Pollster Nate Silver predicts Trump poised to win Electoral College amid 'mediocre' Harris polling

[ExpressLane]

Classic!

 

[ExpressLane]

He also predicted after the debate that Biden was still favored to win

Silver hasn’t been any more predictive since 2014 than the latest poll. It is a computer program, and if you follow sports, you’d never bet on computer models

Biden did not lose after the debate did he?

 

[Crepitus]

Any retard on the planet can make a youtube video.

 

[ExpressLane]

Any retard on the planet can make a youtube video.

So you can make one.

Nate Silver now says Trump has a 62% chance to win.

 

[serendipity]

Arsebender's favourite dressing.

 

[martin]

No, that's historical fact.

Historical fact she's connected with the public strikingly well since Biden dropped out.

Also, Silver is not predicting in September that she will lose. He's not stupid. He's saying the data shows Trump has a slight lead, a lot slighter than it was before Harris entered the picture.

 

[martin]

p.s. on the above.

You're right to cite Silver as a source. He's recognized as the best poll analyzer in the business. In 2020, the day before the election, he gave Trump a ten (10) percent chance of winning. He was the only forecaster to correctly pick the winner in every state in the Obama/Romney election.

 

[TOP]

Pollster Nate Silver predicts Trump poised to win Electoral College amid 'mediocre' Harris polling​

Prominent elections analyst and statistician Nate Silver said Wednesday that former President Trump is now electorally favored to defeat Kamala Harris in November by the widest margin in months.

Silver released his latest election forecast, writing on his Substack, "The forecast is still in toss-up range, but Trump’s chances of winning are his highest since July 30," Silver wrote.

Silver's nuanced election forecast model shows Trump's chances of winning the Electoral College have increased from 52.4% to 58.2% since last Thursday. Harris' odds meanwhile, have decreased from 47.3% to 41.6%.


He also noted that Harris seemingly didn't benefit from a DNC bounce as much as election models had predicted.



"There's room to debate the convention bounce stuff, but Harris has been getting a lot of mediocre state polls lately," Silver wrote.

Last week, Silver warned that Harris was poised to be a "slight underdog" in Pennsylvania, whose 19 electoral votes are expected to play a significant part in determining the outcome of the presidential election.

On Wednesday, the polling guru delivered more bad news for the Harris campaign,
writing on X that Michigan could present an "issue" for Harris after weeks of lackluster numbers in the state.

Polling shows Harris holding a slight lead in the battleground state with its 15 electoral votes, a narrow advantage that Silver says should make the Harris campaign nervous....
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Kamala is going the wrong way. Maybe Putin's endorsement will help her.

Her "infectious laugh" is what won Putin over...