"The US economy is undoubtedly in recession,"

uscitizen said:
Sorry spinner, I will take that guys credentials over yours on finiancial matters anyday.
Yeah I have done well on the market too. But it does not accurately refelct the general economy.
People thought things were just hunkeydory right before the great crash as well.
So goes the "baseball card trading industry"
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Well in that case you are a bit foolish. While a recession could still occur, we are without question NOT currently in a recession, so your "guy" is an idiot to claim that we are. A recession is defined by at least three consecutive quarters of NEGATIVE GDP growth. We haven't even had ONE.

Something to consider.

Again, this is not to say that a recession will not occur. I do believe that we are in for a rough 2008 and its quite possible we could fall into a recession, but that is hardly certain and most certainly not the case currently.
 
uscitizen said:
Damo , I am just posting what the "expert" said.
And this expert moving his money from the dollar will have some impact I think.
Did I say we were in a recession ? I have just been saying one is coming pretty soon.
I still say that, and it might become a depression.
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These self proclaimed experts make me laugh. If they are going to completely ignore that one cannot "recede" when one is growing then then said "expert" is a complete moron.

Second note... if he is just now moving out of the dollar then he is an idiot on that point as well. The dollar has been in decline for over a year. He is just now catching on?
 
Superfreak said:
These self proclaimed experts make me laugh. If they are going to completely ignore that one cannot "recede" when one is growing then then said "expert" is a complete moron.

Second note... if he is just now moving out of the dollar then he is an idiot on that point as well. The dollar has been in decline for over a year. He is just now catching on?
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Yo, SF. Do you know how I can make it so my Bank will transfer all my accounts into British Pounds each time I make a deposit?
 
Superfreak said:
These self proclaimed experts make me laugh. If they are going to completely ignore that one cannot "recede" when one is growing then then said "expert" is a complete moron.

Second note... if he is just now moving out of the dollar then he is an idiot on that point as well. The dollar has been in decline for over a year. He is just now catching on?
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Oh well he might just be the leading edge of the pack abandoning the dollar.
and again I did not say we are in a recession, just posting an article from a guy with more money than all but a few have.
I do say the parts are coming into place for a very bad prolonged recession in the near future.
 
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Damocles said:
Yo, SF. Do you know how I can make it so my Bank will transfer all my accounts into British Pounds each time I make a deposit?
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Most of the larger banks should have access to money market funds denominated in pounds. Few will set it up for checking as the constant motion of money will eat away at clients balances due to conversion of currency costs.

I would take a look at the Mark over the pound as Britain is walking a similar tightrope to the US. While the pound should stay strong against the dollar, they may be headed for recession as well given the inversion of their yield curve. The yen is probably a safe bet as well, but should be played more for the appreciation potential against the dollar as interest rates in Japan are still pretty much non-existant. If you have a cash position you are looking to maintain for a while, I would look to Shearson Lehman or Fidelity for money markets denominated in foreign currencies. (obviously be sure to ask about any potential loads on those funds as I do not recall off hand if they have any)

If you are looking to hedge your portfolio against the declining dollar, check out frontier funds... they have a variety of managed future portfolios (one a pure currency play) that may be appropriate. Again, a disclaimer.... due diligence is obviously highly recommended to make sure this type of fund is appropriate for each person's goals and risk tolerances.
 
uscitizen said:
Oh well he might just be the leading edge of the pack abandoning the dollar.
and again I did not say we are in a recession, just posting an article from a guy with more money than all but a few have.
I do say the parts are coming into place for a very bad prolonged recession in the near future.
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Paris Hilton has a lot of money... but she is a friggin moron as well.

Again.... he is most certainly NOT at the "leading edge" of investors leaving the dollar.... or the dollar would not have been in decline for the past year +. Note: To have the dollar decline it means more money is flowing OUT of the dollar than IN. Which means he is behind the curve given that the dollar is currently sitting near 30-40 year lows against other currencies (with the exception of the Euro as it has obviously not been around that long... but still the dollar is near all time lows against the Euro as well)

I also understand that you did not specifically state that we were in a recession. Yet you did post the article of a guy that DID say just that and then proceeded to tell top that you would take the "experts" word for it.
 
"I do say the parts are coming into place for a very bad prolonged recession in the near future."

On this part... you may indeed be correct... how far will the fed go to protect against the housing market spilling over even further? how much fiat currency will be pumped in by the worlds central banks?

No question that more problems loom on the horizon, but I believe the fed is in the "inflate or die" mode and will cut rates and print money as fast as they can to avoid a recession.

The finance sector is most likely going to be very bumpy for the next 12-18 months. The question is.... will it take down the rest of the economy or not? Tech is pushing hard and may offset the financial sector. Transports are doing the same.

Again, you may be right that a recession does indeed occur next year, but lets wait until we at LEAST have ONE quarter of negative growth before we get too worked up about it.
 
One final note of the stupidity of your "experts" statements.... Why exactly is he switching from the dollar to the yuan? As long as the yuan is denominated in dollars this makes little sense. Unless one believes that China will break from the dollar... which would crush their exports, but most assuredly see an increase vs. the dollar.... which do you think the Chinese want?

Hint: Keep in mind the amount of US debt China holds.... and which currency that debt is tied to.
 
i read that yesterday. lol i was always under the belief we needed 2 negative GDP quarters for a recession. Guess im to macro inclined tho.
 
Yeah, but at two you'll at least start to see predictions, but any expert would be smart enough to call it that.
 
Chapdog said:
Definition: A recession is defined to be a period of two quarters of negative GDP growth.
http://economics.about.com/od/economicsglossary/g/recession.htm
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yeah, that is wrong, unless someone changed the definition so that the financial press could freak people out on a more frequent basis. The textbook definition was always three quarters, not two. Which is why they did not declare the recession until March of 2001... after THREE quarters of negative growth.
 
Superfreak said:
yeah, that is wrong, unless someone changed the definition so that the financial press could freak people out on a more frequent basis. The textbook definition was always three quarters, not two. Which is why they did not declare the recession until March of 2001... after THREE quarters of negative growth.
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I was looking it up, two is the "press definition" which economists disagree with. Every class I ever took in economics had it at three quarters.

It doesn't change that this man is retarded and not an "expert" though. There hasn't even been one quarter of negative growth.
 
Superfreak said:
yeah, that is wrong, unless someone changed the definition so that the financial press could freak people out on a more frequent basis. The textbook definition was always three quarters, not two. Which is why they did not declare the recession until March of 2001... after THREE quarters of negative growth.
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maybe it changed. I had always learned 2 quarters. from my finance/econ degree.. to my mba .. to 8years working at fidelity.

like i said. maybe it has since changed.

BTW super - EMC earning beat estimates and announced 2B stock buyback. what does stock buyback usually do for the stock price? usually goes up right?
 
Chapdog said:
maybe it changed. I had always learned 2 quarters. from my finance/econ degree.. to my mba .. to 8years working at fidelity.

like i said. maybe it has since changed.

BTW super - EMC earning beat estimates and announced 2B stock buyback. what does stock buyback usually do for the stock price? usually goes up right?
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If you learned that in an economics class then they have changed the definition. When I took economics it was always three... doesn't really matter though, as Damo said, the guy in the article remains an idiot either way.

As for the stock buyback... it depends on the value the company is paying for the stock. If a company is buying back stock that is undervalued compared to its performance, then it is a good thing. If the company is buying back stock that is over-valued it is a bad thing. I believe EMC is in the former and not the latter. Given what VMW is doing and looks to continue to do, I think the board sees EMC shares well underneath where it should be. I think we will see about $28 to $28.50 by the end of the year and around $35 by the halfway point of 2008. (based on what we know today.... as always, things can change that may cause a need to adjust those numbers)
 
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