The stock market - a reflection of the overall economy - is insanely good

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BartenderElite

Verified User
It's actually closing in on 43K right now, after going up 400 today.

Conservatives always downplay it when it's up. I think it had a big drop in early August, and Trump & the rest of MAGA made a huge deal about it. For one day. They're all pretty quiet about it now, and if you hear anyone on the right talk about it, they'll try to argue that the market is disassociated from the actual economy.

A little truth on that: it isn't. Investors generally invest when they have confidence in the economy.

Though, I'm sure Trump will say it's going up because investors think he's going to win. Suuuuuuure.
 
BartenderElite said:
It's actually closing in on 43K right now, after going up 400 today.

Conservatives always downplay it when it's up. I think it had a big drop in early August, and Trump & the rest of MAGA made a huge deal about it. For one day. They're all pretty quiet about it now, and if you hear anyone on the right talk about it, they'll try to argue that the market is disassociated from the actual economy.

A little truth on that: it isn't. Investors generally invest when they have confidence in the economy.

Though, I'm sure Trump will say it's going up because investors think he's going to win. Suuuuuuure.
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My opinion is that the market is always in inverse proportion to the street level economy.
 
BartenderElite said:
It's actually closing in on 43K right now, after going up 400 today.

Conservatives always downplay it when it's up. I think it had a big drop in early August, and Trump & the rest of MAGA made a huge deal about it. For one day. They're all pretty quiet about it now, and if you hear anyone on the right talk about it, they'll try to argue that the market is disassociated from the actual economy.

A little truth on that: it isn't. Investors generally invest when they have confidence in the economy.

Though, I'm sure Trump will say it's going up because investors think he's going to win. Suuuuuuure.
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Stock market pretty much reflects nothing about the economy.
 
Hume said:
Stock market pretty much reflects nothing about the economy.
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What do you base that conclusion on?

You think investors would put their money into the market if companies weren't doing well? If they were laying people off in large #'s? If many were unemployed?

They wouldn't. They'd be very bad investors if they did.
 
BartenderElite said:
What do you base that conclusion on?

You think investors would put their money into the market if companies weren't doing well? If they were laying people off in large #'s? If many were unemployed?

They wouldn't. They'd be very bad investors if they did.
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Investors are trying to make money--which they do by betting on failure.
 
BartenderElite said:
What do you base that conclusion on?

You think investors would put their money into the market if companies weren't doing well? If they were laying people off in large #'s? If many were unemployed?

They wouldn't. They'd be very bad investors if they did.
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I wouldn't go as far as Hume, but companies typically increase profits by laying off workers. Trickle down tax policy typically destroys demand, as the consumers don't have the money to purchase goods/services. We probably agree that TD economics is a farce. Demand creates jobs, not tax cuts. So if companies are laying off, they either aren't selling as much, or they're simply demanding more productivity from overworked employees.

Profits go up, with executive pay and dividends.

To put it simply...when the price of oil is artificially inflated by the market, consumers are much worse off, while investors laugh all the way to the bank.

Right now we see record corporate profits due to price gouging. Consumers are struggling.

Inverse proportion. The market is one aspect of the economy for sure, but only looking at that aspect clouds the big picture.

My opinion.
 
BartenderElite said:
They profit in bad times. But that's not the market as a whole.

If the economy was tanking, the stock market would be tanking. There is vast historical precedent for this.
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Again...we have to find a definition for 'the economy'. And 'tanking' is the extreme parameter. The market can drop 1000 points due to a small handful of sectors, and the average consumer wouldn't even know or care.

Consumers were never happier with respect to the cost to heat homes or drive cars, than when oil crashed due to Saudi Arabia's increased output. If a consumer is saving hundreds of dollars/month on fuel, they have more money to spend elsewhere. Those who had fracking startups in their portfolios lost everything.

That certainly didn't touch the vast majority of people in this nation.
 
archives said:
“Bartender” must have forgot, a historical market, even a good market, only counts when Trump is President, his bad
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Personally, I've always winced when Trump bragged about the market.
I personally have no trust in the stock market. The market is bloated. It has been ever since they artificially brought interest rates down to ridiculously low levels for more than a decade now.
 
BartenderElite said:
They profit in bad times. But that's not the market as a whole.

If the economy was tanking, the stock market would be tanking. There is vast historical precedent for this.
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It's the AI sector that's sustaining the market, led by Nvidia and the new Blackwell GPU which retail at 30-50k and companies clamouring to get their hands on them.

Nvidia’s upcoming Blackwell processors have sold out for the next 12 months.

The news was shared in a client note published by Morgan Stanley analyst Joseph Moore after the firm hosted Nvidia’s CEO Jensen Huang and other executives from the company this week

www.datacenterdynamics.com

Nvidia’s Blackwell GPUs sold out for 12 months

Products to start shipping out this quarter
www.datacenterdynamics.com www.datacenterdynamics.com
 
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