Time is on our side; we "hold the cards"

T. A. Gardner said:
Maybe you should start with the 10 times over more "martyred" IRG that got turned into hamburger in an AWR when the LGB hit it...
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The dead do not speak.

Their blood cries to us in our resolve to resist the bullying of the arrogant American war machine.

All we need to do is endure until public opinion forces the tyrant Trump to abandon his murderous activities.

1 May is almost upon him, American.

The sixty days your law allows him to do as he pleases have almost elapsed.
 
The most recent War Powers resolution votes in 2026, aimed at reining in the tyrant Trump's military actions against Iran, took place on the following dates:

The Senate has held five separate votes this year to block the continuation of unauthorized hostilities in Iran:
  • April 22, 2026: The most recent vote (S.J.Res. 114) failed 51–46.
  • April 15, 2026: A prior resolution (S.J.Res. 123) failed 52–47.
  • March 24, 2026: (S.J.Res. 116) failed 53–47.
  • March 18, 2026: (S.J.Res. 118) failed 53–47.
  • March 4, 2026: The first major attempt of the year (S.J.Res. 104) failed 53–47.
The House of Representatives has held two significant votes to curb the president's war powers:
  • April 16, 2026: The resolution (H.Con.Res. 40) was rejected in a razor-thin 213–214 vote.
  • March 5, 2026: A previous resolution (H.Con.Res. 38) failed 212–219.
Under the 1973 War Powers Resolution, the 60-day deadline for unauthorized military operations in Iran is set to expire on May 1, 2026.
  • Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer has announced that Democrats will force a sixth vote as the deadline approaches.
Only a simple majority is needed to halt the madman Trump.

To pass the initial resolution and avoid a tie that JD Vance can break, the Senate needs a minimum of 51 votes.
To pass a War Powers resolution in the House of Representatives, the House requires a simple majority of those present and voting.
  • Target Number: 218 votes (assuming all 435 seats are filled and members are present).
  • Current Reality: As of April 2026, the House has 5 vacancies. With 430 active members, the required majority for passage is 216 votes.
To reach 216 votes, proponents need to flip at least 3-4 Republican or Independent members who caucused with the majority in the April 16 vote.
 

Iran holds the stronger cards in high-stakes diplomacy​


The U.S. called for a ceasefire only ten days after initiating hostilities against Iran.

Had Washington been capable of sustaining the conflict, it would not have accepted Tehran’s 10-point document as a framework for negotiations.

The objectives of the war have been exhausted, and it did not achieve the outcome it sought, from overthrowing the Iranian government as a first option, to eliminating its capabilities as a second option, to creating unrest, chaos, the entry of militias, and the fragmentation of the country. In fact, the opposite occurred, as an additional card was added: the Strait of Hormuz card, which has become the strongest negotiating tool for Iran.

The current situation is in a diplomatic phase in which Iran holds more control than the United States. The U.S. naval blockade against Iran is very costly and cannot be sustained for long, especially without secure maritime access to its bases in the Persian Gulf. The fate of these bases has become uncertain, as they have proven ineffective and costly, and have become more of a leverage point in Iran’s hands than a tool against it.

Iran has refused to resume negotiations until the U.S. naval blockade is lifted under a mutually acceptable settlement regarding navigation in the Iranian-controlled Strait of Hormuz.

Subsequent stages would involve the inclusion of regional allies in potential agreements, followed by negotiations.

Therefore, this is a phase of intense diplomacy, with Iran holding the upper hand. This became clearly evident in President Trump’s handling after the first two-week ceasefire, as Iran refused to engage in talks unless the blockade was lifted.

Initially, they were prepared, mentioning sending JD Vance, then discussing Kushner and Witkoff, on the basis that Abbas Araghchi was leading the round, but Iran rejected this unless the blockade was lifted.

This is because Iran does not want negotiations to focus on preliminary issues rather than core matters.

The core issues include arrangements for the Strait of Hormuz, compensation to Iran, inclusion of allies in agreements, and the right to engage in nuclear research.

Iranian diplomacy is moving in several directions. This includes securing international backing from Russia and reaching an understanding with Oman, a coastal state, since Oman and Iran are the two countries directly responsible for regulating passage.

Iran has effectively entrusted this matter to Oman as a friendly and non-hostile state, even though Oman was not originally expected to have any role in controlling passage through the Strait of Hormuz. This is aimed at establishing safe navigation once and for all by placing control in the hands of the coastal states, and ensuring safe passage for non-hostile powers that do not use transit as a means of aggression.

Russia, as an ally of Iran, is involved in many areas, including technology, exchange of expertise and weapons, intelligence, regional cooperation between neighboring countries, international backing in the UN Security Council, and the nuclear issue.

As for Pakistan, its selection as a broker was successful because it is a major Islamic country, it is a nuclear power and has good relations with all Persian Gulf countries.

Relations with Pakistan help counter sectarian strife, strengthen Pakistan’s international standing, and position it as an influential Islamic nuclear state in shaping regional affairs, considering that regional security is an Islamic responsibility.

Therefore, Ayatollah Sayed Mojtaba Khamenei's choice of Pakistan was highly successful, as it can serve as a strategic Muslim ally with strong influence in the region and meaningful ties with Persian Gulf states, helping to achieve regional security solutions under the sponsorship of regional countries.
 
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