Who Knows Math? Probability Question (Dixie need not apply)

Dixie said:
Wrong answer. If you have odds of 6 single and separate events occurring like you posted, the chance of them all happening is going to be in the billions or trillions, not thousands. What an idiot.:rolleyes:
Click to expand...
They have a high probability of happening already. It would depend on the probability level of each happening to begin with.

Even the Powerball isn't in the "Billions or Trillions" it is in the 100s of Millions to happen, but the probability against each to occur is much higher than what Grind showed here.

Taken that the events do not necessarily require to follow in the exact order, here the answer is .000372665... which is a probability in the 1s of thousands rather than billions...

This is, of course, assuming that the probabilities originally given were the probability of the event to occur rather than the negative probability...

The probability is 1/3728

It's been a loooong time. And I'm doing this quick and half drunk...
 
Watermark said:
Well let's see.

Do you mean like the probability of you rolling a 10000 sided die, and the numbers 2315, 2877, 3807, 2429, 1882, and 3216 coming out in perfect succession?

Yeah. That's going to be in the millions or billions grind.
Click to expand...

no. they are not OUT of a number that is large. For a 10000 die each one of those numbers would be 1/10000th of a chance. My numbers are already converted to percentages.
 
Damocles said:
They have a high probability of happening already. It would depend on the probability level of each happening to begin with.

Even the Powerball isn't in the "Billions or Trillions" it is in the 100s of Millions to happen, but the probability against each to occur is much higher than what Grind showed here.

Taken that the events do not necessarily require to follow in the exact order, here the answer is .000372665... which is a probability in the 10s of thousands rather than billions...

This is, of course, assuming that the probabilities originally given were the probability of the event to occur rather than the negative probability...
Click to expand...

So 1/2660.
 
Grind said:
no. they are not OUT of a number that is large. For a 10000 die each one of those numbers would be 1/10000th of a chance. My numbers are already converted to percentages.
Click to expand...

OH OK.

Then I guess you would multiply.

Whatever.

Or something similar.

I'll tell you whenever I get a degree in math, and I'm not planning on doing that ever.
 
Damocles said:
They have a high probability of happening already. It would depend on the probability level of each happening to begin with.

Even the Powerball isn't in the "Billions or Trillions" it is in the 100s of Millions to happen, but the probability against each to occur is much higher than what Grind showed here.

Taken that the events do not necessarily require to follow in the exact order, here the answer is .000372665... which is a probability in the 10s of thousands rather than billions...

This is, of course, assuming that the probabilities originally given were the probability of the event to occur rather than the negative probability...
Click to expand...

that decimal derives from this fraction:

372766527/1000000000000

which reduces to the fraction beefy stated?
 
You have 6 events, none of which are probable to happen. The odds of all six defying the odds and happening is astronomical. With each successive event, the odds of the next event happening and beating the odds becomes even greater. The formula is not going to be something as simple as multiplying the raw odds for each event. JMHO, I suck at math too. ;)
 
Dixie said:
You have 6 events, none of which are probable to happen. The odds of all six defying the odds and happening is astronomical. With each successive event, the odds of the next event happening and beating the odds becomes even greater. The formula is not going to be something as simple as multiplying the raw odds for each event. JMHO, I suck at math too. ;)
Click to expand...

Dixie,

Stop embarrassing yourself. Please. Just leave. Let me give you a little advice: DON'T EVER SAY ANYTHING INVOLVING MATH OR LOGIC EVER. You will be a much happier man. No more "great riddles" to solve or anything like that, it'll just be you and your pretty cousin talking about how liberals are ruining America by giving you too many freedoms.
 
Dixie said:
You have 6 events, none of which are probable to happen. The odds of all six defying the odds and happening is astronomical. With each successive event, the odds of the next event happening and beating the odds becomes even greater. The formula is not going to be something as simple as multiplying the raw odds for each event. JMHO, I suck at math too. ;)
Click to expand...
Each are highly likely to happen. And again they do not necessarily have to happen in order. If they must happen in order this is increased by a factor of 720 which reduces your odds of success.

The lowest chance of success he gave was very close to 1 in 5. One was nearly 1 in 2...
 
Watermark said:
Dixie,

Stop embarrassing yourself. Please. Just leave. Let me give you a little advice: DON'T EVER SAY ANYTHING INVOLVING MATH OR LOGIC EVER. You will be a much happier man. No more "great riddles" to solve or anything like that, it'll just be you and your pretty cousin talking about how liberals are ruining America by giving you too many freedoms.
Click to expand...

Lololols... Hey Waterhead, why do you have such a long ass signature full of meaningless bullshit? It confuses me, I don't know where your meaningless bullshit post ends and your meaningless bullshit signature begins.

Oh, and don't ever use Liberals and Freedoms in the same sentence, it's bad grammar, didn't they teach you that in Pinhead school?
 
Damocles said:
Each are highly likely to happen. And again they do not necessarily have to happen in order. If they must happen in order this is increased by a factor of 720 which reduces your odds of success.

The lowest chance of success he gave was very close to 1 in 5. One was nearly 1 in 2...
Click to expand...

Right, so .1882, is nearly 1 in 5 no matter how you slice it, and so the multiplication right?
 
Lololols... Hey Waterhead, why do you have such a long ass signature full of meaningless bullshit? It confuses me, I don't know where your meaningless bullshit post ends and your meaningless bullshit signature begins.
Click to expand...

It's a distortion of a quote by George Orwell from his essay "Politics and the English Language":

Consider for instance some comfortable English professor defending Russian totalitarianism. He cannot say outright, "I believe in killing off your opponents when you can get good results by doing so." Probably, therefore, he will say something like this:

While freely conceding that the Soviet regime exhibits certain features which the humanitarian may be inclined to deplore, we must, I think, agree that a certain curtailment of the right to political opposition is an unavoidable concomitant of transitional periods, and that the rigours which the Russian people have been called upon to undergo have been amply justified in the sphere of concrete achievement.

Oh, and don't ever use Liberals and Freedoms in the same sentence, it's bad grammar, didn't they teach you that in Pinhead school?
Click to expand...

Conservative teachers told me freedom wasn't worth a damn and we should all worship gawd or die, but I didn't listen to them. You did. And all the other white people in your school.

The 500 or so black people in the single room shack bussed 100 miles from where they lived (which was right next to your school) probably were told the something different. I don't know.
 
Damocles said:
Each are highly likely to happen. And again they do not necessarily have to happen in order. If they must happen in order this is increased by a factor of 720 which reduces your odds of success.

The lowest chance of success he gave was very close to 1 in 5. One was nearly 1 in 2...
Click to expand...

Damo, am I missing something?

.2315 =23% chance of it happening and 77% chance it won't.
.2877 = 28% chance of it happening and 72% chance it won't.
.3807 = 38% chance of it happening and 62% chance it won't.
.2429 = 24% chance of it happening and 76% chance it won't.
.1882 = 18% chance of it happening and 82% chance it won't.
.3216 = 32% chance of it happening and 68% chance it won't.

6 Events and none of them have a favorable chance of happening individually, the odds of them ALL happening, is very high. I have no idea of how you would work out the formula. It may not be billions or trillions, but my guess is, it is greater than 1 in 3760, or whatever. Maybe 1 in 376000.
 
Dixie said:
Damo, am I missing something?

.2315 =23% chance of it happening and 77% chance it won't.
.2877 = 28% chance of it happening and 72% chance it won't.
.3807 = 38% chance of it happening and 62% chance it won't.
.2429 = 24% chance of it happening and 76% chance it won't.
.1882 = 18% chance of it happening and 82% chance it won't.
.3216 = 32% chance of it happening and 68% chance it won't.

6 Events and none of them have a favorable chance of happening individually, the odds of them ALL happening, is very high. I have no idea of how you would work out the formula. It may not be billions or trillions, but my guess is, it is greater than 1 in 3760, or whatever. Maybe 1 in 376000.
Click to expand...

A 38% change is unfavorable? Maybe it ain't a majority but it certainly isn't infinitesimal either.
 
Damocles said:
Correct. I just got stupid on the conversion at the end...

D'oh!
Click to expand...

So, just so a certain poster here understands, if something happens .1882 of the time, it will happen less than 1 time out of 5, but more than once out of 6 times. So it can be used as a multiple, and because it occurs relatively frequently, it is not 1 in a billion that something like that.
 
Watermark said:
A 38% change is unfavorable? Maybe it ain't a majority but it certainly isn't infinitesimal either.
Click to expand...

That is just for one event, there are 6 and all of them are less likely to happen than to happen. The odds of 6 unlikely events all happening is great. I will say, after further reflection, the fact that they do not have to happen in succession is a bit more favorable to the numbers Damo posted, but I still think he forgot to carry a decimal or something.
 
Dixie said:
That is just for one event, there are 6 and all of them are less likely to happen than to happen. The odds of 6 unlikely events all happening is great. I will say, after further reflection, the fact that they do not have to happen in succession is a bit more favorable to the numbers Damo posted, but I still think he forgot to carry a decimal or something.
Click to expand...
Hence it moves to the thousands. Each of them have less than 1 in 10 against.


Again, the odds to win the Powerball is only 1 in 146,107,962, and each of those events have a much higher against average than these do. Each of these six are not very rare at all which reduces the odds against considerably.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top