What are economists saying about Trump's proposed tariffs?

Diogenes

Nemo me impune lacessit
Let's take a look, shall we?

Trump’s Most Misunderstood Policy Proposal​

Economists aren’t telling the whole truth about tariffs.

Their first mistake is to consider only the costs of tariffs, and not the benefits. Traditionally, an economist assessing a proposed market intervention begins by searching for a market failure, typically an “externality,” in need of correction. Pollution is the quintessential illustration. A factory owner will not consider the widespread harms of dumping pollutants in a river when deciding how much to spend on pollution controls. A policy that forces him to pay for polluting will correct this market failure—colloquially by “making it his problem.” It imposes a cost on the polluter in the pursuit of benefits for everyone else.

Tariffs address a different externality. The basic premise is that domestic production has value beyond what market prices reflect. A corporation deciding whether to close a factory in Ohio and relocate manufacturing to China, or a consumer deciding whether to stop buying a made-in-America brand in favor of cheaper imports, will probably not consider the broader importance of making things in America. To the individual actor, the logical choice is to do whatever saves the most money. But those individual decisions add up to collective economic, political, and societal harms. To the extent that tariffs combat those harms, they accordingly bring collective benefits.

Some opponents of tariffs ignore those benefits because they don’t believe that manufacturing things domestically matters. For example, Adam Posen, the president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, has called Trump’s proposal “lunacy” and “horrifying.” But he has also dismissed concern for American manufacturing as “the general fetish for keeping white males of low education outside the cities in the powerful positions they’re in.” Similarly, Michael Strain, the head economist at the American Enterprise Institute, believes that tariffs “would be a disaster for the U.S. economy.” In his view, the United States cannot be a manufacturing center again, “and we should not want to be.”

These arguments may be internally coherent, but they are wrong


Oh, dear.
 

Harris says Trump tariffs will cost Americans $4k/year. Economists are skeptical.​



While economists who spoke to USA TODAY said Harris' characterization of the tariffs may be an overestimate, most said Trump’s aggressive tariff policy could increase prices. But by how much and for how long is more complicated and debatable. The range of forecasts of what the proposed tariffs would cost Americans is wide, typically between negligible and $2,600 a year. A minority even argue Americans will come out ahead in the longer term.

“I’m somewhere in the middle,” said Kent Smetters, a University of Pennsylvania Wharton School professor and faculty director of the Penn Wharton Budget Model.

Forecasts in the thousands make rigid assumptions that aren't necessarily true, some economists said. For example, the Peterson Institute for International Economics, which estimates import taxes would cost the average family $2,600 a year, assumes the entire cost of the tariff is passed on to consumers or domestic producers will raise the price of their goods by the tariff amount, which would allow less efficient production but expand their profits. A study by the nonpartisan Tax Policy Center, which said the tariffs would lower the average post-tax incomes of American households by about $1,800, also assumed consumers would pay the entire tariff amount.

"Using that strong assumption, that would be an overestimation of the direct impact on consumers," said Brian Marks, executive director of the Entrepreneurship and Innovation Program at the University of New Haven in Connecticut.

Those estimates aren’t based on “good economics,” Smetters said.




Oh, dear, oh, dear.
 
It would cost American consumers money. How much, is a guess but a huge amount of goods and services come from Canada, China, and Mexico. They are by far our biggest trading partners. They all say they would retaliate. Where does it stop?
 
It would cost American consumers money. How much, is a guess but a huge amount of goods and services come from Canada, China, and Mexico. They are by far our biggest trading partners. They all say they would retaliate. Where does it stop?

Maybe it doesn't even start.

Ever think of that?
 
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