The working class is getting royally screwed.

right. so the higher the top value is the higher the median is.

No. That's not how medians work. Here are two very simple arrays to illustrate the point:

1
2
3

and

1
2
999,999,999,999

What is the median of each? The answer is "2" in both cases. The higher top value in the second array doesn't matter. It could be a quadrillion, or infinity, or 2.0000000001 and the median would be exactly the same. All that matters for a median is what the middle number is.

If you have Excel, you can confirm that. Just put a sequential series of numbers into a list from cell A1 to cell A3 and use the formula =median(A1:A3). You'll see it simply doesn't matter what number you put into A3, as long as it's larger than A1 and A2. It cannot change the median, because it isn't the middle number.
 
oligarchs raise the standard deviation, or how spread out the data it.

averages become less representative of concrete reality instances with a more dispersed data set.

If you reread what I wrote, I was clearly referencing median, not averages or standard deviations. The point was to determine how things are going for the middle class, versus 40 years ago, so I used the median income, which is a measure for the income right in the middle. Basically, if you had 160,000,001 families in the US, and you laid them all out from lowest income to highest, it would be family number 80,000,001 -- the one that was richer than 80 million and poorer than 80 million. I similarly used median home prices, rather than average ones, so that things wouldn't be skewed by, say, the rise of super-expensive mega-mansions at the top end.

We're basically just looking at what it would cost a middle-of-the-road family to buy a middle-of-the-road home, in each era. Once you factor in how much less interest they'd end up paying these days on the mortgage, it turns out the modern family would be left with a lot more money, even after adjusting for inflation, after its housing cost, than that family 40 years ago. And that's despite a vast surge in median home sizes, such that the home the modern families are buying is likely a lot bigger than the home a median family was buying 40 years ago.

https://www.aei.org/carpe-diem/toda... the median-size home,1973 to 2,506 last year.
 
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If you reread what I wrote, I was clearly referencing median, not averages or standard deviations. The point was to determine how things are going for the middle class, versus 40 years ago, so I used the median income, which is a measure for the income right in the middle. Basically, if you had 160,000,001 families in the US, and you laid them all out from lowest income to highest, it would be family number 80,000,001 -- the one that was richer than 80 million and poorer than 80 million. I similarly used median home prices, rather than average ones, so that things wouldn't be skewed by, say, the rise of super-expensive mega-mansions at the top end.

We're basically just looking at what it would cost a middle-of-the-road family to buy a middle-of-the-road home, in each era. Once you factor in how much less interest they'd end up paying these days on the mortgage, it turns out the modern family would be left with a lot more money, even after adjusting for inflation, after its housing cost, than that family 40 years ago. And that's despite a vast surge in median home sizes, such that the home the modern families are buying is likely a lot bigger than the home a median family was buying 40 years ago.

https://www.aei.org/carpe-diem/toda... the median-size home,1973 to 2,506 last year.

median is meaningless with a highly dispersed data set.
 
median is meaningless with a highly dispersed data set.

What makes you think that?

Keep in mind that this is the claim I'm addressing:

"Housing and food take a larger percentage of peoples' income today [versus 40 years ago]....."

See post #62.

How would you, personally, check that claim with the data? My approach was to figure out what median families were earning 40 years ago, and what they were paying for median housing housing and for food 40 years ago, and comparing that with median family earning today, and today's median housing cost, and food costs.

What figures would you have used to see if that claim he made was correct, if you believe that "median is meaningless"? Mean? Mode? Weighted averages of some sort? Or would you just take the view that the claim is emotionally satisfying, and so it should not be checked against any historical data to see if it's actually true?
 
What makes you think that?

Keep in mind that this is the claim I'm addressing:

"Housing and food take a larger percentage of peoples' income today [versus 40 years ago]....."

See post #62.

How would you, personally, check that claim with the data? My approach was to figure out what median families were earning 40 years ago, and what they were paying for median housing housing and for food 40 years ago, and comparing that with median family earning today, and today's median housing cost, and food costs.

What figures would you have used to see if that claim he made was correct, if you believe that "median is meaningless"? Mean? Mode? Weighted averages of some sort? Or would you just take the view that the claim is emotionally satisfying, and so it should not be checked against any historical data to see if it's actually true?

median is meaningless as a fascimile for reality in the context of a highly dispersed data set.
 
median is meaningless as a fascimile for reality in the context of a highly dispersed data set.

What makes you think that?

Keep in mind that this is the claim I'm addressing:

"Housing and food take a larger percentage of peoples' income today [versus 40 years ago]....."

See post #62.

How would you, personally, check that claim with the data? My approach was to figure out what median families were earning 40 years ago, and what they were paying for median housing housing and for food 40 years ago, and comparing that with median family earning today, and today's median housing cost, and food costs.

What figures would you have used to see if that claim he made was correct, if you believe that "median is meaningless"? Mean? Mode? Weighted averages of some sort? Or would you just take the view that the claim is emotionally satisfying, and so it should not be checked against any historical data to see if it's actually true?
 
Hello Flash,

A lower level of poverty is better for everybody compared to just reducing poverty. I could have used the example of President B: 15-14-13-12. This is reducing poverty and having a lower poverty level all four years than President A who decreased poverty much more but had more people living under poverty his entire four years.

Lag time.

A president has no control over how many people are living under poverty as he enters office, nor until any of his decisions can have any effect on their lives. Such as waiting for Congress to act and then signing legislation. Thus I do not agree that the number of people in poverty is a good measure of presidential job performance. If it takes a while before new policy affects those numbers, they could end up being different under a subsequent president, but the reduction would be properly credited to the president who executed the policy change.

A president who enters office with a large number in poverty could make good decisions and see those poverty numbers drop precipitously throughout the term of office and continue doing so until another president takes office and changes policy which results in a flattening of the reduction.

Would you prefer living under President A if he was a Republican although he reduced poverty more?

A strange question. My support or lack of support for a politician is irrelevant to this discussion.

If poverty were the only issue and a Republican did a better job then I would support that. But that is not the case. There are many more issues to factor in to a decision of preference for life under one politician or another.

Nobody has ever eliminated poverty because we don't know how.

The last line of the post is key.

It is surrender. It is acceptance of failure, acceptance of belief that the goal is unachievable. On that point, I refuse to accept that. No matter what has been achieved, until the goal of zero poverty is met, there is always room for improvement.
 
Hello Flash,

Lag time.

That same lag time would apply to reductions in poverty; therefore, using reductions would not apply to the first year or two but could be attributed to the previous president.

That is my main point--trying to use these stats to demonstrate which party is "better" is unreliable and subject to too many variables. Using decrease in poverty (and teen birth rate) are different when using the average during each president and the percent of decrease. Then, lag time has not been considered. Then, if a president starts with a high number and it declines to the average level it will give him a large decrease. None of which are attributable to any policies he implemented.
 
If you reread what I wrote, I was clearly referencing median, not averages or standard deviations. The point was to determine how things are going for the middle class, versus 40 years ago, so I used the median income, which is a measure for the income right in the middle. Basically, if you had 160,000,001 families in the US, and you laid them all out from lowest income to highest, it would be family number 80,000,001 -- the one that was richer than 80 million and poorer than 80 million. I similarly used median home prices, rather than average ones, so that things wouldn't be skewed by, say, the rise of super-expensive mega-mansions at the top end.

We're basically just looking at what it would cost a middle-of-the-road family to buy a middle-of-the-road home, in each era. Once you factor in how much less interest they'd end up paying these days on the mortgage, it turns out the modern family would be left with a lot more money, even after adjusting for inflation, after its housing cost, than that family 40 years ago. And that's despite a vast surge in median home sizes, such that the home the modern families are buying is likely a lot bigger than the home a median family was buying 40 years ago.

https://www.aei.org/carpe-diem/toda... the median-size home,1973 to 2,506 last year.

Mina, you can also look at the cost of clothing, food, transportation, etc. Americans spend a lower percentage of their income for all these categories except housing.
 
Mina, you can also look at the cost of clothing, food, transportation, etc. Americans spend a lower percentage of their income for all these categories except housing.

purchasing power is way down though, neocon.

oh look, the globalists agree.....not suprising.
 
Mina, you can also look at the cost of clothing, food, transportation, etc. Americans spend a lower percentage of their income for all these categories except housing.

If we take it as a whole, we already know what it looks like, because the whole "basket of goods" is factored into the inflation calculation. That includes everything people might spend money on, in proportion to actual buying tendencies -- both the stuff that got cheaper and the stuff that got more expensive. Using that data, we know that 40 years ago, a median family was earning enough to buy $60,560 worth of stuff in today's dollars, and that today it's $84,008. Overall, buying power for a median family is 38.7% higher today.

Even that understates things, though, since it doesn't consider what happened to taxes. Although overall tax levels aren't that much lower than they were 40 years ago, things like child tax credits, EITC, and tinkering with the brackets has resulted in taxes for the middle class falling quite a bit more. In 1982, a mid-level household paid 18.1% in federal taxes, total, whereas in recent years it's been more like 12.8%:

https://www.taxpolicycenter.org/statistics/historical-average-federal-tax-rates-all-households

So, that 1982 median family might have had something like $49,599 after federal taxes, versus $73,255 now. So the after-tax buying power is up more like 47.7%. Middle-class people today can buy almost half again what their equivalents could buy 40 years ago.
 
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Mina, you can also look at the cost of clothing, food, transportation, etc. Americans spend a lower percentage of their income for all these categories except housing.

One other interesting point:

Some people argue that inflation is understated, because of the way the "basket of goods" changes over time with substitutions. Like if people used to eat more beef than they do now, then beef is weighted less in the price index today than it was in the past, and so a rising beef price won't drive higher inflation rates as much as it would if the 'basket of goods' had been held constant. But, that cuts both ways.... and arguably cuts harder the other way. The CPI calculation also substitutes vastly superior products today for inferior ones of the past.

Consider a typical car. For inflation calculation purposes, a typical car from 1982 is treated as if it were equivalent to a typical car today, and their prices are compared to see how much costs have gone up. But they're not at all equivalent. Cars today have standard features that were considered luxuries in 1982 (power windows), and luxury features that weren't available at any price in 1982 (GPS).

Even in terms of raw performance, they're vastly different. Like take a 1982 Corvette. It had a 0-60 time of 8.1 seconds:

https://www.corvsport.com/corvette-0-60-mph-times/

You could do better with 2 liter, 4-cylinder Honda Civic today:

https://www.fernandezhonda.com/0-60-2021-honda-civic/

So, if not for substitutions, you'd be comparing today's entry-level economy boxes to high-end sports cars of the early 1980's, and inflation of cars would look much lower.

Or for an even more extreme example, consider electronics. In 1982, 8.4 megabytes of external electronic storage cost $4,495. Currently, at Walmart, you can buy 4TB of external hard drive storage for $89.

https://bramanswanderings.com/2014/09/25/1982-computer-prices/
https://www.walmart.com/browse/electronics/hard-drives-storage/3944_3951_1073804_514537

So, how much would you need to spend at 1982's per-byte rate to get yourself 4TB? It would set you back about $2.1 BILLION. That storage you can get for $89 at Walmart today would have cost you the equivalent of a small nation's GDP in 1982. And yet even that doesn't capture the superiority of today's product, since 4TB of storage in 1982 would have taken acres of servers burning huge amounts of energy and taking minutes to find and retrieve any piece of info, whereas that 4TB drive today is something you can fit in your pocket and power for next to nothing, with near-instant retrieval times. Yet the inflation calculation doesn't factor in how much more expensive such things would have been in the past. It just treats that external hard drive from 1982 as equivalent to the one today, and calculates the deflation on that basis, just as it treats a compact car of 1982 as the equivalent to one today, even though today's is vastly superior.

That applies to housing, too. As already shown above, square footage for modern homes is way up, relative to what they were in 1982. And quality is up generally, with modern homes generally having better insulation, more conveniences, higher-quality fixtures and appointments (e.g., tile in place of vinyl, granite in place of formica), and so on. But the "housing price indices" tend to treat a median home today as if it were identical to a median home in 1982, so that you can just compare their costs to find housing price inflation, rather than comparing a median home today to the higher-end house of 1982 that was roughly equivalent in terms of size and quality.
 
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Bureau of Labor Statistics: Some major categories of consumer spending

Housing: 2020: 34.9% 1985: 30.4%
Transportation: 2020: 16% 1985: 19.6%
Food: 2020: 11.9% 1985: 15.0%
Healthcare: 2020: 8.4% 1985: 4.8%
Apparel & services: 2020: 2.3% 1985: 6.0%

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cesan.pdf

https://www.bls.gov/opub/100-years-of-u-s-consumer-spending.pdf

considering the bifurcation of society, percentages of income spent make little sense.

overall averaging can be manipulated too easily.
 
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