[h=3]Polls[/h]https://twitter.com/intent/tweet?ur...ext=The+Polls.+Are.+RIGGED.&via=chicksonright http://www.facebook.com/sharer.php?...e-polls-are-rigged/&t=The+Polls.+Are.+RIGGED.
[h=2]The Polls. Are. RIGGED.[/h]
Hannah Bleau (Red Dawn)October 15, 2016 12:34pm
We need to talk about the polls, you guys. They’re tripping a lot of people up and causing some to slip into bouts of depression. I know it’s easy to lose hope. I know it’s tempting to expect Trump to lose in order to save yourself the disappointment next month (holy cow– NEXT MONTH?!), but don’t do it. Not yet. I lecture myself every single day. Don’t lose hope yet. Admittedly, that’s difficult to do when members of the mainstream media are actively colluding with the Clinton campaign, and the polls are showing Hillary winning by a crapton, but maybe this will help.
A few days ago, we dissected the latest NBC/WSJ poll, which showed Hillary Clinton up by double digits (46% to 35% in a four-way race and 52% to 38% in a two-way race). As it turns out, there are loads of reasons to question the integrity of that particular poll. For starters, the poll had a small sample size and of course, oversampled Democrats. That wasn’t even the worst part. The polling agency, Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies, has ties to a Clinton Super-PAC. In fact, the agency’s president, Geoff Garin, is currently serving as “a strategic adviser for Priorities USA in support of Hillary Clinton’s election.”
No conflict of interest there whatsoever. Mhm.
To make matters worse, there’s a financial connection between Hillary Clinton’s Priorities USA Super-PAC and the polling agency. In September, the PAC gave $220,500 to Hart Research Associates. You can read about that in greater detail here.
Despite the shady backdoor deals, Real Clear Politics factored the poll into their rolling national average, which currently looks like this:
Not good. Not good at all. And that’s only one example. If you dig, you can find sketchy ties associated with other news outlets and polling agencies. For example, Thomson Reuters, owner of Reuters news service, is a Clinton Foundation donor ($1 million- $5 million). Because of course he is.
But thanks to a completely awesome clever and competent reader, I have a better understanding of various polling agencies’ methods and RCP’s “choosiness” with polls and thought I’d share it with you.
Here’s the main question. Does RCP’s average actually reflect the opinions of the American people? How does RCP even select which polls it factors into the average? How do we know the polls they use are trustworthy?
If there’s one thing consistent about the polls, it’s this: They vastly oversample Democrats (Republicans are generally oversampled too, but not as much as Democrats) and under-sample Independents.
In other words…
The polls are rigged for Hillary. Plain and simple. DO NOT let them discourage you. Polls are supposed to reflect public opinion, but Hillary’s minions are in the business of shaping public opinion. Don’t be fooled. Don’t be discouraged. Don’t allow these polls to stop you from going out and voting. That’s exactly what they want.
http://www.chicksontheright.com/the-polls-are-rigged/?utm_source=FED&utm_medium=FED&utm_campaign=FED
[h=2]The Polls. Are. RIGGED.[/h]
Hannah Bleau (Red Dawn)October 15, 2016 12:34pmWe need to talk about the polls, you guys. They’re tripping a lot of people up and causing some to slip into bouts of depression. I know it’s easy to lose hope. I know it’s tempting to expect Trump to lose in order to save yourself the disappointment next month (holy cow– NEXT MONTH?!), but don’t do it. Not yet. I lecture myself every single day. Don’t lose hope yet. Admittedly, that’s difficult to do when members of the mainstream media are actively colluding with the Clinton campaign, and the polls are showing Hillary winning by a crapton, but maybe this will help.
A few days ago, we dissected the latest NBC/WSJ poll, which showed Hillary Clinton up by double digits (46% to 35% in a four-way race and 52% to 38% in a two-way race). As it turns out, there are loads of reasons to question the integrity of that particular poll. For starters, the poll had a small sample size and of course, oversampled Democrats. That wasn’t even the worst part. The polling agency, Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies, has ties to a Clinton Super-PAC. In fact, the agency’s president, Geoff Garin, is currently serving as “a strategic adviser for Priorities USA in support of Hillary Clinton’s election.”
No conflict of interest there whatsoever. Mhm.
To make matters worse, there’s a financial connection between Hillary Clinton’s Priorities USA Super-PAC and the polling agency. In September, the PAC gave $220,500 to Hart Research Associates. You can read about that in greater detail here.
Despite the shady backdoor deals, Real Clear Politics factored the poll into their rolling national average, which currently looks like this:
Not good. Not good at all. And that’s only one example. If you dig, you can find sketchy ties associated with other news outlets and polling agencies. For example, Thomson Reuters, owner of Reuters news service, is a Clinton Foundation donor ($1 million- $5 million). Because of course he is.
But thanks to a completely awesome clever and competent reader, I have a better understanding of various polling agencies’ methods and RCP’s “choosiness” with polls and thought I’d share it with you.
Here’s the main question. Does RCP’s average actually reflect the opinions of the American people? How does RCP even select which polls it factors into the average? How do we know the polls they use are trustworthy?
If there’s one thing consistent about the polls, it’s this: They vastly oversample Democrats (Republicans are generally oversampled too, but not as much as Democrats) and under-sample Independents.
In other words…
What’s important to note is that these differences are “statistically significant.” This means that, compared to the venerated Gallup poll, the polls picked by RCP seem to amplify the voices of Democratic voters while diminishing the voices of independents. In other words, the voters who may be most interested in the non-establishment, populist campaigns of Trump, Johnson, and Stein are systematically underrepresented in the Average. I’ve posted the data for others to examine in whatever manner they choose.
Some readers will say that the issue of under-representation is “corrected” through a statistical means known as “weighting.” But this is not true – the vast majority of polls do not weigh results based on political affiliation. Moreover, the weighting of surveys allows considerable freedom to the data analyst to modify the data in a whole variety of ways. As Columbia Professor Andrew Gelman has noted, “survey weighting is a mess.”
Another major problem with RCP’s national polling average? RCP doesn’t explicitly reveal the criteria used to determine which polls it factors into the average, meaning they’re essentially choosing whatever polls they like for whatever reason– polls which seem to be inherently skewed in favor of Hillary, whether intentional or not. We’re just scratching the surface here.Some readers will say that the issue of under-representation is “corrected” through a statistical means known as “weighting.” But this is not true – the vast majority of polls do not weigh results based on political affiliation. Moreover, the weighting of surveys allows considerable freedom to the data analyst to modify the data in a whole variety of ways. As Columbia Professor Andrew Gelman has noted, “survey weighting is a mess.”
The polls are rigged for Hillary. Plain and simple. DO NOT let them discourage you. Polls are supposed to reflect public opinion, but Hillary’s minions are in the business of shaping public opinion. Don’t be fooled. Don’t be discouraged. Don’t allow these polls to stop you from going out and voting. That’s exactly what they want.
http://www.chicksontheright.com/the-polls-are-rigged/?utm_source=FED&utm_medium=FED&utm_campaign=FED
