Traitors.

Quote Originally Posted by LV426 View Post

“It happened all over PM, Earl. We set a time, then he PM'd me to say he wasn't going to show up. Since then, I've ignored him because he and I both know that he was the one who didn't follow through.”

If this is true, you are releasing PM information which is a violation of the TOS of JPP.

So, you are either a liar or in violation of the TOS of JPP., cobarde.
 
Originally Posted by LV426 View Post
"There is no compromising with Conservatism. It is an anti-democratic cult. Its members have no loyalty to the country, just to their race."

There are lots of black and brown Conservatives and LV is calling them "an anti-democratic cult. Its members have no loyalty to the country, just to their race."

LV is a racist.
 
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Dude, you look like a whiny ass when you do that.

It just encourages arrogant assholes like me to do this:

4qb2qg.jpg
 
which is why I call it trickle UP........because all that money that got used to invest, create jobs, put money in the economy, it all went UP to fill the pockets of the wealthy

Tax cuts did not lead to increased business investment as promised.

In fact, after the 2018 tax cut, business investment declined.

Do you know how "investing" works?
 
the premise has been that the wealthy invest in the economy to make more money.

Which is a false premise not supported by any empirical data of the last 40 years.

In fact, we just had a tax cut where this was promised and the result was that business investment after the tax cut declined. We then entered into a manufacturing recession in 2019, before the whole economy entered a recession in February 2020, before the COVID lockdowns started...all thanks to the tax cut.


that money allows companies to invest in newer products/services, which makes money for shareholders, which then requires more workers to provide and support those products/services..........is that correct?

That is not correct. That did not happen after the 2001 tax cut. Didn't happen after the 2003 tax cut. Didn't happen after the 2018 tax cut.

Soaking the rich never, ever, ever, ever works as promised.
 
Tax cuts did not lead to increased business investment as promised.

In fact, after the 2018 tax cut, business investment declined.

Do you know how "investing" works?

That's because, IMO, while the Laffer Curve is a good model, the fucking Republicans forget there are two sides to the curve; too little and too much.

At the moment, the tax cuts are too much as proved by the fact President Donald J. Trump has spent more money and created more debt than any President in history.

laffer_curve_3.jpg


https://zfacts.com/national-debt/
How “Voodoo” Caused Most of the National Debt
2020-04-30-National-Debt-to-GDP-zFacts.jpg
 
That's because, IMO, while the Laffer Curve is a good model, the fucking Republicans forget there are two sides to the curve; too little and too much.

The Laffer Curve is a stupid model, one that every single real economist laughs out of the room. It is not serious. Neither is Art Laffer.


At the moment, the tax cuts are too much as proved by the fact President Donald J. Drumpf has spent more money and created more debt than any President in history.

The deficit and debt are immaterial to what we are talking about because neither has a dramatic effect on the government's ability to borrow or spend. They're a distraction. In theory, we could run deficits forever (and we pretty much have) and it won't affect the government's ability to borrow at low rates.

So since we know that debt and deficit has no impact on the government's ability to borrow, we should be increasing or decreasing both as a secondary effect of policy.

This fixation people have on the debt and deficit is ridiculous. You can't treat government budgets like personal budgets because of several reasons:

1. Governments don't die so there is no time when the balance is due.
2. Government borrowing to spend during a recession is how you prevent a recession from falling into a depression.
3. Government collects different revenue at different times, there is not a weekly paycheck that it can count on that is consistent and evenly spread-out
4. Governments need to react to disasters and larger social problems, and can't budget in emergencies that they don't know anything about until after the emergency is here.
5. Government debt does not have a meaningful impact on borrowing rates, as we've seen this century; the Fed recognizes that deficits are necessary during recessions
6. The debt is a tally not of government spending, but of economic activity by our government. And there's no problem if one year, the government accounts for $4T in economic activity. That $4T isn't being spent in a different economy than you and I participate in. It's all the same economy.
 
The Laffer Curve is a stupid model, one that every single real economist laughs out of the room. It is not serious. Neither is Art Laffer....

Really? Can you link any of these laughs from a "real economist"?

The fact you don't understand the importance of debt and revenue ratios is all that any real economist needs to know about your ability to manage your own money.

Are you broke, sir? Are you up to your eyebrows in debt and praying that Biden will wave a wand and make all of your debt go away?

Where is this Magical Money Tree Democrats such as yourself believe exists?

0
 
Really? Can you link any of these laughs from a "real economist"?]

The Laughable Laffer Curve
Robert Vanderbrei
https://vanderbei.princeton.edu/LafferCurve/LafferLaughable.html

Laffer curves and laughable forecasts
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2012/mar/22/laffer-curves-and-laughable-forecasts

There's a reason they don't teach the Laffer Cure in Economics Schools. They didn't teach it when I was at the Griffin Department of Economics at U of Chicago over a decade ago, nor do they teach it as valid economic or fiscal theory today.
 
The fact you don't understand the importance of debt and revenue ratios is all that any real economist needs to know about your ability to manage your own money.

Well, funny enough, Rogoff and Reinhart actually argued your stupid position in a paper called "Growth in the Time of Debt."

In that paper, they concluded that once debt reaches 90% of GDP, the economy "falls off a cliff".

But that conclusion was wrong. It was fudged with data omissions and "spreadsheet errors" that, when corrected, prove the opposite...that as debt increases, economic activity also picks up. Every single Conservative argument about the economy is wrong. All of them. They all start from a false premise and they need to fudge and fix the data in order for their conclusions to have merit.

This isn't hard to understand because a debt increase is just the government spending money in the economy. And the government spends money in the same economy that you and I spend money in.

But this gets to the bigger issue of debt dogma..."Growth in the Time of Debt" was a conclusion in search of a theory. Now, because they acted in bad faith, the argument they made about debt's impact on the economy is all bunkum nonsense now, as are all of the people who continue making that stupid argument that has been proven 100% wrong..

So the question isn't "what about the debt?"...the question is why you, Dutch Uncle, continue repeating discredited debt arguments and nonsense?
 
Are you broke, sir? Are you up to your eyebrows in debt and praying that Biden will wave a wand and make all of your debt go away?

No, but you probably are, and you think it's some kind of personal merit to have to struggle with debt. It's not. It's unnecessary.


Where is this Magical Money Tree Democrats such as yourself believe exists?

If tax cuts trickled down, how come our economy entered a recession in February this year, before the COVID lockdowns?
 
Really? Can you link any of these laughs from a "real economist"?

The fact you don't understand the importance of debt and revenue ratios is all that any real economist needs to know about your ability to manage your own money.

Are you broke, sir? Are you up to your eyebrows in debt and praying that Biden will wave a wand and make all of your debt go away?

Where is this Magical Money Tree Democrats such as yourself believe exists?

0

Your problem is that you cannot conceive of something unless it's boiled down to a personal level.

So as you try to compare governmental debt with personal debt, you do so ignoring all the reasons I gave as to why you're a fucking idiot for doing that.

You ignored those reasons because acknowledging them would mean that your simplistic attempt to boil down government budgets to personal ones is misguided and ill-informed.

Basically, government budgets are too complicated for you to understand, as are government revenues, which do not consistently come in at the same numbers each month.

So a government budget is wholly different than a personal one because in a personal budget, you can count on the same revenue each week/bi-weekly. Government doesn't collect revenue the same way.

Of course, you know that but are pretending you don't because you're a sophist.
 
The Laughable Laffer Curve
Robert Vanderbrei
https://vanderbei.princeton.edu/LafferCurve/LafferLaughable.html

Laffer curves and laughable forecasts
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2012/mar/22/laffer-curves-and-laughable-forecasts

There's a reason they don't teach the Laffer Cure in Economics Schools. They didn't teach it when I was at the Griffin Department of Economics at U of Chicago over a decade ago, nor do they teach it as valid economic or fiscal theory today.
Thanks for the links.

The first link is interesting but flawed since it assumes extremes. When assessing groups of people, be they farmers or industrial capitalists, there's an average that follows human behavior**. In short, on average, people will do what is best for themselves. They'll follow the rules of the game, sometimes violate those rules if they can get away with it (e.g. declaring the IRS maximum for charity donations that do not require receipts) As such, the Laffer Curve is a general model, but as both links point out, it's not the same for individuals and corporations.

The Guardian article lists a quote noting two problems:
Economists keep quoting the Laffer curve in trying to determine the rate of tax at which the actual tax take is maximised. The problem, of course, is twofold. When Arthur Laffer proposed his theory, industrial-scale tax avoidance was not being practised. His theory was that high tax rates discouraged people from working harder because the taxman benefited too much. So the first problem is the type of tax avoidance never imagined by Laffer. The second is that there is no such thing as an acceptable rate of tax to the amoral: any tax is too high a price to pay. To say, as George Osborne has, that rich people will modify their behaviour because he has dropped the top rate of marginal tax by 5% is laughable and will come back to haunt him. We need a royal commission into taxation and how it has come to pass that we are where we are with regard to tax avoidance.

Legislation will handle both. One is to limit how corporations avoid taxes. This may require international treaties. The UK had a much bigger problem with this. Also there are UK celebrities (and maybe one JPP member) who left the UK to dodge taxes.

The other isn't really a problem since the amoral bitch about everything. Ignore them. If they violate the law, prosecute them.



**I'm not an economist but after several fuckups in my twenties, I became a damn good saver and manager of my own funds. While not an economist, I do have some knowledge about human behavior. Individuals are difficult to predict without a period of close scrutiny, but large groups of people are much easier to predict because such behaviors always fall within range of human behaviors. For example, most people are socialized (meaning they know not to kill, rape or steal from each other) and most people want to be free to do as they please which often includes caring for their families. It doesn't matter what culture, what religion or anything else: If they are human, they will fall within a set range of behaviors.
 
No, but you probably are, and you think it's some kind of personal merit to have to struggle with debt. It's not. It's unnecessary.

If tax cuts trickled down, how come our economy entered a recession in February this year, before the COVID lockdowns?

No. Read my previous post.

I'm not saying tax cuts trickle down. I'm saying there's an optimal tax rate for the nation. That rate varies differently for individuals and businesses. It even varies for individuals since a loaf of bread costs the same if you are homeless or living in Trump Tower.
 
Your problem is that you cannot conceive of something unless it's boiled down to a personal level.

So as you try to compare governmental debt with personal debt, you do so ignoring all the reasons I gave as to why you're a fucking idiot for doing that.

You ignored those reasons because acknowledging them would mean that your simplistic attempt to boil down government budgets to personal ones is misguided and ill-informed.

Basically, government budgets are too complicated for you to understand, as are government revenues, which do not consistently come in at the same numbers each month.

So a government budget is wholly different than a personal one because in a personal budget, you can count on the same revenue each week/bi-weekly. Government doesn't collect revenue the same way.

Of course, you know that but are pretending you don't because you're a sophist.

Thanks for the prejudgement and rant. Hopefully my previous posts answered most of your questions.
 
Thanks for the links.

The first link is interesting but flawed since it assumes extremes. When assessing groups of people, be they farmers or industrial capitalists, there's an average that follows human behavior**. In short, on average, people will do what is best for themselves. They'll follow the rules of the game, sometimes violate those rules if they can get away with it (e.g. declaring the IRS maximum for charity donations that do not require receipts) As such, the Laffer Curve is a general model, but as both links point out, it's not the same for individuals and corporations.

The Guardian article lists a quote noting two problems:
Economists keep quoting the Laffer curve in trying to determine the rate of tax at which the actual tax take is maximised. The problem, of course, is twofold. When Arthur Laffer proposed his theory, industrial-scale tax avoidance was not being practised. His theory was that high tax rates discouraged people from working harder because the taxman benefited too much. So the first problem is the type of tax avoidance never imagined by Laffer. The second is that there is no such thing as an acceptable rate of tax to the amoral: any tax is too high a price to pay. To say, as George Osborne has, that rich people will modify their behaviour because he has dropped the top rate of marginal tax by 5% is laughable and will come back to haunt him. We need a royal commission into taxation and how it has come to pass that we are where we are with regard to tax avoidance.

Legislation will handle both. One is to limit how corporations avoid taxes. This may require international treaties. The UK had a much bigger problem with this. Also there are UK celebrities (and maybe one JPP member) who left the UK to dodge taxes.

The other isn't really a problem since the amoral bitch about everything. Ignore them. If they violate the law, prosecute them.



**I'm not an economist but after several fuckups in my twenties, I became a damn good saver and manager of my own funds. While not an economist, I do have some knowledge about human behavior. Individuals are difficult to predict without a period of close scrutiny, but large groups of people are much easier to predict because such behaviors always fall within range of human behaviors. For example, most people are socialized (meaning they know not to kill, rape or steal from each other) and most people want to be free to do as they please which often includes caring for their families. It doesn't matter what culture, what religion or anything else: If they are human, they will fall within a set range of behaviors.

This is what I've been taught: You can't quantify behavior, but you can quantify spending and taxation.
 
I'm not saying tax cuts trickle down. I'm saying there's an optimal tax rate for the nation. That rate varies differently for individuals and businesses. It even varies for individuals since a loaf of bread costs the same if you are homeless or living in Trump Tower.

I don't think we need to mess around too much with the marginal tax rates, except for those at the top.

Most economists say the optimal top tax rate should be between 50-70%.

Some, like Pinketty, say it should be at least 80%.

There is no magic bullet tax rate that is optimal because, as you correctly state, everyone approaches it differently. And you can't use the Laffer Curve as a guide or model either because we've never reached that point where the top tax rate was so high that it harmed growth. During the 1950's the top tax rate was between 70-90% and we had more sustained growth then than we do now. During the 1990's, when Clinton raised taxes, the economy didn't struggle...instead, it boomed until the Capital Gains Tax was lowered, and that prompted the 2000 Dotcom Bubble Burst.
 
The Laffer Curve is a stupid model, one that every single real economist laughs out of the room. It is not serious. Neither is Art Laffer.
The Laffer curve is based on a very real phenomenon. The curve is based on government revenues at 0% produce zero government revenue and there comes a tax rate at which point tax avoidance overcomes the revenue with an assumption that at 100% tax rate the government revenues are not 100% because of tax avoidance. The problem that Laffer had is he assigned the wrong numbers to where the curve peaks and tax avoidance starts to occur. But then they went further and tried to say that economic growth was part of the Laffer Curve and at some point taxes would get so high that economic growth would slow. In reality, a tax burden of between 15-25% in the US has never shown such a change in economic growth. Based on past economic data we could raise tax revenues in this country almost 40% greater than they are currently without economic damage.





The deficit and debt are immaterial to what we are talking about because neither has a dramatic effect on the government's ability to borrow or spend. They're a distraction. In theory, we could run deficits forever (and we pretty much have) and it won't affect the government's ability to borrow at low rates.
Borrowing at a low rate only occurs if the lender buying the debt believes they will be paid back their principle and interest. At some point the debt load can become so high that lenders no longer believe that which causes the price of borrowing to increase.

So since we know that debt and deficit has no impact on the government's ability to borrow, we should be increasing or decreasing both as a secondary effect of policy.

This fixation people have on the debt and deficit is ridiculous. You can't treat government budgets like personal budgets because of several reasons:

1. Governments don't die so there is no time when the balance is due.
2. Government borrowing to spend during a recession is how you prevent a recession from falling into a depression.
3. Government collects different revenue at different times, there is not a weekly paycheck that it can count on that is consistent and evenly spread-out
4. Governments need to react to disasters and larger social problems, and can't budget in emergencies that they don't know anything about until after the emergency is here.
5. Government debt does not have a meaningful impact on borrowing rates, as we've seen this century; the Fed recognizes that deficits are necessary during recessions
6. The debt is a tally not of government spending, but of economic activity by our government. And there's no problem if one year, the government accounts for $4T in economic activity. That $4T isn't being spent in a different economy than you and I participate in. It's all the same economy.

Yes. Governments do need some flexibility for budgeting. But the reality is that borrowing is always based on a belief that it can and will be repaid at a later date either through tax revenues or through more borrowing. Ultimately there can come a time when lenders no longer believe that revenues can keep pace with borrowing and money becomes too expensive to borrow. At that point there are other mechanisms that can be used but without a faith in government and its eventual ability to pay its lenders on time the final result could end up being economic collapse caused by collapse of the monetary system.
 
I don't think we need to mess around too much with the marginal tax rates, except for those at the top.

Most economists say the optimal top tax rate should be between 50-70%.

Some, like Pinketty, say it should be at least 80%.

There is no magic bullet tax rate that is optimal because, as you correctly state, everyone approaches it differently. And you can't use the Laffer Curve as a guide or model either because we've never reached that point where the top tax rate was so high that it harmed growth. During the 1950's the top tax rate was between 70-90% and we had more sustained growth then than we do now. During the 1990's, when Clinton raised taxes, the economy didn't struggle...instead, it boomed until the Capital Gains Tax was lowered, and that prompted the 2000 Dotcom Bubble Burst.

You mean all the Lefty, Democratic Socialist economists favor a 50-70% tax rate?

You and I can agree on one thing: The tax rate needs to be raised because just increasing the national debt isn't good for anyone except the rich living today.
 
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