Trump 2020 win projected by 3 different models, New York Times op-ed says

Terri4Trump said:
Trump 2020 win projected by 3 different models, New York Times op-ed says

The combination of a strong economy and the built-in advantages for an incumbent gives President Trump a "formidable" advantage in his bid for re-election, according to a New York Times op-ed.

Steven Rattner, who served as counselor to the Treasury secretary in the Obama administration and worked on the auto industry bailouts, explained in his piece that three separate projection models currently point to a win for Trump.

One model by Ray Fair, a professor at Yale, projects Trump's 2020 vote share as high as 56 percent given the economic boom, but that does not account for voters' issues with the president's personality.

"As recent polls show, if the election were today, he would lose to most of the Democratic hopefuls by a substantial margin; in the case of Joe Biden, by nearly 8 percentage points," said Rattner. A recent Fox News poll found Democratic presidential frontrunner Joe Biden with a double-digit lead over Trump.

Fair's model -- which pegged Barack Obama's vote shares nearly on the dot -- showed Trump should have received 54 percent of the vote in 2016, but Trump actually got 48.8 percent against Hillary Clinton. "I’m quite confident that the gap was a function of the generally unfavorable rankings on Mr. Trump’s personal qualities," Rattner wrote.

A Monmouth University poll last week showed just 37 percent of voters believe Trump should be re-elected, while 60 percent prefer a new president. Rattner said in addition to Fair, two other projection models give Trump a clear edge.

"Mark Zandi, the chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, has looked at 12 models, and Mr. Trump wins in all of them. Donald Luskin of Trend Macrolytics has reached the same conclusion in his examination of the Electoral College," Rattner wrote

SOURCE LINK
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Nothing has changed. Trump will win.
 
Terri4Trump said:
Trump 2020 win projected by 3 different models, New York Times op-ed says

The combination of a strong economy and the built-in advantages for an incumbent gives President Trump a "formidable" advantage in his bid for re-election, according to a New York Times op-ed.

Steven Rattner, who served as counselor to the Treasury secretary in the Obama administration and worked on the auto industry bailouts, explained in his piece that three separate projection models currently point to a win for Trump.

One model by Ray Fair, a professor at Yale, projects Trump's 2020 vote share as high as 56 percent given the economic boom, but that does not account for voters' issues with the president's personality.

"As recent polls show, if the election were today, he would lose to most of the Democratic hopefuls by a substantial margin; in the case of Joe Biden, by nearly 8 percentage points," said Rattner. A recent Fox News poll found Democratic presidential frontrunner Joe Biden with a double-digit lead over Trump.

Fair's model -- which pegged Barack Obama's vote shares nearly on the dot -- showed Trump should have received 54 percent of the vote in 2016, but Trump actually got 48.8 percent against Hillary Clinton. "I’m quite confident that the gap was a function of the generally unfavorable rankings on Mr. Trump’s personal qualities," Rattner wrote.

A Monmouth University poll last week showed just 37 percent of voters believe Trump should be re-elected, while 60 percent prefer a new president. Rattner said in addition to Fair, two other projection models give Trump a clear edge.

"Mark Zandi, the chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, has looked at 12 models, and Mr. Trump wins in all of them. Donald Luskin of Trend Macrolytics has reached the same conclusion in his examination of the Electoral College," Rattner wrote

SOURCE LINK
Click to expand...

While it's nice to look at these polls and feel good, remember that polls don't predict anything (Statistical math is incapable prediction), and that the raw data is not available yet again so it is not know whether it is biased.
 
Into the Night said:
While it's nice to look at these polls and feel good, remember that polls don't predict anything (Statistical math is incapable prediction), and that the raw data is not available yet again so it is not know whether it is biased.
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Its three models, not polls. But I agree, its too far out. But from every angle and every perspective Trump seems to be the projected winner and I am sure he will win.
 
Terri4Trump said:
Its three models, not polls. But I agree, its too far out. But from every angle and every perspective Trump seems to be the projected winner and I am sure he will win.
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If so, models don't predict either. You are referring to algorithms upon those models. Models are the 'noun', the algorithm is the 'verb'. Computer not needed.

An algorithm, any algorithm, will only produce numbers the algorithm is told to produce. These are essentially random numbers at this point of type randU (the so-called 'predictable' random number. They come out of someone's head. Whether someone thinks up a random number or thinks up an algorithm to produce them, they are the same. Numbers produced by algorithms are not data. Data is the result of an observation, not an algorithm.

In either case, it's sort of like predicting the next die roll using probability math. You can't.

That said, you CAN gauge current attitudes of people yourself and see which way the 'wind is blowing' so to speak. It does not predict future wind, but it does let you keep a finger on the pulse of people's attitudes. Like any battle, the outcome is never sure, even with superior equipment and numbers.

I like your confidence though. I see good chances for Trump winning myself, and they seem to be improving. This is a prediction though, and I am fully aware of the weaknesses in it. Confidence can go a long way, but the battle ain't won...yet.
 
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Liz Peek: Trump is gaining among Hispanics (yes, Dems, we know you are shocked)
https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/trump-gaining-hispanics-dems-shocked-liz-peek

In 2018, Hispanic voters gave Republican congressional candidates 29 percent of the vote, or slightly above Trump’s take in 2016, even as white voters defected from the GOP. The number of Hispanics identifying themselves as Republicans climbed from 24 percent in 2016 to 27 percent in 2018, according to Pew polling. Meanwhile, the president’s approval rating among Hispanics ranges in recent polls between 29 percent and 37 percent.

A New York Times reporter was clearly baffled by this turn of events as she ventured to cover the president’s recent rally in New Mexico, where 47 percent of the electorate is Latino. Jennifer Medina was shocked to find large numbers of Hispanics who had waited in the sun to greet the president, and whose "identity was something of an afterthought."

She met Latino Trump supporters who backed his position on illegal immigration, and who felt that "We need to take care of the people who are already here." They were not, she reported, "single-issue voters," which seemed to surprise the Times writer. Those proudly announcing themselves as Latinos for Trump also tended to favor his position on abortion, his appointments of conservative judges, and defense of gun rights. (Take that, Beto!)
 
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Terri4Trump said:
Trump 2020 win projected by 3 different models, New York Times op-ed says

The combination of a strong economy and the built-in advantages for an incumbent gives President Trump a "formidable" advantage in his bid for re-election, according to a New York Times op-ed.

Steven Rattner, who served as counselor to the Treasury secretary in the Obama administration and worked on the auto industry bailouts, explained in his piece that three separate projection models currently point to a win for Trump.

One model by Ray Fair, a professor at Yale, projects Trump's 2020 vote share as high as 56 percent given the economic boom, but that does not account for voters' issues with the president's personality.

"As recent polls show, if the election were today, he would lose to most of the Democratic hopefuls by a substantial margin; in the case of Joe Biden, by nearly 8 percentage points," said Rattner. A recent Fox News poll found Democratic presidential frontrunner Joe Biden with a double-digit lead over Trump.

Fair's model -- which pegged Barack Obama's vote shares nearly on the dot -- showed Trump should have received 54 percent of the vote in 2016, but Trump actually got 48.8 percent against Hillary Clinton. "I’m quite confident that the gap was a function of the generally unfavorable rankings on Mr. Trump’s personal qualities," Rattner wrote.

A Monmouth University poll last week showed just 37 percent of voters believe Trump should be re-elected, while 60 percent prefer a new president. Rattner said in addition to Fair, two other projection models give Trump a clear edge.

"Mark Zandi, the chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, has looked at 12 models, and Mr. Trump wins in all of them. Donald Luskin of Trend Macrolytics has reached the same conclusion in his examination of the Electoral College," Rattner wrote

SOURCE LINK
Click to expand...

OP stands unrefuted
 
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