Trump's Poll Numbers

[MAGA]

Trump's Poll Numbers
Another Great American Brief

Trump's Poll Numbers

Buckle Up and Prepare for Greatness & Even More Winning

terryobriengreatamerican.substack.com

Dear Great Americans and patriots, they say that there is only one poll that matters: The election. Well, we just had an election, and Trump won!
The poll numbers you see today, the ones the liberal media loves to trumpet as the "end of Trump," are nothing more than a manufactured narrative. They’re the product of a biased press corps that has been hell-bent on tearing down President Trump from the moment he descended that escalator in 2015. The mainstream media—you know, the same folks who called him a Russian agent for four years only to admit it was all a hoax—are now trying to convince you that the American people have turned on him. But let me tell you, the American people are smarter than that. The press never seems to learn that.

• Let’s talk about the polls: These so-called "scientific" surveys are often skewed, oversampling Democrats and underrepresenting the silent majority—the hardworking, patriotic Americans who don’t have time to sit around answering pollsters’ questions. Remember 2016? The polls had Hillary Clinton winning in a landslide. How’d that turn out? Exactly. Polls are a tool of the establishment to shape public opinion, not reflect it.
• Negative Fake News: It’s relentless. Every day, it’s the same old song: "Trump’s a dictator," "Trump’s ruining the economy," "Trump’s dividing the country." But here’s the truth: President Trump delivered the strongest economy in modern history before the pandemic. Unemployment was at record lows, wages were rising, and America was respected on the world stage again. The economy is cyclical, and when it rebounds as it will—so will Trump’s numbers. Mark my words.
  A recent analysis by the Media Research Center has revealed that 92% of the major network media coverage of President Donald Trump during his first 100 days in office was negative. People watch this fake news, some believe it, and the polls reflect that. In an age when the legacy media now lies with wild abandon, not even pretending to be fair journalists, polls cannot be trusted. There is one poll we can trust though, we took it a little over one hundred days ago. It was called an election, and Trump won.
• False narratives: From the Russia collusion hoax to the January 6th "insurrection" myth, the left and their media allies have been peddling lies to discredit Trump. But the American people see through it. They know that Trump fights for them—for lower taxes, for secure borders, for law and order. When the economy turns around, and it will, they’ll remember who put America First.
• Just Imagine: Imagine you are in a gardening contest, and you get judged on your garden two days after planting the seeds. That would be insane. Some people are judging the economy while Trump policies have not even had a chance to kick in yet. Trump is not just tinkering around thee edges like all other past president have, he is trying to achieve massive, fundamental change that will put America back on the correct course. That takes time! People need to sit back and be patient. It took two years for Ronald Reagan's policies to really bear big fruit.
• Winning: Look how fast President Trump fixed the broken border. He is a man of his word and he keeps his promises. He is protecting women from men in sports, ending DEI racism, revitalizing the military, and so much more. He will fix the economy too. Just give his plans time to work. It could take two, even three years.

As Ronald Reagan once said, "The future doesn't belong to the fainthearted; it belongs to the brave." Stay the Course! Trust Trump! Be brave, folks. Let’s see through the lies and stand strong for the truth. God bless America.

Related links:

• Tariffs Will Work!
• Stay The Course Trilogy
• Media Research Center finds 92% negative coverage of Trump in first 100 days
• Ronald Reagan’s 1982 Slump vs. Trump’s Current Numbers

 

[MAGA]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1945975354625282532

View: https://x.com/waltjordan/status/1945975354625282532

 

[MAGA]

Are Some Pollsters Juking Trump's Poll Numbers, Or Is Something Else Going On?

Are Some Pollsters Juking Trump's Poll Numbers, Or Is Something Else Going On?

Exploring the chaos in Trump's poll numbers and the implications for his approval ratings.

hotair.com

There's something really, really, REALLY weird going on with Trump's poll numbers.

Not that there is anything exactly new about that, but I was gobsmacked when I saw Gallup's latest numbers and recalled having seen other horrible polls for the president, so I decided to do a little digging.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1948438635675619527

View: https://x.com/Gallup/status/1948438635675619527



If Gallup's numbers are right, Trump is being pulled by a political undertow that will be hard to swim against. When I read the poll, it wasn't quite a gut punch, but it made me wonder whether I needed to give myself a reality check. No, I knew I needed a reality check, because it is stupid to be willfully blind to data.

And what did I find? Absolute chaos, and it is not entirely based on the political leanings of the pollsters, although there certainly appears to be a liberal bias to many of the polls.




As you can see from the RealClearPolitics chart, the over/under for Trump's approval is -6.6, which has the ring of truth about it. Trump has taken an absolute beating in the press, and he starts with a lower base than almost any other national politician. A lot of people who might give slack to somebody with a less "in your face" style wake up in the morning with gritted teeth knowing Trump is president.

And Trump works hard to keep them angry. He keeps his own base ginned up by infuriating liberals, and a lot of moderates absolutely hate his style.


To me, it's no surprise that he is underwater, even after his string of victories that you and I are applauding.

Now look at Gallup. It has a -21% over/under. That, to me, seems implausible. So implausible, given the other polls' numbers, that it looks as credible as an Ann Selzer poll predicting that Harris would win Iowa in a landslide.

If Gallup were the only outlier, though, you could assume that it was just a bad poll, even though it was conducted over a significant period of time. A bad sample for some reason.

Except...look again at the RCP chart, and a pattern emerges. Trump's poll numbers aren't spread out in anything like a Bell Curve around the average. It's more like a bimodal curve, where there are two peaks instead of one. If the errors that are natural to polls--that's why they have a +/- margin of error, assuming randomly distributed polling errors--were the variable then you would expect a one-peak bell curve.

And that's not what we see.

Instead, you see some polls--like the Wall Street Journal, Emerson, Trafalgar, Fox, Rasmussen, and Quantus congregating around one average, and YouGov, CBS, Atlas Intel, Reuters, and Gallup around a much higher disapproval rating. That means the RCP average is not representative of the data, except in a minimal way. There really are TWO averages in that chart. The RCP average is effectively the average of two separate sets of data that obviously are apples and oranges, not different apples.


What's going on here? You could assign the problem to partisan leans of the pollsters, but then how do you explain Atlas Intel--which has been remarkably accurate? While it is not Gallup-level bad for Trump, it is in the group least favorable to Trump. Conversely, some of the better polls for Trump are not from "conservative"-leaning pollsters.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1948427986358714587

View: https://x.com/dcoxpolls/status/1948427986358714587



Then there is the Pew data I just wrote about this morning, which shows Republicans and Democrats are pretty evenly tied in party preference--far more so than in 2017, when Democrats dominated. Democrats are losing core constituencies--bleeding support, actually--and have taken a far worse beating than Trump.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1948086755493904538

View: https://x.com/KSoltisAnderson/status/1948086755493904538



There has been--according to Pew, which is hardly a Republican-leaning pollster--a 7-point swing against the Democrats and an actual revolt among men against the party. Are people who have moved from Democrat to Republican simultaneously hating on Trump?


It is true that support for a party is not the same as support for the president, and it is also true that the number of Independents is significant and not included in the party totals, but such a considerable divergence is...unexpected.

In other words, the data doesn't all add up without making some improbable assumptions.

Normally, I would make some snarky comment based on my take on the issue, but I am not sure what to make of all this other than that there is a problem--and not a problem solved by averaging out the polls as RCP tries to. This is not a knock on RCP--it's an observation that the averaging assumes a Bell Curve distribution of errors, and we have a bimodal curve here.

So I am perplexed.

 

[Jade Dragon]

I'm all out of hot cocoa and head pats to give you, Terry. So I'll save bursting your bubble for someone with more fucks to give.

 

[MAGA]

Hey Jade Fag-on, Here is a source you should like:

Rolling Stone:
"Congressional Dems’ Approval Hits Record Low"
Only 19 percent of respondents to a new Quinnipiac University poll approve of the way the the party is handling their job in Congress
By Ryan Bort, Nikki McCann Ramirez July 16, 2025

Congressional Dems' Approval Hits Record Low

Only 19 percent of respondents to a new Quinnipiac University poll approve of the way Democrats in Congress are doing their job.

www.rollingstone.com

 

[Guno צְבִי]

Hey Jade Fag-on, Here is a source you should like:

Rolling Stone:
"Congressional Dems’ Approval Hits Record Low"
Only 19 percent of respondents to a new Quinnipiac University poll approve of the way the the party is handling their job in Congress
By Ryan Bort, Nikki McCann Ramirez July 16, 2025

Congressional Dems' Approval Hits Record Low

Only 19 percent of respondents to a new Quinnipiac University poll approve of the way Democrats in Congress are doing their job.

www.rollingstone.com

^^^^^^^^^^^^

The guy who lied about serving and can't keep a job

 

[MAGA]

Trump's Poll Numbers
Another Great American Brief

Trump's Poll Numbers

Buckle Up and Prepare for Greatness & Even More Winning

terryobriengreatamerican.substack.com

Dear Great Americans and patriots, they say that there is only one poll that matters: The election. Well, we just had an election, and Trump won!
The poll numbers you see today, the ones the liberal media loves to trumpet as the "end of Trump," are nothing more than a manufactured narrative. They’re the product of a biased press corps that has been hell-bent on tearing down President Trump from the moment he descended that escalator in 2015. The mainstream media—you know, the same folks who called him a Russian agent for four years only to admit it was all a hoax—are now trying to convince you that the American people have turned on him. But let me tell you, the American people are smarter than that. The press never seems to learn that.

• Let’s talk about the polls: These so-called "scientific" surveys are often skewed, oversampling Democrats and underrepresenting the silent majority—the hardworking, patriotic Americans who don’t have time to sit around answering pollsters’ questions. Remember 2016? The polls had Hillary Clinton winning in a landslide. How’d that turn out? Exactly. Polls are a tool of the establishment to shape public opinion, not reflect it.
• Negative Fake News: It’s relentless. Every day, it’s the same old song: "Trump’s a dictator," "Trump’s ruining the economy," "Trump’s dividing the country." But here’s the truth: President Trump delivered the strongest economy in modern history before the pandemic. Unemployment was at record lows, wages were rising, and America was respected on the world stage again. The economy is cyclical, and when it rebounds as it will—so will Trump’s numbers. Mark my words.
  A recent analysis by the Media Research Center has revealed that 92% of the major network media coverage of President Donald Trump during his first 100 days in office was negative. People watch this fake news, some believe it, and the polls reflect that. In an age when the legacy media now lies with wild abandon, not even pretending to be fair journalists, polls cannot be trusted. There is one poll we can trust though, we took it a little over one hundred days ago. It was called an election, and Trump won.
• False narratives: From the Russia collusion hoax to the January 6th "insurrection" myth, the left and their media allies have been peddling lies to discredit Trump. But the American people see through it. They know that Trump fights for them—for lower taxes, for secure borders, for law and order. When the economy turns around, and it will, they’ll remember who put America First.
• Just Imagine: Imagine you are in a gardening contest, and you get judged on your garden two days after planting the seeds. That would be insane. Some people are judging the economy while Trump policies have not even had a chance to kick in yet. Trump is not just tinkering around thee edges like all other past president have, he is trying to achieve massive, fundamental change that will put America back on the correct course. That takes time! People need to sit back and be patient. It took two years for Ronald Reagan's policies to really bear big fruit.
• Winning: Look how fast President Trump fixed the broken border. He is a man of his word and he keeps his promises. He is protecting women from men in sports, ending DEI racism, revitalizing the military, and so much more. He will fix the economy too. Just give his plans time to work. It could take two, even three years.

As Ronald Reagan once said, "The future doesn't belong to the fainthearted; it belongs to the brave." Stay the Course! Trust Trump! Be brave, folks. Let’s see through the lies and stand strong for the truth. God bless America.

Related links:

• Tariffs Will Work!
• Stay The Course Trilogy
• Media Research Center finds 92% negative coverage of Trump in first 100 days
• Ronald Reagan’s 1982 Slump vs. Trump’s Current Numbers

I love always being right.
Thank you God for that gift.

 

[MAGA]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1949159368185831591

View: https://x.com/gatewaypundit/status/1949159368185831591

 

[Jade Dragon]

^^^^^^^^^^^^

The guy who lied about serving and can't keep a job

Don't forget that he lied about being a woman when he's actually a fat, obnoxious dude.

 

[Guno צְבִי]

I'm all out of hot cocoa and head pats to give you, Terry. So I'll save bursting your bubble for someone with more fucks to give.

He can't even keep a low level job

 

[Jade Dragon]

He can't even keep a low level job

That explains why he's posting at 4 in the morning.

 

[Guno צְבִי]

That explains why he's posting at 4 in the morning.

He is good to laugh at

 

[Hawkeye10]

Public Polls R Fiction.

 

[Jade Dragon]

He is good to laugh at

He reminds me of one of those clown punching bags I had when I was a kid. If he wants to play that clown, I'm ready to play my part.

 

[Tbird19482]

He reminds me of one of those clown punching bags I had when I was a kid. If he wants to play that clown, I'm ready to play my part.

like I said shouldn't the GA stand for giant ASSHOLE?

 

[MAGA]

like I said shouldn't the GA stand for giant ASSHOLE?

Just because your pimp stretched yours out does not mean the rest of us are homo bitches like you

 

[MAGA]

Trump's Poll Numbers
Another Great American Brief

Trump's Poll Numbers

Buckle Up and Prepare for Greatness & Even More Winning

terryobriengreatamerican.substack.com

Dear Great Americans and patriots, they say that there is only one poll that matters: The election. Well, we just had an election, and Trump won!
The poll numbers you see today, the ones the liberal media loves to trumpet as the "end of Trump," are nothing more than a manufactured narrative. They’re the product of a biased press corps that has been hell-bent on tearing down President Trump from the moment he descended that escalator in 2015. The mainstream media—you know, the same folks who called him a Russian agent for four years only to admit it was all a hoax—are now trying to convince you that the American people have turned on him. But let me tell you, the American people are smarter than that. The press never seems to learn that.

• Let’s talk about the polls: These so-called "scientific" surveys are often skewed, oversampling Democrats and underrepresenting the silent majority—the hardworking, patriotic Americans who don’t have time to sit around answering pollsters’ questions. Remember 2016? The polls had Hillary Clinton winning in a landslide. How’d that turn out? Exactly. Polls are a tool of the establishment to shape public opinion, not reflect it.
• Negative Fake News: It’s relentless. Every day, it’s the same old song: "Trump’s a dictator," "Trump’s ruining the economy," "Trump’s dividing the country." But here’s the truth: President Trump delivered the strongest economy in modern history before the pandemic. Unemployment was at record lows, wages were rising, and America was respected on the world stage again. The economy is cyclical, and when it rebounds as it will—so will Trump’s numbers. Mark my words.
  A recent analysis by the Media Research Center has revealed that 92% of the major network media coverage of President Donald Trump during his first 100 days in office was negative. People watch this fake news, some believe it, and the polls reflect that. In an age when the legacy media now lies with wild abandon, not even pretending to be fair journalists, polls cannot be trusted. There is one poll we can trust though, we took it a little over one hundred days ago. It was called an election, and Trump won.
• False narratives: From the Russia collusion hoax to the January 6th "insurrection" myth, the left and their media allies have been peddling lies to discredit Trump. But the American people see through it. They know that Trump fights for them—for lower taxes, for secure borders, for law and order. When the economy turns around, and it will, they’ll remember who put America First.
• Just Imagine: Imagine you are in a gardening contest, and you get judged on your garden two days after planting the seeds. That would be insane. Some people are judging the economy while Trump policies have not even had a chance to kick in yet. Trump is not just tinkering around thee edges like all other past president have, he is trying to achieve massive, fundamental change that will put America back on the correct course. That takes time! People need to sit back and be patient. It took two years for Ronald Reagan's policies to really bear big fruit.
• Winning: Look how fast President Trump fixed the broken border. He is a man of his word and he keeps his promises. He is protecting women from men in sports, ending DEI racism, revitalizing the military, and so much more. He will fix the economy too. Just give his plans time to work. It could take two, even three years.

As Ronald Reagan once said, "The future doesn't belong to the fainthearted; it belongs to the brave." Stay the Course! Trust Trump! Be brave, folks. Let’s see through the lies and stand strong for the truth. God bless America.

Related links:

• Tariffs Will Work!
• Stay The Course Trilogy
• Media Research Center finds 92% negative coverage of Trump in first 100 days
• Ronald Reagan’s 1982 Slump vs. Trump’s Current Numbers

Another Great American winner

 

[MAGA]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1940054727745798374

View: https://x.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1940054727745798374

 

[MAGA]

Trump's Poll Numbers
Another Great American Brief

Trump's Poll Numbers

Buckle Up and Prepare for Greatness & Even More Winning

terryobriengreatamerican.substack.com

Dear Great Americans and patriots, they say that there is only one poll that matters: The election. Well, we just had an election, and Trump won!
The poll numbers you see today, the ones the liberal media loves to trumpet as the "end of Trump," are nothing more than a manufactured narrative. They’re the product of a biased press corps that has been hell-bent on tearing down President Trump from the moment he descended that escalator in 2015. The mainstream media—you know, the same folks who called him a Russian agent for four years only to admit it was all a hoax—are now trying to convince you that the American people have turned on him. But let me tell you, the American people are smarter than that. The press never seems to learn that.

• Let’s talk about the polls: These so-called "scientific" surveys are often skewed, oversampling Democrats and underrepresenting the silent majority—the hardworking, patriotic Americans who don’t have time to sit around answering pollsters’ questions. Remember 2016? The polls had Hillary Clinton winning in a landslide. How’d that turn out? Exactly. Polls are a tool of the establishment to shape public opinion, not reflect it.
• Negative Fake News: It’s relentless. Every day, it’s the same old song: "Trump’s a dictator," "Trump’s ruining the economy," "Trump’s dividing the country." But here’s the truth: President Trump delivered the strongest economy in modern history before the pandemic. Unemployment was at record lows, wages were rising, and America was respected on the world stage again. The economy is cyclical, and when it rebounds as it will—so will Trump’s numbers. Mark my words.
  A recent analysis by the Media Research Center has revealed that 92% of the major network media coverage of President Donald Trump during his first 100 days in office was negative. People watch this fake news, some believe it, and the polls reflect that. In an age when the legacy media now lies with wild abandon, not even pretending to be fair journalists, polls cannot be trusted. There is one poll we can trust though, we took it a little over one hundred days ago. It was called an election, and Trump won.
• False narratives: From the Russia collusion hoax to the January 6th "insurrection" myth, the left and their media allies have been peddling lies to discredit Trump. But the American people see through it. They know that Trump fights for them—for lower taxes, for secure borders, for law and order. When the economy turns around, and it will, they’ll remember who put America First.
• Just Imagine: Imagine you are in a gardening contest, and you get judged on your garden two days after planting the seeds. That would be insane. Some people are judging the economy while Trump policies have not even had a chance to kick in yet. Trump is not just tinkering around thee edges like all other past president have, he is trying to achieve massive, fundamental change that will put America back on the correct course. That takes time! People need to sit back and be patient. It took two years for Ronald Reagan's policies to really bear big fruit.
• Winning: Look how fast President Trump fixed the broken border. He is a man of his word and he keeps his promises. He is protecting women from men in sports, ending DEI racism, revitalizing the military, and so much more. He will fix the economy too. Just give his plans time to work. It could take two, even three years.

As Ronald Reagan once said, "The future doesn't belong to the fainthearted; it belongs to the brave." Stay the Course! Trust Trump! Be brave, folks. Let’s see through the lies and stand strong for the truth. God bless America.

Related links:

• Tariffs Will Work!
• Stay The Course Trilogy
• Media Research Center finds 92% negative coverage of Trump in first 100 days
• Ronald Reagan’s 1982 Slump vs. Trump’s Current Numbers

https://twitter.com/x/status/1949184704969617470

View: https://x.com/BrilynHollyhand/status/1949184704969617470

 

[MAGA]

Meanwhile . . .