Iran.

We just miscalculated and underestimated.
~COL. Douglas Macgregor
 
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