Why Donald Trump may win a second term

dukkha

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Sally Tedrow voted for Barack Obama for president in 2008. Four years later, the retiree and devoted Methodist from Keokuk, Iowa, did it again.

More than 600 miles away, in Jefferson, Ohio, Bonnie Smith was a life-long Democrat, one who supported Bernie Sanders in the 2016 primaries.

No one would mistake either of them for hardline conservatives, or even Republicans.

But in November 2016, Tedrow and Smith, along with nearly 63 million other Americans, did something that shocked the world. They helped elect Donald J. Trump as president of the United States.

How could Tedrow switch from Obama to Trump in four years? How could Smith go from Sanders to Trump in six months? The factors that drove middle of America voters to back an unpredictable, often erratic billionaire from Manhattan are explored in a new book by journalist Salena Zito and Republican advertising executive Brad Todd.

In "The Great Revolt: Inside the Populist Coalition Reshaping American Politics," Zito and Todd give Trump voters something they don't often receive from the news media or the entertainment industry: Respect.

For that reason, I suspect most readers who pick up the book already will be happily onboard the Trump train. Finally, they'll say, someone gets it.

Yet a much different audience -- those who recoil at the thought of Trump winning a second term two years from now -- has the most to gain in scouring "The Great Revolt" for its insights on why about 6 million Americans switched their votes from Obama in 2012 to Trump in 2016.

Zito was a Pittsburgh-based political reporter in July 2016 when she set out to visit every county in Pennsylvania.
Traveling the backroads, she came across houses, barns and even a horse with "Trump" painted on the side.
She saw homemade "Trump for President" signs (when voters care enough to create their own advertising for a candidate it's a good indication of their fervency).
And she talked to enough Trump supporters in diners and bed-and-breakfasts to be convinced that the Republican nominee was about to pull off an enormous upset -- in Pennsylvania and across the nation.

"I took a lot of heat on social media for predicting a Trump win," Zito told me in a phone interview.

She was right of course. Not only did Trump become the first Republican presidential candidate since 1988 to win Pennsylvania, he also defeated Hillary Clinton in five other states -- Florida, Iowa, Ohio, Michigan and Wisconsin -- that Obama won twice.

That's history. What about the future?

Zito said there are strong indications that the populist and conservative coalition that lifted Trump into office has held together, and the factors that pushed voters such as Tedrow and Smith to take a chance on a maverick businessman remain in play.

"We haven't moved from that moment as a country," Zito said.

One thing many Trump voters have in common, Zito said, is a "skepticism of all things big."

They don't trust the traditional news media, major corporations, the entertainment industry or the two major political parties. When Trump takes on everyone from the NFL to CNN, he's leveraging that distrust to his advantage.

When celebrities like Samantha Bee and Robert De Niro crudely attack Trump and his children, it signals to the president's supporters that he's still fighting for them.

Others are starting to pick up on that dynamic. New York Times columnist Frank Bruni, about as distantly removed from a Trump supporter as Paris, Ill., is from Paris, France, castigated Bee and De Niro this week for stumbling into the president's trap.
"(De Niro) made the blue wave look iffier and Trump 2020 stronger," Bruni wrote.

Why does harshly insulting Trump actually help him? Because Trump's supporters see themselves and their values as the real targets of elites' disdain.

"People have been craving respect," Zito said. "They've been craving that Hollywood not make them the butt of jokes."

One other important lesson Trump's critics should take from "The Great Revolt": He's a symptom, not the cause, of the deep frustrations that pushed him into office.

"People are still scratching their heads about why people voted for Donald Trump," Jonathan Kochie, a bar and restaurant owner in Freeland, Pa., said in the book.
"Well, here is the thing: we voted for ourselves, and that is the thing they missed. That is the thing they still miss. I turn on the television and they talk about how he brags, or this or that about him, and they still don't talk to us. They still don't hear us. They still don't get us. We are a part of America too, and we are a part of America that wants to be part of something that takes everyone forward.

The evidence overwhelmingly suggests that Jonathan Kochie is right about that. And it's questionable whether progressives want or are even willing to try to understand people such as Kochie, Sally Tedrow and Bonnie Smith.

The answer may well determine whether Donald Trump shocks the world again in 2020.
 
He didn't even really win one term.

He lost the popular vote by millions, and thus does not have the consent of the governed. And I have my doubts about the legitimacy of the electoral college fluke he pulled off, because to the best of my knowledge the Republican legislatures in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania systematically and aggressively pursued voter disenfranchisement, made conscious efforts to depress the vote, and used every undemocratic means reasonably at their disposal to hand an electoral college victory to an obese Reality TV entertainer.
 
He will probably win if he runs again, but I doubt he will. The reason he would win, is because the DNC seems to want to double and sometimes triple down on the same sort of stuff that alienates them from Main Street in all those red and violet places. If he ran again, and the DNC were to nominate someone like Mark Warner, Trump would lose. If the DNC nominates Terry Macualiff (whom I say is the most likely nominee at this point), Trump would win. The DNC needs to go to a moderate person with a solid record. While Warner in the Senate has been a DNC cultist, he was actually a fairly moderate Governor who had to make a bunch of really tough fiscal choices that would have appeal to moderate and center-rights.
 
unreal . they will never, ever get it. they cling to excuses and look for boogeymen/
try a little introspection as to why 6 million voters switched from Obama to Trump
 
Sally Tedrow voted for Barack Obama for president in 2008. Four years later, the retiree and devoted Methodist from Keokuk, Iowa, did it again.

More than 600 miles away, in Jefferson, Ohio, Bonnie Smith was a life-long Democrat, one who supported Bernie Sanders in the 2016 primaries.

No one would mistake either of them for hardline conservatives, or even Republicans.

But in November 2016, Tedrow and Smith, along with nearly 63 million other Americans, did something that shocked the world. They helped elect Donald J. Trump as president of the United States.

How could Tedrow switch from Obama to Trump in four years? How could Smith go from Sanders to Trump in six months? The factors that drove middle of America voters to back an unpredictable, often erratic billionaire from Manhattan are explored in a new book by journalist Salena Zito and Republican advertising executive Brad Todd.

In "The Great Revolt: Inside the Populist Coalition Reshaping American Politics," Zito and Todd give Trump voters something they don't often receive from the news media or the entertainment industry: Respect.

For that reason, I suspect most readers who pick up the book already will be happily onboard the Trump train. Finally, they'll say, someone gets it.

Yet a much different audience -- those who recoil at the thought of Trump winning a second term two years from now -- has the most to gain in scouring "The Great Revolt" for its insights on why about 6 million Americans switched their votes from Obama in 2012 to Trump in 2016.

Zito was a Pittsburgh-based political reporter in July 2016 when she set out to visit every county in Pennsylvania.
Traveling the backroads, she came across houses, barns and even a horse with "Trump" painted on the side.
She saw homemade "Trump for President" signs (when voters care enough to create their own advertising for a candidate it's a good indication of their fervency).
And she talked to enough Trump supporters in diners and bed-and-breakfasts to be convinced that the Republican nominee was about to pull off an enormous upset -- in Pennsylvania and across the nation.

"I took a lot of heat on social media for predicting a Trump win," Zito told me in a phone interview.

She was right of course. Not only did Trump become the first Republican presidential candidate since 1988 to win Pennsylvania, he also defeated Hillary Clinton in five other states -- Florida, Iowa, Ohio, Michigan and Wisconsin -- that Obama won twice.

That's history. What about the future?

Zito said there are strong indications that the populist and conservative coalition that lifted Trump into office has held together, and the factors that pushed voters such as Tedrow and Smith to take a chance on a maverick businessman remain in play.

"We haven't moved from that moment as a country," Zito said.

One thing many Trump voters have in common, Zito said, is a "skepticism of all things big."

They don't trust the traditional news media, major corporations, the entertainment industry or the two major political parties. When Trump takes on everyone from the NFL to CNN, he's leveraging that distrust to his advantage.

When celebrities like Samantha Bee and Robert De Niro crudely attack Trump and his children, it signals to the president's supporters that he's still fighting for them.

Others are starting to pick up on that dynamic. New York Times columnist Frank Bruni, about as distantly removed from a Trump supporter as Paris, Ill., is from Paris, France, castigated Bee and De Niro this week for stumbling into the president's trap.

Why does harshly insulting Trump actually help him? Because Trump's supporters see themselves and their values as the real targets of elites' disdain.

"People have been craving respect," Zito said. "They've been craving that Hollywood not make them the butt of jokes."

One other important lesson Trump's critics should take from "The Great Revolt": He's a symptom, not the cause, of the deep frustrations that pushed him into office.

"People are still scratching their heads about why people voted for Donald Trump," Jonathan Kochie, a bar and restaurant owner in Freeland, Pa., said in the book.

The evidence overwhelmingly suggests that Jonathan Kochie is right about that. And it's questionable whether progressives want or are even willing to try to understand people such as Kochie, Sally Tedrow and Bonnie Smith.

The answer may well determine whether Donald Trump shocks the world again in 2020.

They won’t get it and never will. They don’t want to get it

Here is the fundamental reason why. In their heart of hearts they think they are better and smarter than Trump voters.

I think she is partially right about why he will win re-election. The other reason is he is actually doing what he said he would despite tremendous obstacles.

If the Presidential election were held today, Trump would win in a bigger landslide. He wouldn’t lose a state and would likely pick a few up.

I will go further and say that in 2020, Trump will get at least 15% of the black vote which will make it 10000% impossible for any democrat to win.
 
He didn't even really win one term.

He lost the popular vote by millions, and thus does not have the consent of the governed. And I have my doubts about the legitimacy of the electoral college fluke he pulled off, because to the best of my knowledge the Republican legislatures in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania systematically and aggressively pursued voter disenfranchisement, made conscious efforts to depress the vote, and used every undemocratic means reasonably at their disposal to hand an electoral college victory to an obese Reality TV entertainer.

.... a booming economy...

He's a shoe in.
 
He didn't even really win one term.

He lost the popular vote by millions, and thus does not have the consent of the governed. And I have my doubts about the legitimacy of the electoral college fluke he pulled off, because to the best of my knowledge the Republican legislatures in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania systematically and aggressively pursued voter disenfranchisement, made conscious efforts to depress the vote, and used every undemocratic means reasonably at their disposal to hand an electoral college victory to an obese Reality TV entertainer.

...from the warped mind of a whining fool who still can't accept the fact that Hilary lost.
 
Sally Tedrow voted for Barack Obama for president in 2008. Four years later, the retiree and devoted Methodist from Keokuk, Iowa, did it again.

More than 600 miles away, in Jefferson, Ohio, Bonnie Smith was a life-long Democrat, one who supported Bernie Sanders in the 2016 primaries.

No one would mistake either of them for hardline conservatives, or even Republicans.

But in November 2016, Tedrow and Smith, along with nearly 63 million other Americans, did something that shocked the world. They helped elect Donald J. Trump as president of the United States.

How could Tedrow switch from Obama to Trump in four years? How could Smith go from Sanders to Trump in six months? The factors that drove middle of America voters to back an unpredictable, often erratic billionaire from Manhattan are explored in a new book by journalist Salena Zito and Republican advertising executive Brad Todd.

In "The Great Revolt: Inside the Populist Coalition Reshaping American Politics," Zito and Todd give Trump voters something they don't often receive from the news media or the entertainment industry: Respect.

For that reason, I suspect most readers who pick up the book already will be happily onboard the Trump train. Finally, they'll say, someone gets it.

Yet a much different audience -- those who recoil at the thought of Trump winning a second term two years from now -- has the most to gain in scouring "The Great Revolt" for its insights on why about 6 million Americans switched their votes from Obama in 2012 to Trump in 2016.

Zito was a Pittsburgh-based political reporter in July 2016 when she set out to visit every county in Pennsylvania.
Traveling the backroads, she came across houses, barns and even a horse with "Trump" painted on the side.
She saw homemade "Trump for President" signs (when voters care enough to create their own advertising for a candidate it's a good indication of their fervency).
And she talked to enough Trump supporters in diners and bed-and-breakfasts to be convinced that the Republican nominee was about to pull off an enormous upset -- in Pennsylvania and across the nation.

"I took a lot of heat on social media for predicting a Trump win," Zito told me in a phone interview.

She was right of course. Not only did Trump become the first Republican presidential candidate since 1988 to win Pennsylvania, he also defeated Hillary Clinton in five other states -- Florida, Iowa, Ohio, Michigan and Wisconsin -- that Obama won twice.

That's history. What about the future?

Zito said there are strong indications that the populist and conservative coalition that lifted Trump into office has held together, and the factors that pushed voters such as Tedrow and Smith to take a chance on a maverick businessman remain in play.

"We haven't moved from that moment as a country," Zito said.

One thing many Trump voters have in common, Zito said, is a "skepticism of all things big."

They don't trust the traditional news media, major corporations, the entertainment industry or the two major political parties. When Trump takes on everyone from the NFL to CNN, he's leveraging that distrust to his advantage.

When celebrities like Samantha Bee and Robert De Niro crudely attack Trump and his children, it signals to the president's supporters that he's still fighting for them.

Others are starting to pick up on that dynamic. New York Times columnist Frank Bruni, about as distantly removed from a Trump supporter as Paris, Ill., is from Paris, France, castigated Bee and De Niro this week for stumbling into the president's trap.

Why does harshly insulting Trump actually help him? Because Trump's supporters see themselves and their values as the real targets of elites' disdain.

"People have been craving respect," Zito said. "They've been craving that Hollywood not make them the butt of jokes."

One other important lesson Trump's critics should take from "The Great Revolt": He's a symptom, not the cause, of the deep frustrations that pushed him into office.

"People are still scratching their heads about why people voted for Donald Trump," Jonathan Kochie, a bar and restaurant owner in Freeland, Pa., said in the book.

The evidence overwhelmingly suggests that Jonathan Kochie is right about that. And it's questionable whether progressives want or are even willing to try to understand people such as Kochie, Sally Tedrow and Bonnie Smith.

The answer may well determine whether Donald Trump shocks the world again in 2020.

sorry, won't happen, trump is tapped out in the redneck, peckerwood, uneducated cracka demographic
 
Demo'rats getting illegals and takers to vote- that's the only way he can lose...


So let me get this straight ... your Republican Governors (33) are soo Fucking Stupid, that they'll allow someone who just came into the US to Vote?

But you're going to blame 17 Governors ... ?
 
So let me get this straight ... your Republican Governors (33) are soo Fucking Stupid, that they'll allow someone who just came into the US to Vote?

But you're going to blame 17 Governors ... ?

You know this is happening in D controlled states, right?
 
...from the warped mind of a whining fool who still can't accept the fact that Hilary lost.

year a half of Trump bumping into walls and we don't accept that fact? Are you daft? He is alienating all our allies. and we have not noticed he is in charge? He is starting a tariff war that will have profound effects on us all. That meme about Hillary is not only wrong but ridiculous. Can you guys move on and discuss what he is doing? We sure are.
 
Trump is a conman, even better that I thought he was. He played the uneasy, insecure American voters like the political neophytes they are. They thought a vote for a self proclaimed billionaire was a vote for the people and the average man. How he convinced them of that is amazing. He had a tax cut , 83 percent of it went to the top 1 percent. They still think it was for them. His tariff are going to damage America workers, not help them. They applaud. A tariff simply increase prices Americans pay for goods. It is a tax on consumers. The people love it. Trump is alienating our long term allies and palling up with Putin and Kim. He admires leaders who run roughshod over the people. Trump said Kim was smart, funny and talented. And you rightys love it. the republican party is dead. it is trumlicans now. An you rightys are all going to be rich and not have to pay taxes.
 
Sally Tedrow voted for Barack Obama for president in 2008. Four years later, the retiree and devoted Methodist from Keokuk, Iowa, did it again.

But in 2016 the devoted Methodist voted for a serial adulterer and crude bully who is a byword for shameless lying?
O-kay.
 
try a little introspection as to why 6 million voters switched from Obama to Trump

If Hillary lost 6 million of Obama's votes, she must have picked up 6 million from somewhere else - because the totals are almost identical.

May we have the benefit of your introspection, please?
 
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