‘There is no Mamdani effect’: Manhattan luxury home sales surge after mayoral election, embarrassing predictions of doom

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We fight, We win, Am Yisrael Chai
What say you MAGA retards in flyover country

Escape from New York isn’t just the title of a 1981 pulp classic starring Kurt Russell. It’s what Westchester County and Florida realtors told the world (including Fortune) about what would happen if Gotham elected a socialist mayor. But it’s time for a sequel with a different title.

In the aftermath of much well-heeled panic about a potential mass exodus of New York millionaires and billionaires following the election of mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani, the contrary is already happening, and Manhattan luxury apartment buyers are voting with their wallets.

Signed contracts for Manhattan homes costing $4 million or more rose to 176 in November, a 25% increase from October’s 141 deals, according to fresh data from brokerage Douglas Elliman and appraiser Miller Samuel Inc. New signed contracts more than $4 million increased more than twice the rate of the overall market, the report noted.

 
Jonathan Miller, President and CEO of Miller Samuel Inc., told Fortune the trend of wealthy buyers scooping up luxury New York real estate has been on display all year, contrary to the only recent narrative of elites fleeing the city.

“Throughout 2025 on a year-over-year basis, overall sales have risen, prices have risen, sales have risen faster than inventory, rents have risen, rental activity has risen, and especially in October and November,” Miller said. “I’m looking at this anecdotal argument, and the plural of anecdotal is not data.”

High earners have plenty of reasons to come to or stay in New York, according to Miller. Wall Street saw is largest bonuses since 1987 in 2024, following a strong market, a trend that is expected to continue this year, as another banner year for Wall Street is expected to raise the payouts for investment bankers, traders, and wealth-management professionals by up to 25%, according to a November report from compensation consultancy Johnson Associates Inc.

This isn’t the first time panicked premonitions of a dispersal of New York residents to the suburbs. In the early days of the pandemic, many feared New York would become vacant as the wealthy fled to suburban vacation homes. While many wealthy New Yorkers indeed left the city, the five boroughs nonetheless gained about 10,000 millionaires between 2020 and 2021, according to state data. Manhattan even gained 17,500 residents in 2022, mostly migrants from other boroughs.
 
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