Quarter 2 GDP Figure Prediction

[gfm7175]

It was just today announced that the Q1 GDP was (on the surface) a rather poor -0.3%. JPP's leftists are very quick to gloat about "Trump failing" without even realizing what is actually happening (and that the -0.3% figure is actually a "falsely low" figure).

So, what is happening? If you look at Table 1 of the GDP report (found HERE), you will notice
that investment is way up (21.9%), of which equipment is up 22.5%. You will also notice that imports are WAY up (41.3%), of which goods is up 50.9%.

What does this mean?? This means that companies are currently in the process of shifting their manufacturing from overseas and into the USA. IOW, this Q1 GDP figure is artificially low (to the tune of roughly 5 percentage points) due to a TEMPORARY but massive increase in imports due to Trump's tariff announcements.

Therefore, I predict that the Q2 GDP figure (announced at the end of July) will be MUCH higher than this misleadingly "poor" Q1 figure (I'm conservatively guessing that the Q2 figure will be at least 4%) as the huge spike in imports will no longer be present to deduct from the GDP figure anymore.

Side prediction: Cargo shipments from China to USA will severely drop during Q2 and the lying manipulative media will purposely ignore the fact that imports went through the roof during Q1, which is what caused the Q1 GDP figure to be "low". Since they MUUUUUST OPPOSEEEEEE TRUMPPPPP at every turn, they will do their typical cherry picking BS, solely focusing on the upcoming massive DROP in ORDERS from China (while purposely ignoring the massive INCREASE in IMPORTS during Q1). They will use that upcoming massive drop in orders in order to pretend that Trump's tariffs are "hurting consumers", even though the products that "aren't being ordered anymore" are ALREADY HERE (purchased in advance).

 

[gfm7175]

q2 will probably come in at 2.5%, which combined with -0.5% from q1, means the first half of the year will be at 1%(the average of the two quarters). Given the current situation, 1% is what passes as good news. Normally, 1% is bad.

To JPP Forum members: Walter has now likewise made a prediction about the Q2 GDP data that will be released on July 30th. He's thinking around 2.5% for the topline number. I (conservatively) guessed at least 4%. In two weeks, we will all find out who happens to be correct.

NOTE: My GDP prediction was already made months ago... In fact, it was made on the very same day that the Q1 results were released (April 30th).

 

[Walt]

Walter has now likewise made a prediction about the Q2 GDP data that will be released on July 30th.

The Atlanta Fed model is usually fairly close. It might be off by a little, but it is probably about 2.5%. q1 is already known to be -0.5%. It might be revised, but that is looking doubtful at this point. So the first half is around 1%.

I (conservatively) guessed at least 4%.

Wow, you really think that high. It is a brave guess.

Just looking around at the layoffs, and everyone afraid to hire, it does not look like 4% growth. The Atlanta Fed model seems a bit high to me, but very possible, so I will go with that.

My GDP prediction was already made months ago...

And you are sticking with it?

The diversity of capitalism makes us stronger. Good luck with your predictions. I would certainly like 4+% growth.

 

[gfm7175]

The Atlanta Fed model is usually fairly close. It might be off by a little, but it is probably about 2.5%. q1 is already known to be -0.5%. It might be revised, but that is looking doubtful at this point. So the first half is around 1%.


Wow, you really think that high. It is a brave guess.

Just looking around at the layoffs, and everyone afraid to hire, it does not look like 4% growth. The Atlanta Fed model seems a bit high to me, but very possible, so I will go with that.


And you are sticking with it?

The diversity of capitalism makes us stronger. Good luck with your predictions. I would certainly like 4+% growth.

The difference between you and me is that I do not outsource my thinking. And yes, I am sticking with it.

 

[Walt]

The difference between you and me is that I do not outsource my thinking. And yes, I am sticking with it.

I read other people's thinking, and learn from it. We, human beings, are not as smart as we like to believe. We do well on a team, but as uneducated individuals we do quite poorly.

 

[gfm7175]

I read other people's thinking, and learn from it. We, human beings, are not as smart as we like to believe. We do well on a team, but as uneducated individuals we do quite poorly.

No, you simply outsource your thinking to others.

 

[gfm7175]

The Atlanta Fed has a good model for now casting the GDP. Now casting is when you forecast the future numbers on the current situation. It has been making some amazing strides in the last decade or so.

It is not exact, but gives a good range. If we do get 4+%, as you predict, we will have to really rethink the models that are so off.

Quoted here for future reference.

 

[gfm7175]

The report is now out, and the topline GDP number actually ended up being 3.0%. This result is a whole percentage point lower than I had officially predicted in the OP of this thread three months ago on April 30th.

The Atlanta Fed model (who did Walter's thinking for him), was at about 2.5% in the weeks leading up to the release, and they put out a final number of 2.9% the day before the release.

However, back on the very same April 30th date that I made my prediction, they were initially at 2.4%, before diving way down to 1.1% the very next day, before jumping back up to 2.2% a week later. So let's just say that they were at about 2% at the same time (while I was at 4%).

Thus, the final result of 3% was smack dab in-between my guess of 4% and their guess of 2%.

After only looking at the topline number, and the graph of how each category affected the GDP figure, it turns out that my prediction PERFECTLY NAILED the import portion of it (which was the whole point of my post back on April 30th). The government and export portions also turned out roughly where I expected them to be. While I also expected the consumer spending portion to increase the topline GDP by a tad bit more than it actually did, I did not expect the investment portion to lower the topline GDP figure by nearly as much as it ended up doing, so my "miss" on the investment portion was why my prediction ended up being a whole percentage point higher than the actual result.

I'll dig into the details of the topline number later to provide my thoughts on whether or not the 3.0% number is actually a "good" number, as anybody quickly glancing at it would assume it to be.

I guarantee you that the libtards on this forum will NOT be as quick to praise Trump for this "good" number as they were back in the end of April to pounce on Trump for Q1's "bad" number. --- They will wait for their instructions from the media about it, and then they will find a way to poo poo on this 3% result as "not good enough" (they will also keep bringing up the Q1 result).

IN CONCLUSION: --- For predicting the final Q2 number three whole months in advance, I think I did pretty well.

 

[gfm7175]

Q1's topline GDP number was falsely low (a "mirage", as libtards will now refer to the Q2 topline result) because of the atypical spike in imports due to companies taking immediate action before the additional tariffs came through (and, in the long-term, gearing up to shift their "USA market" production into the USA). That caused the topline GDP number to be a handful of points lower than it would have been without the sharp spike in imports. At this point, it was entirely predictable that Q2 would be an "inverse" of Q1 and that the Q2 GDP would be much higher than it was for Q1.

A deeper look into the Q2 data shows that imports (expectedly) were the inverse of Q1. Investments did a similar thing too. It turned out as expected for an economy that is growing and gearing up to produce much more "USA market" items within the USA itself.

Continuing onward, into Q3, what is to be expected now is for the import portion of the GDP to return to a more "even" level (instead of a huge upward spike or a huge downward crater) and for the investment portion (specifically the fixed asset category) to increase to the point that "investments" should become a bit positive again. Investments are also lower than they "could be" atm due to the FED refusing to lower interest rates due to their TDS. Consumer spending should either hold steady or slightly increase.

Walter's favorite "Atlanta Fed" (GDP Now) forecast is currently estimating a 2.3% GDP for Q3. I think that this is, once again, a bit low. I would expect the Q3 GDP to be roughly the same 3% that it was this quarter (+- 0.5%). I would lean towards it being a bit above 3% rather than it being a bit below 3%, but in any event, the GDP will remain a so-called "good" number (it will definitely not fall below 2%, let alone return to Q1's sub-0%).

My prediction for Q3 GDP is 3.5% (roughly 3% +- 0.5%, leaning towards upper rather than lower).

 

[gfm7175]

BTW, the Q2 GDP figure has now been revised upward, AGAIN, to 3.8% ... maybe my 4%+ guess wasn't as far off as I originally thought it was .....

I might have to revise my Q3 guess upward from 3.5% to 4.5%...

 

[gfm7175]

Today was supposed to be the "gfm7175 was proven right once again" day, but that's been delayed due to the Democrats taking US citizens hostage in an attempt to force Republicans to agree to fleece those very same US citizens in order to fund healthcare for illegal alien invaders.

Anyway, as of October 27th (3 days ago), Walter's favorite "Atlanta Fed" model was predicting a 3.9% topline GDP figure. I still maintain from my post last month that I should probably revise my Q3 guess upward from 3.5% to 4.5%, especially since "the experts" always seem to "miss low" when it comes to Republican governance.

@Walt I thought that the GDP was supposed to be decreasing under Trump, not increasing? Your thoughts?

 

[gfm7175]

Walter's favorite "Atlanta Fed" (GDP Now) forecast is currently estimating a 2.3% GDP for Q3. I think that this is, once again, a bit low. I would expect the Q3 GDP to be roughly the same 3% that it was this quarter (+- 0.5%). I would lean towards it being a bit above 3% rather than it being a bit below 3%, but in any event, the GDP will remain a so-called "good" number (it will definitely not fall below 2%, let alone return to Q1's sub-0%).

My prediction for Q3 GDP is 3.5% (roughly 3% +- 0.5%, leaning towards upper rather than lower).

My favorite part about this is the fact that this is a three month old post of mine and, three months later, the Atlanta Fed has revised their estimate upward from 2.3% three months ago to 3.9% currently, whereas I had predicted 3.5% THREE WHOLE MONTHS AGO.

Today, I would revise my estimate upward from 3.5% to above 4%... probably 4.5%

 

[gfm7175]

My favorite part about this is the fact that this is a three month old post of mine and, three months later, the Atlanta Fed has revised their estimate upward from 2.3% three months ago to 3.9% currently, whereas I had predicted 3.5% THREE WHOLE MONTHS AGO.

Today, I would revise my estimate upward from 3.5% to above 4%... probably 4.5%

So, almost TWO whole months ago, I made this aforementioned revision to my initial guess for the Q3 topline GDP number. It turns out that, ONCE AGAIN, I was correct. Like President Trump, I just never get sick of winning.

Gross Domestic Product, 3rd Quarter 2025 (Initial Estimate) and Corporate Profits (Preliminary) | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 4.3 percent in the third quarter of 2025 (July, August, and September), according to the initial estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 3.8 percent.Due to the recent...

www.bea.gov

What say you, @Walt ??

 

[Walt]

What say you, @Walt ??

The data collection is so bad that the estimates might well be very off. We will see.

It is telling that trump is desperately trying to make the economy Biden's fault. If the economy was about to be doing great, you would think he would want to hide Biden from the conversation, and make it all about himself.

My guess, and we are all just guessing because trump has us flying blind, is that there are "two economies" going in two directions. Speculating on AI is driving up one economy quickly, while the other economy is stagnant at best. The second economy is the one where people are not buying many toys this year, because they are scared.

For the record, when I say there are "two economies" I mean that figuratively.

 

[gfm7175]

The data collection is so bad that the estimates might well be very off. We will see.

Ahhhhh, so now "the data collection is bad" Gotcha.....

But actually, I DO agree with you to an extent. I wouldn't be surprised if this number gets revised UPWARD.

It is telling that trump is desperately trying to make the economy Biden's fault.

Oh no no no... you don't get it. Trump is only blaming the Autopen Regime for the things that the Autopen Regime is responsible for (e.g. the "Inflation Production Act" that caused massive jumps in prices across the board).

Trump has been spending all of 2025 oiling/prepping the economy's machinery for a MASSIVE 2026. You ain't seen NOTHIN' yet! The rust from the Autopen Regime has been getting treated all year long and now 2026 is primed for GREATNESS.

If the economy was about to be doing great,

It IS about to be doing great. In fact, it's already made significant strides towards greatness.

you would think he would want to hide Biden from the conversation, and make it all about himself.

Too many people have very short memories, so he needs to constantly remind them of what the economy was like under the Autopen Regime (and the extent of what he is currently fixing). Once the economic machinery gets churning full speed in 2026, and people start to notice that they, once again, are much better off right now under Trump 2.0 (like they were during Trump 1.0) than they were under the Autopen Regime, then the Autopen Regime will be an afterthought and Trump will gladly take credit for his 2026 economic BOOM.

Democrats will curse the day that they ever brought up the word "affordability" in their attempt to attack President Trump (pretending that THEY could "do something about it" even though THEY just got done spending four years CAUSING the issue).

My guess, and we are all just guessing because trump has us flying blind, is that there are "two economies" going in two directions. Speculating on AI is driving up one economy quickly, while the other economy is stagnant at best.

There is only one economy.

The second economy is the one where people are not buying many toys this year, because they are scared.

Consumer spending is UP, Wally...

For the record, when I say there are "two economies" I mean that figuratively.

What you say makes no sense, and I mean that literally.

 

[Walt]

Trump has been spending all of 2025 oiling/prepping the economy's machinery for a MASSIVE 2026.

We are going to see if 2026 is a great year or not.

What you say makes no sense, and I mean that literally.

"It was the best of times, it was the worst of times." So when someone says there are two economies, they mean that some parts of the economy are doing OK, and other parts are not doing OK. It is not uncommon for the economy to divide like that.