Study suggests "shy voters" not reflecting true intent in polling

Flash said:
Couldn't that have been because of lower turnout among Democrats (compared to 2012) than to people lying to pollsters?

Many of those states were withing the 3% margin of error, so that does not really indicate lying but fairly accurate poll results.
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Who had MI going to Trump ?
Who had Trump at 300+ EC ?
Its actually quite astute, people say what you want to hear when there is retaliation involved.
Dont see many Trump bumperstickers for the same reason.
 
Celticguy said:
Who had MI going to Trump ?
Who had Trump at 300+ EC ?
Its actually quite astute, people say what you want to hear when there is retaliation involved.
Dont see many Trump bumperstickers for the same reason.
Click to expand...

Not too many lied in 2016 since the final popular vote poll results were almost identical to the actual outcome. Hillary Clinton by 2%. National popular vote polls are not trying to predict electoral college results. Those pundits that used poll results to predict the electoral college

Trafalgar Group had Trump +2% in Michigan in 2016. I have seen many Trump yard signs but no Biden signs but I live in a red county.
 
Celticguy said:
Who had MI going to Trump ?
Who had Trump at 300+ EC ?
Its actually quite astute, people say what you want to hear when there is retaliation involved.
Dont see many Trump bumperstickers for the same reason.
Click to expand...

Trump won states by extremely close margins. This was an extremely close race that can be attributed to Putin and his hackers. It does not require swaying very many votes to get Trump the Unqualified in office. The polls were quite accurate in the votes, but who thought Trump would win every close race. Maybe Putin did, but Trump got lucky.
 
There's a bigger problem with polling now that hasn't really been fixed. As land lines for phones disappear, polling is turning to cell phones and such. The problem with these is that the person using one may not reside anywhere near the area code of the phone. For example, you live in New York and have a New York area code. You move to Texas and keep your current phone and phone number. The polling company will put you down as a New York voter when you are voting in Texas now.

Zip codes are much the same way. If you change where you live, even within a state, you can be switching congressional districts and other down-ticket voting when you do. As mobile as the US population is, this creates all sorts of problems trying to determine if the sampling is accurate and creates larger ranges of variation in the data making the polls less accurate.
 
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