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Mott the Hoople

Mott the Hoople

Sweet Jane
Not looking good for Mitt. Hell Ohio and Nevada shouldn't even be in the toss up column. The margin of error of these polls are around +/- 3%. That really puts Obama around 271 to 191 with 76 toss ups and of the toss up states left Obama leads in 5 of the 6 states with polls at 3% or under. Something dramatic will have to happen between now and November or Mitt is going to lose. If the vote were today Obama would win with around 285 to 330 electoral votes.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html
 
I agree its not looking good for Mitt... but I try to wait until after the conventions to take much hart in polling data.
 
Jarod said:
I agree its not looking good for Mitt... but I try to wait until after the conventions to take much hart in polling data.
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I don't think conventions will mean squat. Mitts naming of a running mate could have an impact. What if he selected Collin Powell? That would attract a lot of independents and moderates in the key swing states. It's also possible that Obama could make some sort of gaf during their debates. Essentially I think there will have to be some sort of dramatic economic crises in the swing states between now and November for Mitt to get elected.

I don't think Mitt can win here in Ohio. He's got a number of factors going against him. The Ohio economy has rebounded well from the recession and has an unemployment rate lower than the national average. Obama's support of the GM/Chrysler bailout has had a significant positive impact for Obama, then the political stink earlier this year about mandating converage of birth control in the ACA alienated a lot of women who would normally vote Republican but the best thing Obama has going for him in Ohio is a very unpopular Republican Governor.

That's why I think Rob Portman will win the Veeps sweepstakes. He's competent, qualified for the top job and bland as dry toast and could make a difference in Ohio.
 
Mott the Hoople said:
I don't think conventions will mean squat. Mitts naming of a running mate could have an impact. What if he selected Collin Powell? That would attract a lot of independents and moderates in the key swing states. It's also possible that Obama could make some sort of gaf during their debates. Essentially I think there will have to be some sort of dramatic economic crises in the swing states between now and November for Mitt to get elected.

I don't think Mitt can win here in Ohio. He's got a number of factors going against him. The Ohio economy has rebounded well from the recession and has an unemployment rate is lower than the national average. Obama's support of the GM/Chrysler bailout has had a significant positive impact for Obama, then the political stink earlier this year about mandating converage of birth control in the ACA alienated a lot of women who would normally vote Republicant but the best thing Obama has going for him in Ohio is a very unpopular republican Governor.

That's why I think Rob Portman will win the Veeps sweepstakes. He's competent, qualified for the top job and bland as dry toast and could make a difference in Ohio.
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The Euro crisis is primed and just about ready to go off around the time of the elections.
 
better not count your chickens yet, boys......New Mexico, even the PPP Democratic polling agency shows Obama only up by 5 points....in Oregon Obama's lead as reported by Survey USA dropped from 11% to 4%.....PPP shows him down from 12% to 8%......shucks, campaigning doesn't even start until after the conventions.....

besides, we have our own personal bellweather......if Mott says something is going to happen it's almost guaranteed to go the opposite way.....
 
Mott the Hoople said:
I don't think conventions will mean squat. Mitts naming of a running mate could have an impact. What if he selected Collin Powell? That would attract a lot of independents and moderates in the key swing states. It's also possible that Obama could make some sort of gaf during their debates. Essentially I think there will have to be some sort of dramatic economic crises in the swing states between now and November for Mitt to get elected.

I don't think Mitt can win here in Ohio. He's got a number of factors going against him. The Ohio economy has rebounded well from the recession and has an unemployment rate lower than the national average. Obama's support of the GM/Chrysler bailout has had a significant positive impact for Obama, then the political stink earlier this year about mandating converage of birth control in the ACA alienated a lot of women who would normally vote Republican but the best thing Obama has going for him in Ohio is a very unpopular Republican Governor.

That's why I think Rob Portman will win the Veeps sweepstakes. He's competent, qualified for the top job and bland as dry toast and could make a difference in Ohio.
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Im not so sure Powell would accept. That being said, it seems its the President's to lose, at this point. You never know what kind of game changer could happen in the next 100 days.
 
PostmodernProphet said:
better not count your chickens yet, boys......New Mexico, even the PPP Democratic polling agency shows Obama only up by 5 points....in Oregon Obama's lead as reported by Survey USA dropped from 11% to 4%.....PPP shows him down from 12% to 8%......shucks, campaigning doesn't even start until after the conventions.....

besides, we have our own personal bellweather......if Mott says something is going to happen it's almost guaranteed to go the opposite way.....
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I always use Dixie as our own personal bellweather... But he wont predict yet.
 
Jarod said:
Im not so sure Powell would accept. That being said, it seems its the President's to lose, at this point. You never know what kind of game changer could happen in the next 100 days.
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I doubt he would to and it's still going to be a horse race. If Obama gets complacent he damned well can lose.
 
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Jarod said:
I always use Dixie as our own personal bellweather... But he wont predict yet.
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It doesn't matter. It's going to be a comparatively close race but....if you're going to compete in a tight race, it's better to lead from the front. LOL

It is interesting that when you look at other bellweather data Obama should be in far greater trouble than he is and should actually be trailing his opponent, which he is not.

The onlly prediction I'm making right now is that I think Mitt is going to pick Portman for his Veep.
 
Powell is the only one I can think of that would be a game changer...

But Im not so sure it would make the difference, its still VP. Plus Powell is very socially liberal, his stance on abortion and gay marriage may get some social conservatives to be very upset at Mitt.
 
Mott the Hoople said:
It doesn't matter. It's going to be a comparatively close race but....if you're going to compete in a tight race, it's better to lead from the front. LOL

It is interesting that when you look at other bellweather data Obama should be in far greater trouble than he is and should actually be trailing his opponent, which he is not.

The onlly prediction I'm making right now is that I think Mitt is going to pick Portman for his Veep.
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Mitt's not the maverick that McCain is, so you are prob correct. Portman is the safe bet, though I think the WH is salavating at the hope it will be Rubio.
 
Mott the Hoople said:
Wouldn't it be ironic if he did and the Republican ticket won?
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They would be 1000x's better than Bush-Cheney and in an ironic way may do more to move this nation forward than =if the President wins, because the Republican party, once it takes a reluctant step forward does not usually back up.
 
Jarod said:
They would be 1000x's better than Bush-Cheney and in an ironic way may do more to move this nation forward than =if the President wins, because the Republican party, once it takes a reluctant step forward does not usually back up.
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Till they step on their own dicks.
 
Yurt said:
i think it would be great, powell would make a good president.
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Powell would not be president, he would be vp.

I do like Powell's politics, and I know a lot of people who know him and say he is a great person.
 
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