The global warming emails non-event

FUCK THE POLICE

911 EVERY DAY
http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2009/11/30/the-global-warming-emails-non-event/

The global warming emails non-event


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You’ve probably heard by now that a hacker got into the computer system of some climatologists and grabbed a bunch of files, including private emails, from the scientists. The global warming deniers have been trumpeting these as evidence of purposeful fraud, but in reality they are nothing of the sort. I’ve gotten some emails asking why I haven’t talked about this — some accusing me of being biased — but that’s not the case.
One reason I haven’t talked about it is because I think it’s a non-issue. These files are not evidence of fraud. I am a scientist myself, and I’m familiar with the lingo. When we say we used a "trick" to plot data (as one of the hacked emails says), that doesn’t mean we’re doing something to fool people. It means we used a method that may not be obvious, or a step that does something specific. Plotting data logarithmically instead of linearly is a "trick", and it’s a valid and useful method of displaying data (your senses of sight and hearing are logarithmic, for example, so it’s even a natural way to do things).
A more everyday example: a friend tells you that using two filters when brewing your coffee makes it taste better. When you relay this info to someone else, you might say "Using Alex’s double filter trick makes my coffee yummier." Same thing. It’s not exactly rock-solid evidence of scientific fraud.
The other reason I’ve left this alone is because others are deflating it quite well. My Hive Overmind co-bloggers Chris Mooney and Sheril Kirshenbaum over at The Intersection have done so, twice, in their articles The Climategate Burden of Proof and The Latest on the Swifthack.
And all these released files make no difference anyway. As they so succinctly out it:
Those of us who think this is all smoke and no fire are starting from the following position: There is a massive body of science, tested and retested and ratified by many leading scientific bodies, showing that global warming is real and human caused
In other words, these denialist claims are largely ad hominems, and don’t get to the core of the issue, and that’s the overwhelming amount of data supporting global warming. You need to ask: do these emails and other hacked files change the actual science, the actual conclusions drawn by those scientists?
As far as I can see, the answer is no. What I see are scientists doing science, reacting to vicious personal attacks, and discussing what they are doing in terms scientists always use.
On the other side, I’ll say I have no issue with the actual hacking situation itself; if I felt that the government were hiding some huge scandal with an equally huge impact on everyone on the planet, then the illegal act of hacking into someone’s computer becomes a relatively minor infraction comparatively. If the hacker actually thinks this, that is. I know a lot of the denialists think as they do because of partisan blindness, and not because they have reached their conclusion through the impartial examination of the evidence (an accusation, no doubt, that will be thrown at me in the comments). Without telepathy or a pile of evidence — or even his/her identity — we don’t know the motivations of the hacker. They don’t really matter to me at the moment; the more important aspect of all this is how the files are being twisted politically.
Bottom line? Yawn. Get back to me when you have equally overwhelming evidence that global warming is not happening, or if it is it’s not anthropogenic. Then we can talk.
 
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Global warming emails: followup


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I think a followup on my earlier post on the climatologists’ emails is called for.
The comments in that post have been interesting. Most of them — and there are a lot — completely missed the point I was making, which isn’t terribly surprising. I called this whole thing a non-event because it’s manufactured drama. It is not the smoking gun, it doesn’t discredit climatological research showing the Earth is warming, and it doesn’t show that scientists are some sort of priesthood guarding their domain. As Real Climate points out, it’s not what’s in the files that’s interesting, it’s what’s not in them: nothing about huge conspiracies, nothing about this all being faked. If this is such damning evidence, where’s that evidence?
What these files do show is scientists trying to deal with data, software, and science, all the while also trying to figure out what to do with attacks on their work that are largely ideologically driven. I don’t think they handled that all that well, and that doesn’t surprise me. They’re scientists, not wonks. Of course, if you look at the files from the point of view of giant conspiracies it seems very racy, and clearly a lot of the commenters on my original post feel that way. But to reiterate, this does not call into question the reality of global warming in general.
To further show that, look at some of the things being said. Many people — and some who should really know better — are saying Phil Jones, the head of the group whose files were hacked, has been "fired". That’s simply not true. He has stepped aside, temporarily, while the situation is being investigated. The news reports on this were very clear. So why would someone say he was fired? I submit it’s because they are trying to spin this situation up into more than it is.
Again, as I thought I made clear in the earlier post, the methods being used by the scientists in question don’t look to me like they were faking data. In software it’s common to test out different methods, see what works, and what doesn’t. A piece of software I wrote for working with Hubble data went through hundreds of iterations and edits before going live (and was updated quite a bit after that as well). Software used to analyze data is a little like science itself: it changes as you learn more and find better ways to do things. If you found an early version of my code you might wonder if I was faking the data too! The examples of code in the hacked files may have been early versions, or had some estimations (called, not always accurately, fudge factors) used in place of real numbers… the thing is, we don’t know. Drawing conclusions of widespread scientific fraud from what we’ve seen is ridiculous.
As far as the scientists’ attitudes go, much hay has been made of that as well. But I wonder. Imagine you’ve dedicated your life to some scientific pursuit. You do it because you love it, because you want to make the world a better place, and because you can see the physics beneath the surface, weaving the tapestry of reality, guiding the ebb and flow of forces both subtle and gross. Then you find that people start attacking you with flimsy evidence, politically motivated vitriol, and even elected officials say that what you are doing is a "hoax". How do you react?
The circling of wagons and questions of what to do and how to deal with the situation don’t surprise me at all. And again, without the context of those emails we don’t know what the real story is. You can claim scientific fraud and obstructionism all you want, but you don’t know, and I don’t either. I actually agree that this should be investigated, but I hope they look at all the evidence, and don’t quote mine and cherry pick as so many people have done.
People say I’m biased, which may be a fair cop. I am biased: to reality. If we had real evidence that global warming was not occurring, then I’d pay attention. I’ve looked at the so-called "other side", and found their claims lacking. Science is all about finding supporting and falsifying evidence. When enough data piles up that shows previous thinking is wrong, then scientists change their mind. Look up "dark energy" if you have doubts about that. In this, I am in agreement with the American Meteorological Society, Nature magazine, and Scientific American.
Science is necessarily conservative. Once something is established as being an accepted model/theory/law, then it becomes the standard paradigm until it is shown to be flawed in a significant way. You may not like it, but in modern climatology, global warming is accepted as the standard. It’s not up to me or anyone to prove it right at this point, it’s up to scientists to show it’s wrong. To do that you’ll need a lot of really good evidence, and from what I have seen and read that evidence is not there. Maybe it’s fair to say not yet there, but in reality it may not be there at all.
This has become so politicized it’s hard to know what’s right and what’s wrong. I personally would be thrilled to find out the Earth isn’t warming up. I’d like my daughter to grow up on a planet that isn’t on the fast track to environmental disaster. But I have no stake in the claim scientifically either way; I don’t cling to AGW because of political bent or any ideology. I think global warming is real because of the overwhelming evidence pointing that way.
I’ll note that some people are still upset by my use of the term deniers. Again, to be clear: a skeptic is someone who uses evidence and logic to reach a conclusion. A denialist is someone who will say or do anything to deny an issue. I stand by my definition. There are actual global warming skeptics out there — and I would not only support their efforts but praise them — but what I see on the web and in the comments overwhelmingly is denial, not skepticism.
Joshua Rosenau at Thoughts from Kansas has a lengthy post on these hacked files, which is well worth reading. He is more adamant about the icky nature of the data theft than I am — I do see where it’s wrong, but also understand that motivation is an issue, as I point out in my original post (after all, what one person calls a thieving hacker another would call a whistleblower)– but we largely agree on everything else.
Also, as predicted the comments in my original post accuse me of all sorts of horrid things, which I take in stride. I maintain that the vast majority of what I have seen claimed by the global warming deniers is simply taken out of context. Programmers and scientists complaining about software and data? Quelle horreur! Wow, we never do that.
Pbbbbt.
In conclusion: I called this a non-event because it has no real impact on global warming science or our understanding of it. Of course it has a huge impact, politically. But that’s because the ideologues out there have seized on this and made as much noise as they can, so in that sense it is an issue — an issue of how political science has become, how easy it is to disrupt the process, and the effect this has had on the scientists themselves. This issue won’t go away any time soon, but we need to focus on the signal, not the noise.
 
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Global warming emails: followup


The comments in that post have been interesting. Most of them — and there are a lot — completely missed the point I was making, which isn’t terribly surprising. I called this whole thing a non-event because it’s manufactured drama. It is not the smoking gun, it doesn’t discredit climatological research showing the Earth is warming, and it doesn’t show that scientists are some sort of priesthood guarding their domain. As Real Climate points out, it’s not what’s in the files that’s interesting, it’s what’s not in them: nothing about huge conspiracies, nothing about this all being faked. If this is such damning evidence, where’s that evidence?

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http://www.eastangliaemails.com/emails.php?eid=1051&filename=1255496484.txt

From: Tom Wigley <wigley@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
To: Kevin Trenberth <trenbert@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
Subject: Re: BBC U-turn on climate
Date: Wed, 14 Oct 2009 01:01:24 -0600
Cc: Michael Mann <mann@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Stephen H Schneider <shs@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Myles Allen <allen@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, peter stott <peter.stott@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, "Philip D. Jones" <p.jones@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Benjamin Santer <santer1@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Thomas R Karl <Thomas.R.Karl@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Gavin Schmidt <gschmidt@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, James Hansen <jhansen@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Michael Oppenheimer <omichael@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>


Dear all,

At the risk of overload, here are some notes of mine on the recent
lack of warming. I look at this in two ways. The first is to look at
the difference between the observed and expected anthropogenic trend
relative to the pdf for unforced variability. The second is to remove
ENSO, volcanoes and TSI variations from the observed data.

Both methods show that what we are seeing is not unusual. The second
method leaves a significant warming over the past decade.

These sums complement Kevin's energy work.

Kevin says ... "The fact is that we can't account for the lack of
warming at the moment and it is a travesty that we can't". I do not
agree with this.

Tom.
 
tinfoil
This message is hidden because tinfoil is on your ignore list.

My closest guess to what he said,

"LOL dubm liberals have the wool polled over their eyes! They're blinded by science! LOL"
 
tinfoil
This message is hidden because tinfoil is on your ignore list.

My closest guess to what he said,

"LOL dubm liberals have the wool polled over their eyes! They're blinded by science! LOL"

I think its only fitting that IBstupid be put on EVERYONES ignore list...
 
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