Alik Bahshi
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Alik Bakhshi
Netanyahu's new intrigue and its consequences
The protracted war in Gaza, without any prospects for achieving the set goal of destroying Hamas and freeing the hostages, does not seem to promise Netanyahu not only the post of prime minister, but political survival in general. Netanhu was initially mistaken in terms of the strategic rationale for the military invasion of Gaza, because it is impossible to deprive the people's dream of freedom, which Hamas has pledged to realize. If this is so, then every Palestinian is a potential Hamas militant, so Netanyahu himself has set himself the unattainable goal of destroying the Hamas organization, because in this case it is necessary to destroy all Palestinians in Gaza. However, the Israeli army, whether it wants it or not, is doing just that, judging by the number of victims and the scale of destruction, causing indignation of the world community, which, having already forgotten the terrorist attack of October 7, is demanding an end to the genocide of the Palestinians. America has to abandon the policy of double standard.(1,2) As a result, the UN, represented by the Security Council, makes a decision condemning Israel and demanding an end to military operations in Gaza. What follows is something more unpleasant for Netanyahu - Biden, in a personal telephone conversation, orders the withdrawal of the Israeli army from Gaza.
Thus, Netanyahu faces the fact of defeat, because without an army in Gaza, the desired task of destroying Hamas is not feasible. Moreover, there is a growing protest movement in Israel calling for Netanyahu to resign. And, what is most scary for the right camp of Israeli politicians, is Biden’s statement about the creation of a Palestinian state as the only possible option to end the Arab-Israeli conflict. (3,4) The situation for Netanyahu as a politician is developing very unenviable and he, as a skilled political intriguer, decides to take a desperate step to set fire to the entire Middle East and thereby divert attention from the war in Gaza. To this end, the Israeli air force launched a missile attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus, killing seven employees, including two high-ranking generals. Undoubtedly, this can be characterized as another terrorist attack (it must be said that the Arab-Israeli conflict is a series of terrorist attacks on both sides), especially outrageous because for the first time it was aimed at a diplomatic mission, and even by the state. This has never been seen before in the world of diplomacy. The result was the expected - Tehran’s angry threat of a retaliatory strike, which was part of Netanyahu’s plan, because in this case the entire Middle East would burn, and in such a way that it would not seem a little. At the same time, Netanyahu is not particularly concerned that the people of Israel will have to experience a missile attack from Iran.
The entire Middle Eastern region is such a tangled tangle that sometimes it seems that only a big war can not only unravel, but simply eliminate it at once, followed by new interstate relations. There is no country in the region without serious claims to its neighbor, here everything is against everyone, if we recall the eight-year war of Iran with Iraq, Iraq with Kuwait, the tense relations of Syria, Iraq, Armenia and Iran with Turkey, the war between Azerbaijan and Armenia that did not end with a peace treaty, strained relations between Azerbaijan and Iran, and this against the backdrop of religious hostility between Sunnis and Shiites. This turmoil is complemented by the constant intervention of such heavyweights as the USA, EU and Russia, which responds with terrorist attacks, for example September 11 as the most tragic (5,6). Naturally, strategic alliances are concluded between players, mostly temporary. The most significant of them today are the alliance between America and Israel, between Turkey and Azerbaijan, between Russia and Iran, also unannounced - between Iran and Armenia, and Israel with Azerbaijan.
It should be noted that it was Great Britain and France that laid a time bomb in the region when dividing the territory of the Ottoman Empire among themselves after the First World War. By the way, France has traditionally, since the era of the Crusades, been more partial than all Europeans to the Middle Eastern region; as the initiator of those ancient campaigns, it cannot forget the defeat that the Turks inflicted on it. Hence its constant sentiment against Turkey, and at the same time Azerbaijan. Today, it is France that is interfering in the relationship between Azerbaijan and Armenia, trying to prevent the conclusion of a peace treaty following the 2020 war, which put an end to Armenia’s 30-year occupation of Azerbaijani territory. It seems that the French liked the idea of a new Crusade, but in order not to be alone in this godly undertaking, they decided to attract fellow travelers through the UN and urgently convened the Security Council to condemn Azerbaijan with the adoption of subsequent sanctions, and possibly forceful methods. However, unexpectedly, one might say, right during a meeting of the Security Council, the Armenians let France down by officially abandoning territorial claims to Azerbaijan, thereby making France a laughing stock. Members of the Security Council, who already had enough problems with the war in Ukraine, breathed a sigh of relief and peacefully dispersed, mentally scolding the French representative.(7) It seems that Armenia is in vain looking in France for a replacement for Russia, which in the past created a state for the Armenians on the lands of Azerbaijan.( 8) However, betrayal is a historical tradition for Armenians, if we recall the wars between the Great Roman Empire and Persia.
By the way, the Iranian authorities are opposed to the appearance of France and the EU in the region, which will certainly break the Iran-Armenia strategic link directed against Azerbaijan. The fact is that Iran fears the unification of Northern Azerbaijan with Southern Azerbaijan, with its 30-40 million population of ethnic Azerbaijanis, which is the basis of the alliance with Armenia.
If Netanyahu’s plan succeeds, and Iran decides to launch a missile response at Israel out of revenge, then the war in Gaza will fade into the background. America, or even NATO, will get involved in the war on Israel’s side. There is no doubt that Israel will use the territory of Azerbaijan for a missile and drone attack, which will automatically bring Azerbaijan and Turkey into the coalition of opponents of Iran. As a result, Iran will fall under attack with a high probability of the fall of the ayatollah's stormy regime. A territorial reformatting with the subsequent unification of Azerbaijan is not excluded. The Turkic world will gain territorial continuity. There will be no need for the Zangezur corridor. The strategic highway connecting Baku with Ankara will pass through the ancient capital of Azerbaijan, the city of Tabriz. Such an outcome would be a national tragedy for Armenia; it would have to give up the revanchist dream of taking control of Karabakh.
1. Finally! https://alikbahshi.livejournal.com/108290.html
2. Netanyahu, Conscience, and October 7th. https://alikbahshi.livejournal.com/108570.html
3. The UN's fatal mistake. https://alikbahshi.livejournal.com/106403.html
4. Two states for two peoples. https://alikbahshi.livejournal.com/104990.html
5. ... And thunder struck. Israel, Vesti. 11.27.2001., 05.9.2002., https://alikbahshi.livejournal.com/2920.html
6. International terrorism and its stakeholders. https://alikbahshi.livejournal.com/1904.html
7. Armenia and the failed Crusade. https://alikbahshi.livejournal.com/103274.html
8. “The Corrupt Wench of Imperialism.” https://alikbahshi.livejournal.com/97866.html
04/12/2024э
Netanyahu's new intrigue and its consequences
The protracted war in Gaza, without any prospects for achieving the set goal of destroying Hamas and freeing the hostages, does not seem to promise Netanyahu not only the post of prime minister, but political survival in general. Netanhu was initially mistaken in terms of the strategic rationale for the military invasion of Gaza, because it is impossible to deprive the people's dream of freedom, which Hamas has pledged to realize. If this is so, then every Palestinian is a potential Hamas militant, so Netanyahu himself has set himself the unattainable goal of destroying the Hamas organization, because in this case it is necessary to destroy all Palestinians in Gaza. However, the Israeli army, whether it wants it or not, is doing just that, judging by the number of victims and the scale of destruction, causing indignation of the world community, which, having already forgotten the terrorist attack of October 7, is demanding an end to the genocide of the Palestinians. America has to abandon the policy of double standard.(1,2) As a result, the UN, represented by the Security Council, makes a decision condemning Israel and demanding an end to military operations in Gaza. What follows is something more unpleasant for Netanyahu - Biden, in a personal telephone conversation, orders the withdrawal of the Israeli army from Gaza.
Thus, Netanyahu faces the fact of defeat, because without an army in Gaza, the desired task of destroying Hamas is not feasible. Moreover, there is a growing protest movement in Israel calling for Netanyahu to resign. And, what is most scary for the right camp of Israeli politicians, is Biden’s statement about the creation of a Palestinian state as the only possible option to end the Arab-Israeli conflict. (3,4) The situation for Netanyahu as a politician is developing very unenviable and he, as a skilled political intriguer, decides to take a desperate step to set fire to the entire Middle East and thereby divert attention from the war in Gaza. To this end, the Israeli air force launched a missile attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus, killing seven employees, including two high-ranking generals. Undoubtedly, this can be characterized as another terrorist attack (it must be said that the Arab-Israeli conflict is a series of terrorist attacks on both sides), especially outrageous because for the first time it was aimed at a diplomatic mission, and even by the state. This has never been seen before in the world of diplomacy. The result was the expected - Tehran’s angry threat of a retaliatory strike, which was part of Netanyahu’s plan, because in this case the entire Middle East would burn, and in such a way that it would not seem a little. At the same time, Netanyahu is not particularly concerned that the people of Israel will have to experience a missile attack from Iran.
The entire Middle Eastern region is such a tangled tangle that sometimes it seems that only a big war can not only unravel, but simply eliminate it at once, followed by new interstate relations. There is no country in the region without serious claims to its neighbor, here everything is against everyone, if we recall the eight-year war of Iran with Iraq, Iraq with Kuwait, the tense relations of Syria, Iraq, Armenia and Iran with Turkey, the war between Azerbaijan and Armenia that did not end with a peace treaty, strained relations between Azerbaijan and Iran, and this against the backdrop of religious hostility between Sunnis and Shiites. This turmoil is complemented by the constant intervention of such heavyweights as the USA, EU and Russia, which responds with terrorist attacks, for example September 11 as the most tragic (5,6). Naturally, strategic alliances are concluded between players, mostly temporary. The most significant of them today are the alliance between America and Israel, between Turkey and Azerbaijan, between Russia and Iran, also unannounced - between Iran and Armenia, and Israel with Azerbaijan.
It should be noted that it was Great Britain and France that laid a time bomb in the region when dividing the territory of the Ottoman Empire among themselves after the First World War. By the way, France has traditionally, since the era of the Crusades, been more partial than all Europeans to the Middle Eastern region; as the initiator of those ancient campaigns, it cannot forget the defeat that the Turks inflicted on it. Hence its constant sentiment against Turkey, and at the same time Azerbaijan. Today, it is France that is interfering in the relationship between Azerbaijan and Armenia, trying to prevent the conclusion of a peace treaty following the 2020 war, which put an end to Armenia’s 30-year occupation of Azerbaijani territory. It seems that the French liked the idea of a new Crusade, but in order not to be alone in this godly undertaking, they decided to attract fellow travelers through the UN and urgently convened the Security Council to condemn Azerbaijan with the adoption of subsequent sanctions, and possibly forceful methods. However, unexpectedly, one might say, right during a meeting of the Security Council, the Armenians let France down by officially abandoning territorial claims to Azerbaijan, thereby making France a laughing stock. Members of the Security Council, who already had enough problems with the war in Ukraine, breathed a sigh of relief and peacefully dispersed, mentally scolding the French representative.(7) It seems that Armenia is in vain looking in France for a replacement for Russia, which in the past created a state for the Armenians on the lands of Azerbaijan.( 8) However, betrayal is a historical tradition for Armenians, if we recall the wars between the Great Roman Empire and Persia.
By the way, the Iranian authorities are opposed to the appearance of France and the EU in the region, which will certainly break the Iran-Armenia strategic link directed against Azerbaijan. The fact is that Iran fears the unification of Northern Azerbaijan with Southern Azerbaijan, with its 30-40 million population of ethnic Azerbaijanis, which is the basis of the alliance with Armenia.
If Netanyahu’s plan succeeds, and Iran decides to launch a missile response at Israel out of revenge, then the war in Gaza will fade into the background. America, or even NATO, will get involved in the war on Israel’s side. There is no doubt that Israel will use the territory of Azerbaijan for a missile and drone attack, which will automatically bring Azerbaijan and Turkey into the coalition of opponents of Iran. As a result, Iran will fall under attack with a high probability of the fall of the ayatollah's stormy regime. A territorial reformatting with the subsequent unification of Azerbaijan is not excluded. The Turkic world will gain territorial continuity. There will be no need for the Zangezur corridor. The strategic highway connecting Baku with Ankara will pass through the ancient capital of Azerbaijan, the city of Tabriz. Such an outcome would be a national tragedy for Armenia; it would have to give up the revanchist dream of taking control of Karabakh.
1. Finally! https://alikbahshi.livejournal.com/108290.html
2. Netanyahu, Conscience, and October 7th. https://alikbahshi.livejournal.com/108570.html
3. The UN's fatal mistake. https://alikbahshi.livejournal.com/106403.html
4. Two states for two peoples. https://alikbahshi.livejournal.com/104990.html
5. ... And thunder struck. Israel, Vesti. 11.27.2001., 05.9.2002., https://alikbahshi.livejournal.com/2920.html
6. International terrorism and its stakeholders. https://alikbahshi.livejournal.com/1904.html
7. Armenia and the failed Crusade. https://alikbahshi.livejournal.com/103274.html
8. “The Corrupt Wench of Imperialism.” https://alikbahshi.livejournal.com/97866.html
04/12/2024э
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