Trump Approval 51%

Thing1 said:
One of the biggest myths about 2016 is that the polling data was "way off."

It was actually pretty consistent w/ previous elections, and pretty accurate nationally. Most polls had Hillary up nationally - but the average was about 2%, which is pretty much exactly what she ended up winning the popular vote by.

For the electoral, most of the state polls were actually pretty close in the end, too - particularly considering the Comey letter & Trump's late surge.
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yes thing, I told you the same thing about the 2% and how close that would make the election numerous times throughout 2016 and you ignored me.

Some polling and conclusions derived from such was def far off though, with multiple ones estimating clintons chances at winning to be 99%, which is and was and will always be a ludicrous assessment in any context.
 
Rad Dude said:
yes thing, I told you the same thing about the 2% and how close that would make the election numerous times throughout 2016 and you ignored me.

Some polling and conclusions derived from such was def far off though, with multiple ones estimating clintons chances at winning to be 99%, which is and was and will always be a ludicrous assessment in any context.
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And yet you go right to my comment, and ignore all of the posters on the right who claim otherwise.

Cool.
 
rasmussen is currently an outlier. so it must be taken with a grain of salt.

however, rasmuessen was also the most accurate pollster for the 2016 election.

If i had to a gun to my head, I would rasmussen is closer to the truth than other polls. For a couple of reasons:

1) rasmussen typically always polls likely voters, instead of "americans" or registered voters. When it comes to electoral politics that's obviously going to be a better sample to take from.

2) a lot of conservatives do not trust the deep state media, and will hang up/ignore the calls. liberals on the otherhand, being smug as they are love the sound of their own voice will gladly spout off their bullshit political beliefs. it's one of their favorite things to do.

what we def know is all those retards talking about how trump is in the low 30's hasn't been true for a very long time.
 
Thing1 said:
And yet you go right to my comment, and ignore all of the posters on the right who claim otherwise.

Cool.
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i'm making my way through the thread. It's kind of annoying for you to post this post over and over and over again (I notice you do it, you must have like the paragraph saved somewhere you say it so much), given that I was telling you the same thing throughout the election and you kept saying trump had no chance. If you were intelligent like myself, you would have realized how much closer the election actually was.
 
Rad Dude said:
i'm making my way through the thread. It's kind of annoying for you to post this post over and over and over again (I notice you do it, you must have like the paragraph saved somewhere you say it so much), given that I was telling you the same thing throughout the election and you kept saying trump had no chance. If you were intelligent like myself, you would have realized how much closer the election actually was.
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Trump was done until Comey's letter. Fact.

And I said as much.
 
Rad Dude said:
rasmussen is currently an outlier. so it must be taken with a grain of salt.

however, rasmuessen was also the most accurate pollster for the 2016 election.

If i had to a gun to my head, I would rasmussen is closer to the truth than other polls. For a couple of reasons:

1) rasmussen typically always polls likely voters, instead of "americans" or registered voters. When it comes to electoral politics that's obviously going to be a better sample to take from.

2) a lot of conservatives do not trust the deep state media, and will hang up/ignore the calls. liberals on the otherhand, being smug as they are love the sound of their own voice will gladly spout off their bullshit political beliefs. it's one of their favorite things to do.

what we def know is all those retards talking about how trump is in the low 30's hasn't been true for a very long time.
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accurate and clearly stated.
 
Thing1 said:
Trump was done until Comey's letter. Fact.

And I said as much.
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LIAR. stop lying. I have too much respect for you and you seem like a normal well adjusted individual. STOP LYING thing. On november 5th you said it was all over for trump. FACT. That was AFTER the letter. FACT. You were a dopey retard all election long. You never understood how the national numbers could correlate to a tight race. I told you many times, you ignored it. NOW you parrot it.
 
Rad Dude said:
LIAR. stop lying. I have too much respect for you and you seem like a normal well adjusted individual. STOP LYING thing. On november 5th you said it was all over for trump. FACT. That was AFTER the letter. FACT. You were a dopey retard all election long. You never understood how the national numbers could correlate to a tight race. I told you many times, you ignored it. NOW you parrot it.
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Started a thread about it, and knew it as soon as I saw the headline on good ol' CNN.

What about my post was wrong? You claim to be all that w/ political knowledge. Do you think Trump had a snowball's chance without that letter? Put aside your hyperness about me. Do you think Trump wins without that letter?

And it's an easy yes or no. Don't go off on speculative nonsense.
 
Thing1 said:
Started a thread about it, and knew it as soon as I saw the headline on good ol' CNN.

What about my post was wrong? You claim to be all that w/ political knowledge. Do you think Trump had a snowball's chance without that letter? Put aside your hyperness about me. Do you think Trump wins without that letter?

And it's an easy yes or no. Don't go off on speculative nonsense.
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re: trumps chances, even before the letter trump was around 10-20% according to 538. I can't remember the exact numbers. But he was never non zero. So again, you clearly don't understand probabilities. Just like I shouted throughout 2016 that liberals like yourself were rounding down a 30% chance to zero, you are now doing the same thing with him being possibly 20%, or 15%. Trump always had a sizeable chance of winning from day 1 til the end.

re: the rest, I just find it amusing you now repeat over and over the things I had to beat into your head in the 2016 election. You have no capacity to analyze polling data, so stop passing yourself off as an expert. Or at the very least, show some humility.
 
Rad Dude said:
re: trumps chances, even before the letter trump was around 10-20% according to 538. I can't remember the exact numbers. But he was never non zero. So again, you clearly don't understand probabilities. Just like I shouted throughout 2016 that liberals like yourself were rounding down a 30% chance to zero, you are now doing the same thing with him being possibly 20%, or 15%. Trump always had a sizeable chance of winning from day 1 til the end.

re: the rest, I just find it amusing you now repeat over and over the things I had to beat into your head in the 2016 election. You have no capacity to analyze polling data, so stop passing yourself off as an expert. Or at the very least, show some humility.
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I'm simplify that. Trump won by about 70,000 votes in 3 states. No Comey letter = no chance for Trump.
 
Thing1 said:
I'm simplify that. Trump won by about 70,000 votes in 3 states. No Comey letter = no chance for Trump.
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there is no evidence to support that data. The 70'000 voters you allude to are mostly blue collar workers who had lost their jobs to manufacturing going overseas. There is no data to support that they made their mind up regarding comey and not before hand. Not all voters are the same.
 
Rad Dude said:
there is no evidence to support that data. The 70'000 voters you allude to are mostly blue collar workers who had lost their jobs to manufacturing going overseas. There is no data to support that they made their mind up regarding comey and not before hand. Not all voters are the same.
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It's just common sense. The entire last week of the campaign - really, the most important - was sidetracked by a "Hillary Scandal!" October surprise. Please.

It's not the 70,000 who would have switched votes. It's the thousands more than that who were tepid on Hillary & decided to sit the election out.
 
Thing1 said:
It's just common sense. The entire last week of the campaign - really, the most important - was sidetracked by a "Hillary Scandal!" October surprise. Please.

It's not the 70,000 who would have switched votes. It's the thousands more than that who were tepid on Hillary & decided to sit the election out.
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you are making the same errors you used to make. Using speculation in the place of fact. You have no evidence to support that the voters in states you are talking about didn't make up their mind before hand. And it doesn't matter anyway, because I am saying comey letter aside, YES, trump still had a very sizeable chance of winning the election. He was almost never below 15% at any point. 20% is a very high chance of winning. It is not a "snowballs chance in hell"

You continue to demonstrate your lack of understanding when it comes to probabilities and odds. You assume 20%=0. It's a bias that many humans have, most naturally have a hard time comprehending probabilities, and you are no exception.
 
what are the chances of drawing an inside straight? a low probability, but you still get the chance to draw a winner
 
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