RCP Electoral Map: Romney 206 Obama 201

I think their exercise of editorial judgment in deciding which states are "toss up" are a bit off. I'd comfortably put VA and FL in the lean Romney camp and PA, MI,WI and NV in the lean Obama camp. Those are subject to change, obviously, but Romney hasn't led a poll in PA ever. Same with Nevada. Same with Michigan. Same with Wisconsin. Obama hasn't polled that well in Florida or Virginia recently.
 
General Buck Turgidson said:
I think their exercise of editorial judgment in deciding which states are "toss up" are a bit off. I'd comfortably put VA and FL in the lean Romney camp and PA, MI,WI and NV in the lean Obama camp. Those are subject to change, obviously, but Romney hasn't led a poll in PA ever. Same with Nevada. Same with Michigan. Same with Wisconsin. Obama hasn't polled that well in Florida or Virginia recently.
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Obama is in Iowa and New Hampshire right now. He was not planning on being there. He has effectively pulled out of Virginia and NC. Obama has not gone to North Carolina since the D&C convention.
 
FactsRStubborn said:
Obama is in Iowa and New Hampshire right now. He was not planning on being there. He has effectively pulled out of Virginia and NC. Obama has not gone to North Carolina since the D&C convention.
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That's why New Hampshire and Iowa are still toss ups and I'd put Virginia in the likely Romney column (NC is already there).
 
Like Like said:
When they eliminate toss-ups it's 294-244, Obama.
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Their no toss ups maps is . . . weird. It gives Virginia to Obama. That ain't likely to happen. The toss ups I see are Iowa, New Hampshire, Colorado Ohio and Arizona (hardly, though - I think it's probably a lean Romney).
 
While Obama is likely to win some, all toss-up states are trending toward Romney at this time. I can see a scenario where Romney wins by 50-60 electoral votes, which will be a pretty significant 'landslide' given how close this race has been. Mind you, this isn't a 'prediction' just an observation. This thing isn't over by a LONG shot, and "certain victory" by Obama is completely off the table now.
 
christiefan915 said:
FiveThirtyEight

Electoral vote: Obama - 287.2 Romney - 250.8

Chance of winning: Obama - 65.7% Romney - 34.3%

Popular vote: Obama - 50.1% Romney - 48.9%


http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/
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So according to this it's still a blow-out. Funny how Romney can be up 7% nationally in one poll and then getting smoked in the electoral college in another.

I think I'll stick with Grind's assesment that it will be a close and exciting day on Nov. 7th.
 
Dixie said:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html

This old broad has been shoved in our faces for the past three months by the liberals, but I bet they won't be calling our attention to it anymore. Romney now leads in RCP's Electoral College vote count for the first time during the campaign.

I guess Biden didn't really "win" his debate, huh?
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I usualy refer to fivethirtyeight. For one thing, RCP exludes "tossups". Pennsylvania and Michigan, my friend, are not tossups...
 
General Buck Turgidson said:
Their no toss ups maps is . . . weird. It gives Virginia to Obama. That ain't likely to happen. The toss ups I see are Iowa, New Hampshire, Colorado Ohio and Arizona (hardly, though - I think it's probably a lean Romney).
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Virginia isn't really any more likely to go to Romney than Colorado. Virginia is honestly very likely to go Obama. Arizona is waaayyyy stronger for Romney than Virginia is.
 
Too funny! The Liberals, who have been consistently touting the RCP poll and posting the Electoral College map all over their Facebook pages, and breathlessly telling us there is no possible path to victory for Romney, are now running away from this source, and clinging to A NY Times Blog poll instead.

Speaks VOLUMES!
 
Fluttershy said:
Virginia isn't really any more likely to go to Romney than Colorado. Virginia is honestly very likely to go Obama. Arizona is waaayyyy stronger for Romney than Virginia is.
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Looking at it again, AZ is a lean Romney. So is Virginia. I'm skeptical of CO. I still think it's a toss up.

In the end, I think Romney has to win Ohio to win while Obama could win without it. That's what it's likely going to come down to.
 
cawacko said:
So according to this it's still a blow-out. Funny how Romney can be up 7% nationally in one poll and then getting smoked in the electoral college in another.

I think I'll stick with Grind's assesment that it will be a close and exciting day on Nov. 7th.
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I don't know one way or the other, but felt obligated to present another viewpoint. :D
 
General Buck Turgidson said:
Their no toss ups maps is . . . weird. It gives Virginia to Obama. That ain't likely to happen. The toss ups I see are Iowa, New Hampshire, Colorado Ohio and Arizona (hardly, though - I think it's probably a lean Romney).
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instad of arizona i think you mean nevada. I think arizona has been solidly obama for quite some time.
 
General Buck Turgidson said:
Looking at it again, AZ is a lean Romney. So is Virginia. I'm skeptical of CO. I still think it's a toss up.

In the end, I think Romney has to win Ohio to win while Obama could win without it. That's what it's likely going to come down to.
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assuming romney wins florida/virgina/colorado:

if romney loses ohio he must:

win nevada/new hampshire/iowa (all very close)

or win wisconsin (only down 2%) + any 1 of the 3 I just mentioned
 
Dixie said:
Too funny! The Liberals, who have been consistently touting the RCP poll and posting the Electoral College map all over their Facebook pages, and breathlessly telling us there is no possible path to victory for Romney, are now running away from this source, and clinging to A NY Times Blog poll instead.

Speaks VOLUMES!
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<yawn> RCP is calling PA a toss-up, now that's what's too funny.
 
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