Texas is now a toss up state

IBDaMann said:
... as it absorbs all the liberals fleeing California who aren't totally Marxist.
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Sane people know that's only a small part of it...most are workers and employers. The Marxists stay in California...or, at least, outside of Texas.

The major demographic is Hispanic. Not illegals as the RWNJs would have everyone believe, but because Hispanics are the perfect Conservatives: Hard working, religious and family oriented. Unlike 21st Century Euro-Americans, the majority of Hispanics go to church and take care of their families. No family member is left to flail on their own. The Republican party was told this in the 2012 GOP's Growth and Opportunity Project but the growing racist element inside the Republican party quickly blew it off. Flash forward and here we are; Hispanics bringing conservative family views to the Democrats. Should be interesting about 20 years from now.
 
Dutch Uncle said:
Sane people know that's only a small part of it...most are workers and employers. The Marxists stay in California...or, at least, outside of Texas.

The major demographic is Hispanic. Not illegals as the RWNJs would have everyone believe, but because Hispanics are the perfect Conservatives: Hard working, religious and family oriented. Unlike 21st Century Euro-Americans, the majority of Hispanics go to church and take care of their families. No family member is left to flail on their own. The Republican party was told this in the 2012 GOP's Growth and Opportunity Project but the growing racist element inside the Republican party quickly blew it off. Flash forward and here we are; Hispanics bringing conservative family views to the Democrats. Should be interesting about 20 years from now.
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This is a myth. Religious non-affiliation among Hispanics has more than doubled, and is mostly in line with the rest of the American population (and perhaps more irreligious). More than 2/3rds think the government should do far more to reduce the gap between the rich and the poor, and less than 1/3rd rank abortion highly among their top 4 issues.

Sounds conservative to you?

And I really think it's demeaning and classless for you to characterize "going to church" as a good thing without bothering to scrutinize such a statement critically.

https://www.prri.org/research/hispanic-values-survey-2013/
When asked to provide top-of-mind associations of the Republican Party and Democratic Party, Hispanics offer significantly more negative comments about the Republican Party than the Democratic Party. Nearly half (48%) of the associations Hispanics volunteered about the Republican Party were negative, about 4-in-10 (42%) were basically descriptive or neutral, and about 1-in-10 (11%) were positive. By contrast, more than one-third (35%) of the associations Hispanics volunteered about the Democratic Party were positive, 42% were basically neutral or descriptive, and 22% were negative.
The Democratic Party has a significant perception advantage over the Republican Party across a range of attributes. For example, 43% of Hispanics say the phrase “cares about people like you” better describes the Democratic Party, compared to 12% who say it better describes the Republican Party. Notably, about 3-in-10 (29%) say the phrase describes neither party, and 13% say it describes both parties.
Less than 3-in-10 (29%) Hispanics report that they feel closer to the Republican Party than they did in the past, while nearly two-thirds (63%) of Hispanics say the same about the Democratic Party.
At this very early stage in the 2014 election cycle, Hispanic likely voters report preferring Democratic congressional candidates to Republican congressional candidates by a 2-to-1 ratio (58% vs. 28%). Among likely Hispanic voters, a majority (54%) say they would be less likely to support a candidate who opposes immigration reform that includes a path to citizenship for immigrants who are currently living in the country illegally. One-in-four (25%) say they would be more likely to vote for such a candidate, and 19% report that the candidate’s views on immigration would make no difference in their vote.
A majority of Hispanics identify as Catholic (53%), one-quarter (25%) identify as Protestant—nearly evenly divided between evangelical Protestant (13%) and mainline Protestant (12%)—and 12% of Hispanics are religiously unaffiliated. Few Hispanics (6%) identify with a non-Christian religion.
When comparing today’s Hispanic adults to their childhood religious affiliations, Catholic affiliation drops by 16 percentage points (from 69% to 53%). Evangelical Protestant affiliation has increased by 6percentage points (from 7% to 13%), while the percentage of those claiming no religious affiliation has increased by 7 percentage points (from 5% to 12%)
...

[FONT=&quot]More than 7-in-10 (72%) Hispanics agree the government should do more to reduce the gap between the rich and the poor, compared to 25% who disagree. Nearly 6-in-10 (57%) Hispanics agree that it is the responsibility of the government to take care of people who cannot take care of themselves, compared to 40% who disagree. However, there are notable concerns among Hispanics about people taking advantage of government benefits. A majority (56%) of Hispanics believe that most people who receive welfare are taking advantage of the system, while 30% think most welfare recipients are genuinely in need of help[/FONT]
 
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gfm7175 said:
:laugh: This won't age well.

Texas is NOT in play... Trump will win it by at least 7 points...
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OK, NOSTRADAMUS! THANKS!

BLAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

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Jerome said:
This is a myth. Religious non-affiliation among Hispanics has more than doubled, and is mostly in line with the rest of the American population (and perhaps more irreligious). More than 2/3rds think the government should do far more to reduce the gap between the rich and the poor, and less than 1/3rd rank abortion highly among their top 4 issues.

Sounds conservative to you?....
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Thanks for the research and sorry if I wasn't clear: If the Republicans don't want to represent Hispanics, then Hispanics will go to the next group that will represent them. Not just Hispanics but any group of like-minded Americans. It could be Right-handed Balding Taxi Drivers USA who, as a group, have to decide which political party would best represent their interests. If their first choice doesn't work, they'll go to their second choice.
 
Althea said:
200,000 kids voted for the first time in Texas. They aren't trump voters.
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Those headlines are (purposely?) misleading... They are comparing RAW 2020 numbers to RAW 2016 numbers, and not accounting for the percentage of the total electorate that "kids" make up...
 
Althea said:
I ask again: How can you be so uninformed? It's been several minutes. Is your Google button broken? MASSIVE youth vote in Texas.
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It is not accurate to compare raw votes without accounting for the percentage of the electorate that those votes are comprising...

This whole "massive youth vote" mantra (it's being said for ALL States btw, not just Texas) is based on poor data analysis due to a lack of mathematical knowledge...


For example, when the NC "young vote" number of 205K was being touted around as "spectacular", it actually wasn't a spectacular number, since that number needed to be ~267K or so to keep pace with 2016's share of the youth vote (defined as 18-24, not 18-29)... so it's even worse after one factors in the fact that the 205K number is adding in 25-29 yr olds instead of sticking with the 18-24 age range...
 
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Althea said:
I ask again: How can you be so uninformed? It's been several minutes. Is your Google button broken? MASSIVE youth vote in Texas.
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He's too far gone. Wait until next week. I'm certain all of us will have a good idea of the voter demographics by Friday, November 6th.....followed a week later by Friday the 13th.

Happy Halloweenie!
 
PostmodernProphet said:
then prove my statement wrong........provide evidence you actually know how the early voters voted.....
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I know you have lied about everything. I know Trump has at best a 2 point led in the reddest of red states. I know you and he are in deep shit.
You also said that Trump has led in every single poll, which of course is another lie.
 
Hello floridafan,

floridafan said:
As the 2020 presidential election draws to a close, Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden has a real chance to turn Texas blue.

The Cook Political Report, one of America’s top elections forecasters, has switched its rating of Texas from “lean Republican” to “toss-up” state with less than one week to go before voting ends.

Cook analyst Amy Walter writes that the movement toward Biden in Texas has been significant enough that it can no longer be considered a safe state for President Donald Trump

“Texas is a state that Biden doesn’t need to win, but it is clear that it’s more competitive than ever,” she writes. “Recent polling in the state — both public and private – shows a 2-4 point race. That’s pretty much in line with the hotly contested 2018 Senate race in the state where Sen. Ted Cruz narrowly defeated Rep. Beto O’Rourke 51 percent to 48 percent.”

Adding to the Trump campaign’s potential anxiety about Texas has been a turnout surge thanks to early and mail-in voting, Walter writes.

“A huge surge in early vote (as of October 26th, almost half of Texas’ registered voters had already cast a ballot) suggests that we could see record turnout in a state that has added many new residents since 2016,” she writes. “That also adds a level of uncertainty to the equation.”

https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/...0-widens-trumps-path-narrows-texas-moves-toss
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Texas turning blue, handing Trump a devastating loss, would restore faith in America.

I'd like to see that.
 
PostmodernProphet said:
prove you know how they voted.....
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You bring up an important point, as a registered Republican does not always translate into a vote for the Republican candidate (and vice versa).

I have a feeling that quite a few registered Dems are going to vote for Trump this time around...
 
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