Pollster Nate Silver predicts Trump poised to win Electoral College amid 'mediocre' Harris polling

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ExpressLane

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Pollster Nate Silver predicts Trump poised to win Electoral College amid 'mediocre' Harris polling​

Prominent elections analyst and statistician Nate Silver said Wednesday that former President Trump is now electorally favored to defeat Kamala Harris in November by the widest margin in months.

Silver released his latest election forecast, writing on his Substack, "The forecast is still in toss-up range, but Trump’s chances of winning are his highest since July 30," Silver wrote.

Silver's nuanced election forecast model shows Trump's chances of winning the Electoral College have increased from 52.4% to 58.2% since last Thursday. Harris' odds meanwhile, have decreased from 47.3% to 41.6%.


He also noted that Harris seemingly didn't benefit from a DNC bounce as much as election models had predicted.



"There's room to debate the convention bounce stuff, but Harris has been getting a lot of mediocre state polls lately," Silver wrote.

Last week, Silver warned that Harris was poised to be a "slight underdog" in Pennsylvania, whose 19 electoral votes are expected to play a significant part in determining the outcome of the presidential election.

On Wednesday, the polling guru delivered more bad news for the Harris campaign,
writing on X that Michigan could present an "issue" for Harris after weeks of lackluster numbers in the state.

Polling shows Harris holding a slight lead in the battleground state with its 15 electoral votes, a narrow advantage that Silver says should make the Harris campaign nervous....
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Kamala is going the wrong way. Maybe Putin's endorsement will help her.
 
ExpressLane said:
Have you ever seen Harris try to think on her feet without a teleprompter? The best predictor of future performance is past performance.
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I have indeed.

You get that she has been in debates before, right? And despite what Tulsi imagines, she did very well.

Trump is the personification of word salad these days. I'm hoping he talks about how some Dem states allow for the execution of babies after birth, or how schools do gender altering surgeries & stuff like that...
 
ExpressLane said:
After the debate Harris will lose even more ground.
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e02cd756a1f12801115177f9044de580426b8f64c697f00f1dd52da9eb3df250_1.jpg
 
BartenderElite said:
I have indeed.

You get that she has been in debates before, right? And despite what Tulsi imagines, she did very well.

Trump is the personification of word salad these days. I'm hoping he talks about how some Dem states allow for the execution of babies after birth, or how schools do gender altering surgeries & stuff like that...
Click to expand...
She's been in debates before and fallen far short. Otherwise, she wouldn't have dropped out of her presidential race before the first primary. She doesn't connect with the audience or public, frequently sounds like she's talking to small children, and that's on the rare occasion when she's not tossing a word salad.
 
T. A. Gardner said:
She's been in debates before and fallen far short. Otherwise, she wouldn't have dropped out of her presidential race before the first primary. She doesn't connect with the audience or public, frequently sounds like she's talking to small children, and that's on the rare occasion when she's not tossing a word salad.
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That's not much more than a partisan take.

She has quite obviously connected w/ the public this year.
 
ExpressLane said:

Pollster Nate Silver predicts Trump poised to win Electoral College amid 'mediocre' Harris polling​

Prominent elections analyst and statistician Nate Silver said Wednesday that former President Trump is now electorally favored to defeat Kamala Harris in November by the widest margin in months.

Silver released his latest election forecast, writing on his Substack, "The forecast is still in toss-up range, but Trump’s chances of winning are his highest since July 30," Silver wrote.

Silver's nuanced election forecast model shows Trump's chances of winning the Electoral College have increased from 52.4% to 58.2% since last Thursday. Harris' odds meanwhile, have decreased from 47.3% to 41.6%.


He also noted that Harris seemingly didn't benefit from a DNC bounce as much as election models had predicted.



"There's room to debate the convention bounce stuff, but Harris has been getting a lot of mediocre state polls lately," Silver wrote.

Last week, Silver warned that Harris was poised to be a "slight underdog" in Pennsylvania, whose 19 electoral votes are expected to play a significant part in determining the outcome of the presidential election.

On Wednesday, the polling guru delivered more bad news for the Harris campaign,
writing on X that Michigan could present an "issue" for Harris after weeks of lackluster numbers in the state.

Polling shows Harris holding a slight lead in the battleground state with its 15 electoral votes, a narrow advantage that Silver says should make the Harris campaign nervous....
=======================================

Kamala is going the wrong way. Maybe Putin's endorsement will help her.
Click to expand...
Putin's endorsement will help Trump.
 
ExpressLane said:

Pollster Nate Silver predicts Trump poised to win Electoral College amid 'mediocre' Harris polling​

Prominent elections analyst and statistician Nate Silver said Wednesday that former President Trump is now electorally favored to defeat Kamala Harris in November by the widest margin in months.

Silver released his latest election forecast, writing on his Substack, "The forecast is still in toss-up range, but Trump’s chances of winning are his highest since July 30," Silver wrote.

Silver's nuanced election forecast model shows Trump's chances of winning the Electoral College have increased from 52.4% to 58.2% since last Thursday. Harris' odds meanwhile, have decreased from 47.3% to 41.6%.


He also noted that Harris seemingly didn't benefit from a DNC bounce as much as election models had predicted.



"There's room to debate the convention bounce stuff, but Harris has been getting a lot of mediocre state polls lately," Silver wrote.

Last week, Silver warned that Harris was poised to be a "slight underdog" in Pennsylvania, whose 19 electoral votes are expected to play a significant part in determining the outcome of the presidential election.

On Wednesday, the polling guru delivered more bad news for the Harris campaign,
writing on X that Michigan could present an "issue" for Harris after weeks of lackluster numbers in the state.

Polling shows Harris holding a slight lead in the battleground state with its 15 electoral votes, a narrow advantage that Silver says should make the Harris campaign nervous....
=======================================

Kamala is going the wrong way. Maybe Putin's endorsement will help her.
Click to expand...
He also predicted after the debate that Biden was still favored to win

Silver hasn’t been any more predictive since 2014 than the latest poll. It is a computer program, and if you follow sports, you’d never bet on computer models
 
T. A. Gardner said:
She's been in debates before and fallen far short. Otherwise, she wouldn't have dropped out of her presidential race before the first primary. She doesn't connect with the audience or public, frequently sounds like she's talking to small children, and that's on the rare occasion when she's not tossing a word salad.
Click to expand...
This is so absurd. How in a sane world does this happen?
 
Mass insanity is very common near the end of the death cycle of societies and civilizations....now it is our turn.
 
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