October surprise? Why OPEC's planned price hike could pummel Democrats

ExpressLane said:
OPEC + does have a bigger lever but the US was the single largest producer , and consumer, in the World.
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...and again, that won't change how it impacts the prices overall.

We are but ONE provider in a sea of oil providers. If the folks who have MORE oil than we do (combined) all agree to slash production then the price WILL go up. Regardless of how pure and blessed our mighty geysers of oil are.

(Also a goodly amount of our production increases come at the expense of secondary recovery and enhanced recovery techniques which are inherently more expensive to produce than some of the free flowing wells would be.)
 
ExpressLane said:
OPEC + does have a bigger lever but the US was the single largest producer , and consumer, in the World.
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It doesn't fucking matter how much oil the US produces because OPEC produces more and can ramp up or ramp back production depending on what their goal is.

If their goal is to bankrupt US oil companies, then they would increase production in order to drive down the price per barrel.

If their goal is to make themselves richer, then they would decrease production in order to drive UP the price per barrel.

Regardless, the global oil market is controlled by OPEC and will always be controlled by them until the cartel is broken.
 
Perry Phimosis said:
Yeah, saw this this morning. It's a tough one, though. OPEC+ wants to hedge their bets against a possible recession and decrease in demand which would crater the prices for them. Can't really blame capitalists for being capitalists I suppose. (And this has nothing to do with Keystone which was meant to pump Alberta tar sands oil down to ports to be exported and sold elsewhere. That oil wasn't intended for the US and won't see the US)

But by the same token if the Middle East and associated folks (including Russia) want America controlled by the Right again this is the best possible time to do this. It will definitely aid the GOP in retaking the legislature.

This might actually work to Russia's goals given the GOP's current preference for Russian autocrats, but I don't think it will be great for most of the other OPEC+ members.

Driving by the gas station the other day made me glad I went EV.
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Actually the Canadian oil is sour oil and much of it have been refined in the Gulf Coast refineries which are designed for sour crude. They prefer to refine it because sour crude is sold at a discount. Personally I think OPEC is trying to increase the price of oil. They get more dollars by selling less oil.

The Keystone XL pipeline "doesn’t even have any oil for America."
https://www.politifact.com/factchec...ibrand/will-oil-keystone-xl-pipeline-stay-us/

MOSTLY FALSE
 
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LV426 said:
It doesn't fucking matter how much oil the US produces because OPEC produces more and can ramp up or ramp back production depending on what their goal is.

If their goal is to bankrupt US oil companies, then they would increase production in order to drive down the price per barrel.

If their goal is to make themselves richer, then they would decrease production in order to drive UP the price per barrel.

Regardless, the global oil market is controlled by OPEC and will always be controlled by them until the cartel is broken.
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Or alternative energy makes them obsolete.
 
ExpressLane said:
Actually the Canadian oil is sour oil and much of it have been refined in the Gulf Coast refineries which are designed for sour crude.
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Completely fucking wrong.

Most all the Canadian Tar Sands sludge goes to the US PADD II region, which is Southern Illinois.

The reason it goes to US PADD II is because that's where the current pipelines lead.

Those pipelines carry so much Tar Sands sludge that refineries in US PADD II get a price discount because of the surplus. Because of US PADD II's geography, the oil from Alberta couldn't be sold to other refineries.

KXL was meant to bypass those PADD II refineries so that the Tar Sands sludge could be sold on the global market for far higher than US PADD II pays right now. So KXL would increase the price of oil and gasoline in the US because it will eliminate the surplus supply we currently enjoy. And we know this because it is literally what TransCanada said in their permit application.
 
LV426 said:
When I open your link and search for what you wrote here, I don't see those numbers at all.

So you are lying.

Again.

LYING. AGAIN.

All you fucking do here is lie.
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It's there so stop lying ,stupid

Manufacturing refers to industries belonging to ISIC divisions 15-37. Value added is the net output of a sector after adding up all outputs and subtracting intermediate inputs. It is calculated without making deductions for depreciation of fabricated assets or depletion and degradation of natural resources. The origin of value added is determined by the International Standard Industrial Classification (ISIC), revision 3. Data are in current U.S. dollars.
U.S. manufacturing output for 2020 was $2,337.55B, a 1.21% decline from 2019.
U.S. manufacturing output for 2019 was $2,366.30B, a 1.63% increase from 2018.
U.S. manufacturing output for 2018 was $2,328.23B, a 6.2% increase from 2017.
U.S. manufacturing output for 2017 was $2,192.41B, a 4.49% increase from 2016.

https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/USA/united-states/manufacturing-output
 
LV426 said:
Completely fucking wrong.

Most all the Canadian Tar Sands sludge goes to the US PADD II region, which is Southern Illinois.

The reason it goes to US PADD II is because that's where the current pipelines lead.

Those pipelines carry so much Tar Sands sludge that refineries in US PADD II get a price discount because of the surplus. Because of US PADD II's geography, the oil from Alberta couldn't be sold to other refineries.

KXL was meant to bypass those PADD II refineries so that the Tar Sands sludge could be sold on the global market for far higher than US PADD II pays right now. So KXL would increase the price of oil and gasoline in the US because it will eliminate the surplus supply we currently enjoy. And we know this because it is literally what TransCanada said in their permit application.
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The Keystone XL pipeline "doesn’t even have any oil for America.

"https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2017/apr/16/kirsten-gillibrand/will-oil-keystone-xl-pipeline-stay-us/

MOSTLY FALSE!
 
Phantasmal said:
Or alternative energy makes them obsolete.
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Yes they do not want the US to increase production . But no oil will never be obsolete. Medicine, plastic, clothing, fertilizer are all fossil fuel products and so is a huge amount of electricity is made with fossil fuels.
 
LV426 said:
It doesn't fucking matter how much oil the US produces because OPEC produces more and can ramp up or ramp back production depending on what their goal is.

If their goal is to bankrupt US oil companies, then they would increase production in order to drive down the price per barrel.

If their goal is to make themselves richer, then they would decrease production in order to drive UP the price per barrel.

Regardless, the global oil market is controlled by OPEC and will always be controlled by them until the cartel is broken.
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If we make enough or more than we use the World does not have to compete with us for foreign oil. I personally would prefer to pay oil field workers in the US than in Saudi Arabia or Russia. And I would prefer to keep our dollars in the US rather than sending them to OPEC + , Iran, or Venezuela.
 
ExpressLane said:
The Keystone XL pipeline "doesn’t even have any oil for America.
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The entire purpose of KXL was to bypass US PADD II refineries so TransCanada could sell the Tar Sands sludge on the global market and make billions of dollars.

And again, we know this to be true because it is literally what TransCanada said in their permit application:

“Existing markets for Canadian heavy crude, principally PADD II [U.S. Midwest], are currently oversupplied, resulting in price discounting for Canadian heavy crude oil. Access to the USGC [U.S. Gulf Coast] via the Keystone XL Pipeline is expected to strengthen Canadian crude oil pricing in [the Midwest] by removing this oversupply. This is expected to increase the price of heavy crude to the equivalent cost of imported crude. The resultant increase in the price of heavy crude is estimated to provide an increase in annual revenue to the Canadian producing industry in 2013 of US $2 billion to US $3.9 billion.”
 
ExpressLane said:
Yes they do not want the US to increase production
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OPEC does not care about US production AT ALL.

Any production increases by the US are cancelled out by equal production cuts by OPEC, thus maintaining the current price per barrel.

What is so hard for you to understand about that?

Why are you struggling to grasp this?

Probably because you're a fucking idiot.
 
LV426 said:
OPEC does not care about US production AT ALL.

Any production increases by the US are cancelled out by equal production cuts by OPEC, thus maintaining the current price per barrel.

.
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This is PRECISELY how so many good oil field jobs in the Dakotas came and went in a flash. America started producing more, prices overall dropped, OPEC+ increased production and shut down the US fields tout de suite!
 
ExpressLane said:
If we make enough or more than we use the World does not have to compete with us for foreign oil.
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It's not our fucking oil you dipshit.

The oil belongs to the private companies that extract and/or refine it, and they are free to sell it to whomever they want on the global markets.

You're so fucking stupid you don't understand that oil is bought and sold on global markets, and we -as in the citizenry- only own what is in the strategic reserve.

Everything else belongs to oil companies.

So if you want true energy independence, the only path to that is nationalizing the oil companies in the US.

Everything else is moot.
 
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