Surprise, Surprise: Oil Prices Climb Day After Election, Coincidence???

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Prakosh

Senior Member
While this increase on the day after the election is troubling and follows the trend that I suggested it would take when gas prices started falling precipitously immediately before the election season, the suggestion that the OPEC nations (read Saudis), as others in more important positions than myself, had increased production in order to bring prices down in order to give Bush good news before the election is here only obliquely hinted at:

"The next move in the oil market depends on winter season weather, on how cold it gets," Shum said. "And also on indications of the extent of output cuts from OPEC."

And of course, Bush repeatedly during the run-up to the biggest defeat he has yet experienced stressed the falling oil prices as if he had something to do with the reduced oil prices. Prices which, as they climbed above $3 a gallon, he claimed he could do absolutely nothing about. I guess now that prices are rising he will again fall back on that old saw. And that too was predicted by me on this very board when I twice posted that the lowered oil prices were nothing but a Bush engineered pre-election stunt and that immediately after the election prices would start going back up.

Election Over. Gas Price Climbing. What a Coinky-Dink!

Oil Prices Climb Above $60 a Barrel

By GEORGE JAHN, Associated Press Writer 34 minutes ago

VIENNA, Austria - Oil prices rose above $60 a barrel Thursday in reaction to figures showing lower U.S. gasoline and diesel fuel inventories and to leadership changes in the U.S. Congress following midterm elections.

While prices were holding in the $58-$60 a barrel range for now, they were expected to rise as the Northern Hemisphere winter season cranks up demands on heating fuel.

Light, sweet crude for December delivery rose 40 cents to $60.23 a barrel by midday in Europe in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. December Brent crude on London's ICE Futures exchange was up 73 cents at $60.32 a barrel.

...

Heating oil futures rose 1.66 cents to $1.7272 a gallon on the Nymex, unleaded gasoline futures were essentially steady at $1.5640 a gallon, and natural gas futures gained 10.7 cents, selling for $7.930 per 1,000 cubic feet.

...

OPEC President Edmund Daukoru, also Nigeria's oil minister, said this week that low prices may encourage the oil cartel to further cut its output, but it doesn't have a specific price floor or band that it wants to defend. The group would discuss production at a December meeting in Abuja.

Oil prices have tumbled from a July high above $78 a barrel, trading in a range of around $57-$61 a barrel over the past month.

:cool:

I Told You This Would Happen
 
I must confess, that I thought it would at least be a week or 10 day lull sothat they wouldn't look too transparent, but evidently they thought the Rumsfeld flap would give them cover. Or, they decided that time was money and there was not a day to waste.
 
Prakosh said:
I must confess, that I thought it would at least be a week or 10 day lull sothat they wouldn't look too transparent, but evidently they thought the Rumsfeld flap would give them cover. Or, they decided that time was money and there was not a day to waste.
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Or they aren't actually doing anything and it was just a fluctuation...

It is more fun to get on the tinfoil, though!
 
Funny how Bush wanted to take credit for the fluctuation that preceded the election and brough prices down by roughly 25% in three months. And then as the fluctuation continues the prices begin to climb the day after the election, but fluctuations are always driven by political events and political personalities aren't they? Oh, yeah, I keep forgetting oil is just different than any other commodity isn't it; that is why the oil companies get all these special tax breaks and tax incentives and other kinds of special government programs that would be classified as welfare if the money wasn't going to multi-millionaires and billionaires. But to even begin to mention all this is to put on a tin-foil hat. I guess oil prices just naturally rise on the day after an election; it is organic and historical...man and his machination have nothing whatsoever to do with it. Water, earth, sun and fertilizer--the price will grow.
 
I don't remember anybody taking credit for the lower prices. But heck, put on some more tin foil... They said that in the previous election and the prices didn't drop for the election, they said it in the one before supposedly to help out Gore back then.... Let's keep it going, we can make it a tradition!

It's not like next year, during the fall when people aren't taking so many road trips and the prices fall, people will assume it is to help Bush. No, we just ignore that this pattern happens on years that there is no election and just pretend that only election years is the time such a fluctuation happens.

Then we can pretend that the prices never in any year but election years go back up again when heating oil in the east is widely used...

We can pretend all that, or we can look at those off years and see that this pattern happens regardless of election and who is in office. Sometimes the dip is less, like the last Presidential election, sometimes more, like this one but inevitably the pattern is the same.

But, like I said, it is always more fun to get out the tin foil!
 
uscitizen said:
But it is not tinfoil hat time when any possibility of a conspiracy is dismissed out of hand ?
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When have I done that? I presented an option to the tinfoil. Then I gave reasons and a way to look and see whether it is a regular fluctuation pattern or not....

There is nothing "out of hand" about careful consideration.
 
I can't take a one-day fluctuation as strong evidence of a conspiracy.

I also have to factor in that price increases are generally inevitable in the fall, as refiners convert over to home-heating fuel, and to winter-blends of gasoline after the summer driving season.

I don't discount that market manipulation happens, I just need more evidence.
 
Damocles said:
I don't remember anybody taking credit for the lower prices.
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Bush did in every campaign speech he made this season. Over and over again he said the economy was doing good and gas prices were falling under his stewardship. I guess you missed it. What will all that Kerry flap and all.

Damocles said:
But heck, put on some more tin foil... They said that in the previous election and the prices didn't drop for the election, they said it in the one before supposedly to help out Gore back then.... Let's keep it going, we can make it a tradition!

It's not like next year, during the fall when people aren't taking so many road trips and the prices fall, people will assume it is to help Bush. No, we just ignore that this pattern happens on years that there is no election and just pretend that only election years is the time such a fluctuation happens.
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Aren't these two paragraphs in direct contraction with each other. If gases prices come down every fall because we are driving less in the fall and if (and I think they do) all national elections take place in the fall, say the first Tuesday in November, wouldn't gas prices always fall during all election campaigns??? But since when did Fall end the Wednesday after election day and since when did people suddenly start driving more on that very day; you know, taking road trips and such.

Damocles said:
Then we can pretend that the prices never in any year but election years go back up again when heating oil in the east is widely used...

We can pretend all that, or we can look at those off years and see that this pattern happens regardless of election and who is in office. Sometimes the dip is less, like the last Presidential election, sometimes more, like this one but inevitably the pattern is the same.
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Why do you begin this paragraph talking about "those off years" and then go back in the second sentence to "the last Presidential election"! Aren't you disappointing the readers expectations here??? Shouldn't you, for the sake of continuity and compositional integrity, give more evidence to support the opening sentence???

Damocles said:
But, like I said, it is always more fun to get out the tin foil!
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So there is always a jump right after election day...no matter what?

Care to support all of this speculation!!! More or less!!!!
 
I guess many of us tin foil hat types can better predict the oil price than the oil investors can :)
Lots of people called this one, if it is one....Just seems wrong to totally dismiss the fluctuation in oil prices as in any way being linked to politics ;)
 
Prakosh said:
Bush did in every campaign speech he made this season. Over and over again he said the economy was doing good and gas prices were falling under his stewardship. I guess you missed it. What will all that Kerry flap and all.



Aren't these two paragraphs in direct contraction with each other. If gases prices come down every fall because we are driving less in the fall and if (and I think they do) all national elections take place in the fall, say the first Tuesday in November, wouldn't gas prices always fall during all election campaigns??? But since when did Fall end the Wednesday after election day and since when did people suddenly start driving more on that very day; you know, taking road trips and such.



Why do you begin this paragraph talking about "those off years" and then go back in the second sentence to "the last Presidential election"! Aren't you disappointing the readers expectations here??? Shouldn't you, for the sake of continuity and compositional integrity, give more evidence to support the opening sentence???



So there is always a jump right after election day...no matter what?

Care to support all of this speculation!!! More or less!!!!
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No, they don't. They fell, just not enough to merit the conspiracy theory. You keep pretending like this is some sort of shocker. Converting the refineries for new types of refining costs money, prices always rise at this time of the year. Amazingly... I managed gas stations after I got out of the military for about 6 years, patterns are easy to determine.

Pretending that you have never before seen this, and conveniently forgetting the Rs complaining about the same thing with Gore and Clinton is pretense.
 
uscitizen said:
I guess many of us tin foil hat types can better predict the oil price than the oil investors can :)
Lots of people called this one, if it is one....Just seems wrong to totally dismiss the fluctuation in oil prices as in any way being linked to politics ;)
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Like I said, I haven't dismissed anything. Only gave another option, with reasons behind it. Saying it was "out of hand" was an unfair characterization. Nor have I actually dismissed it. I said that "maybe" there was another option.
 
An even bigger Coinky-Dink would be the shitbricks still assuming invasion for oil, that's not a conspiracy, that's complete idiocy!
 
Yeah why would Bush say last week it is over oil anyway, I think he said that the same Day he said rummie was going no where.
Howya doin Evil ? Long time no insults ;)
 
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uscitizen said:
Yeah why would Bush say last week it is over oil anyway, I think he said that the same Day he said rummie was going no where.
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I'm certain that was all a lie! Tell me, what advantage has it brought thus far?

How hangs it pops?
 
It has brought no advantage in any direction I can see Evil.

It is hangin ok, a few weeks away from being divorced ( a very good thing), and life is good.
 
uscitizen said:
Yeah why would Bush say last week it is over oil anyway, I think he said that the same Day he said rummie was going no where.
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The President said WHAT was about oil? And the context of Sec. Rumsfeld 'not going anywhere' means "I'm not going to fire him.".
 
uscitizen said:
It has brought no advantage in any direction I can see Evil.

It is hangin ok, a few weeks away from being divorced ( a very good thing), and life is good.
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:D

The best way to be hanging than sir!

Precisely my point, dammit if we are invading for oil lets do that very thing and take advantage of it sometime within this decade!
 
dmp said:
The President said WHAT was about oil? And the context of Sec. Rumsfeld 'not going anywhere' means "I'm not going to fire him.".
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Oh he rambled on about if we left Iraq it would endanger our oil supply....
Of course it was not in danger before we invaded, wha happened ?
 
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