trump Crashes the Market
- Thread starter katzgar
- Start date
Since the start of the Russia Tax Cut in January 2018, the market is down and wages for 90% of workers have flatlined or declined.
Oh, and the deficit is now back to $1T.
I'm old enough to remember when Conservatives stapled teabags to their faces and bellowed like farm animals over the size of the deficit ten years ago.
Oh, and the deficit is now back to $1T.
I'm old enough to remember when Conservatives stapled teabags to their faces and bellowed like farm animals over the size of the deficit ten years ago.
Thread translation:
Fascinating; so when the market climbed by over 1,000 points you didn't give him credit for that? You're a moron on steroids you know that?
I wonder how Trump is able to manipulate the market; any ideas?
You never tire of looking like a moron do you snowflake? It's hard to say who is more retarded, you or Katzgar.
canceled.2021.1
#AMERICAISDEAD
cancel2 2022
Canceled
Kuntzgar doing what he does best!!
Then you're old enough to remember sticking you nose up a black President's ass and kissing it every time he did something. Pucker up, boy.
Irish Exit
Verified User
Mortgage rates continue to fall in spite of fed rate hikes and the yield curve is negative. Tick Tock goes the recession clock.
I haven't seen mortgage rates fall. They have climbed. Link?
Consumer interest rates seem headed for uptick in 2019
https://www.jsonline.com/story/mone...cost-borrowing-may-headed-up-2019/2477361002/
Mortgage Rates Continue Steady Climb
https://themreport.com/daily-dose/09-13-2018/mortgage-rates-continue-steady-climb
Irish Exit
Verified User
Your second link is from September. They have been falling since the middle of November. https://www.bankrate.com/mortgages/analysis/
I know that; I was showing that it has not declined but been climbing since January. I also provided a link predicting that rates will continue to rise in 2019.
How is this leading towards a recession?
This might help you:
http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/pmms30.html
USFREEDOM911
MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN
Investors are finding out now why the stock market tanked in December
When U.S. stocks posted their worst December since the Great Depression, traders put plenty of the blame on actions by the Federal Reserve and that other favorite scapegoat, computerized trading.
But now it seems clear that the market was mostly anticipating what has actually happened in recent days: Companies are cutting profit forecasts and trying to temper expectations for earnings growth this year after a big 2018.
On the first day of trading last week, Apple warned that its first quarter sales wouldn't be as high as previously projected and said its profit margin would be ever so slightly narrower than forecast. The Nikkei Asian Review reported this week that Apple is cutting its iPhone production by 10 percent for the next three months.
It is more of the same for other companies. Beverage giant Constellation Brands said Wednesday that its fiscal 2019 earnings per share would be $9.20 to $9.30, down from the range of $9.60 to $9.75 it forecast earlier. The company said it expects weak sales in its wine and spirits business next quarter.
And home builder Lennar Corp. said Wednesday it would delay putting out a 2019 forecast because of "softness" and "uncertainty" in the housing sector.
Interest rate hikes by the Fed have contributed to weaker demand for mortgages and home purchases, but there are other reasons for the late-2018 market decline. Maneesh Deshpande, the head of U.S. equity strategy at Barclays, outlined several factors in a note on Tuesday, including U.S. political turmoil — the federal government is in week three of a partial shutdown — a weakening Chinese economy and bearish sentiment by retail investors.
Barclays cut its S&P price target for 2019 to 2,750 from 3,000, still up 6 percent, and lowered its projected S&P EPS to $171 from $176.
Morgan Stanley's Michael Wilson, also a chief U.S. equity strategist, told CNBC on Tuesday that he has left his S&P price target unchanged at 2,750. "All of the things that we've been worried about, the market's been worried about all year, are now starting to come to the fore."
Samsung Electronics warned Tuesday of lower than expected profit in the fourth quarter, which is soon to be reported, because of rising economic uncertainties. Last month, logistics company Federal Express slashed its 2019 earnings outlook and said it would have to cut costs because of a global economic slowdown.
For the fourth quarter, which for many companies ends in December, 72 S&P 500 companies have issued earnings warnings, twice as many as have issued positive guidance, according to FactSet. Earnings growth rates have been revised lower by companies in all 11 S&P sectors.
It's possible S&P could have earnings growth of more than 15 percent for the fourth quarter, but that would be below the 25 percent notched for each of the previous three quarters, FactSet research said.
And analysts are now looking for single-digit earnings growth for the next three quarters of this year. While fourth quarter 2018 earnings growth is projected to be 11.4 percent, the first quarter projection is for 2.9 percent growth, then 3.7 percent in the second quarter and 4.3 percent in the third.
"In the last three months of 2018, markets were pricing in no earnings growth, and perhaps even negative growth, in 2019," says Earnings Scout's Nick Raich. "The good news is that markets likely overshot just how much 2019 EPS estimates were going to drop."
Stocks have rebounded so far in 2019 as investors make a bet that the bad news yet to come this earnings season is priced in. We'll just have to see.
Getin the ring
Verified User
Irish Exit
Verified User
Mortgage rates falling in the face of rate hikes by the feds is a good indication that borrowing is slowing down. Slowing down of borrowing indicates the economy on Main Street is slowing. Slowing economy equals an approaching recession. What happened last July doesn't mean much toward what happens tomorrow. There is a sharp downturn in mortgage rates over the last 6 weeks.
Average for the year was 4.54%. Decembers was 4.64%. Average for 2018 was 3.99% and for 2016 3.65%. I don't see a downturn unless the Fed stops raising the cost of doing business.
As long as rates are stable, the mortgage market will grow. Their will also be more demand when tax returns are filled and people discover they have more money thanks to the changes to the tax code and bonuses get paid out.
I don't see this emerging recession yet. We are still growing out of the malaise created by Obamunism.
Irish Exit
Verified User
Over the same six weeks mortgage rates have been falling, the markets have been falling and gas prices have been cratering. I am not sure what indicator or situation would lead you to believe the economy is slowing if this combination does not.
Superfreak
Verified User
those are old. The 10yr Treasury yield was about 3.2% in October. It fell to about 2.7 right now. The mortgage rates are based off of the 10yr.
That said, a lot of that is simply flight to quality we saw as world equity markets fell. Given our yields are substantially higher than that of Europe, the money went into our bonds.
Rates fell in June too. They fell in April of 2017 as well. Gas prices have been going up.
January 2016 the price of oil had cratered to 35.77 a barrel. Did we have a recession? Would the economy do better if the price went back over $100 a barrel?
https://www.macrotrends.net/1369/crude-oil-price-history-chart