canceled.2021.1
#AMERICAISDEAD
State polls have been wildly inaccurate and do not reflect historical polling. For example, recent CNN poll has D+11 sample and Romney leading independents by 22 points yet the poll is tied. In 2008 which was a wave election for Obama democrat turnout was D+7. I don't know any rational person who thinks that the dems are going to increase their party ID by +4 this election cycle
The polls that have been showing Obama leads have been overstating their sample of early voters. For example in Ohio ACTUAL early vote counts show that 22% of Ohioans have votes, but some pollsters have as much as 40% in their samples. So they are oversampling 18% in early voting which is giving Obama a false lead
Enthusiasm is up on the GOP side
Enthusiasm is down on the democrat side
GOP ground game has improved substantially from 2008, in some cases not as good as the democrats overall but much improved
Cuyahoga county has almost a 15% dropoff in early voting from 2008. In case you didn't know, Obama won Cuyahoga Country by almost 40% in 2008. Now, there is no way Romney wins Cuyahoga county, but if there is a 15% reduction in Obama's base in that county, he doesn't have anywhere else in the state to make it up.
Like our debt, it is just math
The polls that have been showing Obama leads have been overstating their sample of early voters. For example in Ohio ACTUAL early vote counts show that 22% of Ohioans have votes, but some pollsters have as much as 40% in their samples. So they are oversampling 18% in early voting which is giving Obama a false lead
Enthusiasm is up on the GOP side
Enthusiasm is down on the democrat side
GOP ground game has improved substantially from 2008, in some cases not as good as the democrats overall but much improved
Cuyahoga county has almost a 15% dropoff in early voting from 2008. In case you didn't know, Obama won Cuyahoga Country by almost 40% in 2008. Now, there is no way Romney wins Cuyahoga county, but if there is a 15% reduction in Obama's base in that county, he doesn't have anywhere else in the state to make it up.
Like our debt, it is just math