McCains Short list for VP:
- Thread starter Chapdog
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blackascoal
The Force is With Me
I'm glad I got you laughing my brother .. I'll save my laughing for November.
The entire south is in play with Obama, especially states like South Carolina, Georgia, Mississippi, and others.
Additionally, the far west is at play for Obama.
I'll grant McCain Appalachia, Arizona, and others .. but you should ask the GOP why THEY believe Obama might win in a landslide.
Additionally, Kerry actually didn't do too badly .. for that matter, nor did Gore .. both of whom got more votes than the chimp.
Todays political map looks vastly different .. thank you George Bush and everybody who voted for him .. surprised a intelligent up-to-date brother like yourself doesn't know that.
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The Almighty
I agree that CO, Ohio, Virginia will definitely be potential swing states.
No chance on Indiana. Indiana is not going Dem. Misery will go to McCain as well.... not enough of an urban population to swing it in Obama's favor. The only way Misery swings (my opinion) is if McCaskill is the VP.
Given the proximity to AZ and McCains potential to gain among hispanic voters I don't think NM or NV will be in play.
You know what BAC, I bet ya, they are thinking they may not need a southern guy this time, because they have that particular southern voter "locked in" with Obama as the opponent candidate....and maybe, and i say that gingerly because I really am only speculating on this, but maybe this is why those two yanks...Romney and lieberman were on the short list? Or maybe they were trying to appease everyone in the initial intervues? I dunno....be certain of one thing, it will be a well thought out strategy on their end and mccain will not be the one making the final call imo....
* i know that has nothing to do with your response, just easier to get to ya to talk so i hit quote.
care
I'd say you are spot on.
Well, to be fair he is as old as Jesus Christ. But the similarities stop there.
Socrtease
Verified User
Colorado? New Mexico. Missouri and Iowa. and I predict Ohio moves to the dems even though Obama polls behind there by a bit right now. The sec state is a dem, the governor is a dem. There will be much more Dem push in ohio than in 2004.
Nationwide, the Obama camp says they believe that can easily register another 500,000 people to vote, In states like Iowa, Obama has over 30 field offices to McCain's two. The average donor to Obama has donated less than 50 dollars and he has raised more money that ANYONE. Everyone needs to remember that Kerry was ahead of Bush.
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The Almighty
I'm glad I got you laughing my brother .. I'll save my laughing for November.
The entire south is in play with Obama, especially states like South Carolina, Georgia, Mississippi, and others.
Additionally, the far west is at play for Obama.
I'll grant McCain Appalachia, Arizona, and others .. but you should ask the GOP why THEY believe Obama might win in a landslide.
Additionally, Kerry actually didn't do too badly .. for that matter, nor did Gore .. both of whom got more votes than the chimp.
Todays political map looks vastly different .. thank you George Bush and everybody who voted for him .. surprised a intelligent up-to-date brother like yourself doesn't know that.
1) Kerry did not get more votes than Bush.
2) Yes, both were close in electoral terms.
3) My point is not that Obama won't win, just that it will not be a landslide. Look at the number of states that are actually up for grabs each election cycle. The number has appeared to diminish each cycle. A Reagan style landslide is not going to happen with these two candidates.
4) You are kidding yourself if you think Obama puts the south into play. (Maybe under your scenario with Nunn, but otherwise please) Yes, he will energize the black and youth voters in those states, but I'll wager on each of those southern states that he won't win them.
blackascoal
The Force is With Me
I agree with you.
The process of picking a VP is as much PR as it is substanative.
I'n surprised they didn't throw a woman in there just for the PR.
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The Almighty
Colorado is definitely in play.... could easily go either way. Iowa could given McCains stance on ethanol potentially pissing off the corn farmers.
Misery... don't see that happening unless McCaskill is VP.
New Mexico... that state is always close, but I think proximity to AZ and hispanic voters push McCain to a win there.
Even if he does pull every state you mention... it won't be a landslide as BAC is predicting.
To be clear, at this point I do believe Obama will win... just not in this cakewalk landslide fashion that some delusional dems seem to think.
As for Ohio... at this point I agree that it will most likely shift to Obama. Which is why McCain has to try to poach MI or PA (both tall orders, though Romney could help in MI)
blackascoal
The Force is With Me
I think you underestimate two things ..
First, the dire situation Americans find themselves in today.
Secondly, the huge number of African-American and young voters in the south.
On that note I'd include Texas and Virginia as a possibility for Obama.
blackascoal
The Force is With Me
Romney's plus in Michigan will be negated by his minuses in the south.
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The Almighty
Like I stated... I will wager on any of the southern states you want.
Texas??? Now I know you are out of your mind. That is like saying McCain has a shot at CA.
I know you are optimistic, understandably so, but you ethusiasm appears to be getting the best of you. I think you severely underestimate how many people are not going to buy into the "McCain=Bush" line of crap the left is pushing. I know it is the mantra the left is chanting right now... but that is amongst yourselves. Not sticking among moderates and Independents.
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The Almighty
With their eyes...
Socrtease
Verified User
The Hispanic vote in this state has NEVER gone to the republican. Kerry won 2 to 1 among hispanics here in 2004. Richardson is not running this time so he will spend much more time campaigning here for the Dem and he could win a third term handly IF he was not term limited. Not only that but Dems are super motivated by the fact that Domenici's seat is going to go dem this round and my congressional district has no encumbent running because Pearce is running for Senate. There is also no Encumbent in the Albuquerque congressional district because Heather Wilson is running for Domenici's seat as well. The Repubs were not real organized here and have run two encumbent members of congress for the same Senate seat leaving two vacancies in two of the three republican held districts. There is a very good possibility that NM will have no Repub members of congress or senators come January of 09 for the first time in over 30 years. But I agree with you. no landslide.
uscitizen
Villified User
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The Almighty
yeah always with the dumb oneliners there dude ?
very tic
I felt in your case it was deserved.
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The Almighty
wow... how did I totally forget about Richardson? Good points above. Though I do think McCain will do far better among hispanics than Bush did, mainly due to his immigration position.
blackascoal
The Force is With Me
My brother, have you been paying attention to the recent elections in the south?
I evaluate most things carefully and I'm not prone to allowing optimism to get in the way of analysis .. but again, you underestimate the level of anti-Bush sentiment and the changing of the guard throughout the south.
I also think you underestimate the lack of enthusiasm for Mccain.
Again, you should ask the GOP why THEY see themselves in deep trouble and you can start by asking Ed Rollins.
AND, as the economy continues to shrink, gas prices continue to rise, and homeowners continue to find themselves sleeping in their cars .. which is particularly acute in the south .. many people would be ready to elect a goose if it could get them out of trouble.
This election does not bode well for the GOP on any level.
That's not optimism my friend .. thems the facts.