Why Is The Stock Market Doing So Well In A Bad Recession?

Hello Geeko Sportivo,

You can thank the Federal Reserve Bank for the success in the stock market!

As long as bank rates are this low- The stock market is going to soar and roar!

It has created the world's largest bubble of money on earth!

A lot of the money riding on the stock market is BORROWED. That may become a problem some day as it has before- BUT SO FAR- SO GOOD.

And now that we are in recession- THE FRB rates will remain low- THE SUCCESS IN THE STOCK MARKET WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT PRESIDENTIAL ADMINISTRATION.

A lot of the money invested in stocks is borrowed? I thought that was illegal. Isn't that what caused the great crash of 1929?

If too much borrowed money is invested in stocks and a panic comes along then everybody will be trying to sell at once. If they can't recoup their base they won't be able to pay back the loans. Then the banks would fail. If there is a run on banks then the whole economy will crash hard.

Sounds dangerous.
 
Yeah, that's strange. Does DT have the fed wrapped around his little finger? Why are interest rates so low if the economy is doing so well? Well, the answer is the economy is NOT doing so well that they can raise interest rates. The economy is propped up by having the government subsidize it. Without the socialist government life support the economy would be in the ICU on a ventilator.

Yep. They lowered it when the markets crashed and everything shut down back in March. People who are laid off sure aren't profiting from their 401(k)s (assuming they haven't had to cash them in in order to pay their bills) when nothing is being added to them. Only the already-well-off, market investors, hedge fund managers, etc. are doing well. But Reichwingers can point at the markets and screech TRUMP! and think it means something.
 
The problem with a quick fix (for me) is the injustice. Some people did acquire wealth making widgets and were taxed along the way. If we tax capital gains
based on equivalent footing as income, then that will not occur, whereas if we place a wealth tax on the ants and hand it to the grasshoppers a righteous grievance is created.

Understood, but I'm not losing any sleep over this. We're talking about the top 1%, and they've been feasting on the returns of their booty for years. They won't even feel it. For people making widgets, this should be a welcome event, it will allow the peasants to purchase more goods. Something has to fix this. We can't rearrange deck chairs on the titanic any longer. We need to fix the hole in the boat.
 
Taxes should be based on the difficulty of a person's job?

A guy placing bets on securities that provides income for the pensions of state employees, union retirement programs, and teachers provides a pretty valuable service. Their entire retirement depends on that guy's bets. And, he probably works many more hours a week than the widget maker.

That's not what he's saying. What he's saying is that it makes no sense to tax gambling winnings at a lower rate than profits from actually producing something.
 
Understood, but I'm not losing any sleep over this. We're talking about the top 1%, and they've been feasting on the returns of their booty for years. They won't even feel it. For people making widgets, this should be a welcome event, it will allow the peasants to purchase more goods. Something has to fix this. We can't rearrange deck chairs on the titanic any longer. We need to fix the hole in the boat.

A one time wealth tax can't pay a 20 trillion deficit. A permanent income equivalent capital gains tax can over 10 years. Not like I've run the numbers.
 
Hello cawacko,

That's exactly what I was referring to. At the end of the day this is a stupid discussion but Poli's argument was you have no value until you sell. With a wealth tax you will pay taxes on that 'no value' based on the amount of holdings like you said.

It would behoove to make accurate quotes.

To reiterate: I said you have no money until you sell. I did not say stocks have no value.

I did not comment on whether a wealth tax would include stock holdings. There is no one-time wealth tax yet. There are proposals, with which I am not familiar of the details.
 
Consumer spending. The remainder is classified as 'savings', but would also include investments.

Well I'd argue real estate, and even stock investment creates economic activity. But I'm on board with the whole bottom up goal
at least until we right this listing ship.

Isn't estate taxes basically the same? We already have that, it hasn't fixed it.
 
Hello Flash,

Oh, OK. I see where you're coming from. It's a conditional statement that nobody loses anything, based on an assumption of nothing but rising values. In the case of a bicycle company stock increasing as a result of increased bike sales, the loss comes to auto companies that sell fewer units. And gasoline companies selling less product. And governments receiving lower revenue because lower gasoline sales also mean less gas tax being paid.

Nobody lost money due to my profit. If auto sales are down it is because consumers chose to buy more bicycles, not because I chose to sell at a profit. What if the bike stock went down when I chose to sell. Is somebody gaining because I lost money? Did auto company stock go up? No.

Some days the larger market increases or decreases. If most stocks go up who is losing (other than those individuals who chose to sell at a loss)?

Of course people lose and gain in the market. But one person does not lose because another gained. It is not that simple.

You are confusing overall market operations with individual sales and profits. I saw major losses in my retirement account over the years--1987, 9-11, etc. In 2008 my account dropped 40% and if I sold I would have lost big. I just stayed in and it eventually came back and surpassed my previous amount.

By the way, houses, cars and trucks, and gas prices have all been gaining despite the increase in bike sales.

Additionally, we should not discount that when stock is sold and the previous stock owner is paid in cash for the value of the stock sold, that cash comes from somewhere. It doesn't come out of thin air. Where does that cash come from? If somebody else bought the stock and the value of the stock continues to rise, that buyer is now out the case they paid. Unless that holding continues to rise until they sell, they could be the loser. If the consumer market opens back up again and people start buying more cars and gasoline and fewer bicycles, the bike company stock might fall. That buyer who bought just before it peaked would then be facing a loss of they sold their stock.

The money can come from a buyer, a market maker, a buyback from the company....


'Nobody lost anything' is quite the loaded statement. It is loaded with some assumptions that do not always hold true. As you say, people do lose money in the stock market.

The statement 'if the top 20% make 10% gain on their stocks, it does not take any money away from the bottom 80%' does not always hold true. It would be folly to think it does. We know that people do lose money in the stock market and there is no restriction on who loses. It can happen to anyone, including the lower 80%.

Not true. If somebody at the top makes a 10% gain it does not cause someone at the body to lose. If someone at the bottom sells at a loss that is why he loses, not because someone at the top gained.

Based on your assumption if Bill in the middle quintile makes a 20% gain from stock sales that means somebody at the top lost due to Bill's profit. Not true. Somebody at the top may have lost money, but not because of Bill.

I think you generally have a negative view of the wealthy and stock market and want to attribute characteristics to them that are not true in order to fit your preconceived political views.
 
I already posted the evidence. Just go back and look. The top 20% are spending 53.3% of their income. The bottom 20% are spending 100% of theirs.

NO. You are confusing what percent of an individual's income is spent on consumer spending versus total consumer spending. All individuals added together make up total consumer spending.

Total consumer spending was $13118.41 USD Billion in the first quarter of 2020. 60% of that was spent by the top 20%.

53.3% of the income from those in the top 20% is more money than that 100% spent by the bottom 20%. Lower income spend a greater portion of their income, but the upper 20% make a larger contribution to total consumer spending.

A person who makes $20,000 per year and spends 100% on consumer spending contributes $20,000 to the economy. The person who makes $1 million and spends 50% on consumer spending contributes $500,000 to the economy.
 
Well I'd argue real estate, and even stock investment creates economic activity. But I'm on board with the whole bottom up goal
at least until we right this listing ship.

Isn't estate taxes basically the same? We already have that, it hasn't fixed it.

Investment doesn't generate anything, unless it's investment in an IPO, most stock trades are don't add value to anything. I'm not making a value judgment about this, what constitutes consumer spending is baked into the definition. I think it's more about the velocity of money when it's spent on goods and services that make that the most efficient means of economic growth.

The estate tax is pretty meaningless given the massive loopholes. Something's going to have to give, especially since we'll probably end up taking on somewhere around 4 trillion in debt due to the pandemic. I think it makes the most sense to take the money out of the mattresses. I'm open to changes in the tax code that would accomplish something similar, but right now I'm not sure that's possible.
 
NO. You are confusing what percent of an individual's income is spent on consumer spending versus total consumer spending. All individuals added together make up total consumer spending.

Total consumer spending was $13118.41 USD Billion in the first quarter of 2020. 60% of that was spent by the top 20%.

53.3% of the income from those in the top 20% is more money than that 100% spent by the bottom 20%. Lower income spend a greater portion of their income, but the upper 20% make a larger contribution to total consumer spending.

This went about three (3) miles over his head. He's squirming now.
 
Hello ThatOwlWoman,

Yep. They lowered it when the markets crashed and everything shut down back in March. People who are laid off sure aren't profiting from their 401(k)s (assuming they haven't had to cash them in in order to pay their bills) when nothing is being added to them. Only the already-well-off, market investors, hedge fund managers, etc. are doing well. But Reichwingers can point at the markets and screech TRUMP! and think it means something.

What Trump really means to the financial stability of the nation is running the debt sky high, throwing money around in the form of reduced taxes, and claiming the results cash-drunk economy is fabulous.

It is irresponsible to talk about paying down the debt during the campaign, and then refusing to do so even with a strong economy while the opportunity existed. Now it's too late.
 
NO. You are confusing what percent of an individual's income is spent on consumer spending versus total consumer spending. All individuals added together make up total consumer spending.

Total consumer spending was $13118.41 USD Billion in the first quarter of 2020. 60% of that was spent by the top 20%.

53.3% of the income from those in the top 20% is more money than that 100% spent by the bottom 20%. Lower income spend a greater portion of their income, but the upper 20% make a larger contribution to total consumer spending.

IT DOESN'T MATTER. You aren't getting this. If the money that's currently NOT allocated to consumer spending WAS allocated to consumer spending, consumer spending would increase. The best way to do that is to put it into the hands of those that will spend 100% of it, rather than in the hands of someone who will only spend 53.3% of it on consumer spending.
 
Hello ThatOwlWoman,



What Trump really means to the financial stability of the nation is running the debt sky high, throwing money around in the form of reduced taxes, and claiming the results cash-drunk economy is fabulous.

It is irresponsible to talk about paying down the debt during the campaign, and then refusing to do so even with a strong economy while the opportunity existed. Now it's too late.

PoliTalker:

"Dive, market, DIVE!

Take DT down with you.


02-28-2020, 06:47 AM #5 | Top
PoliTalker


"Sometimes things have to get worse before they can get better.

We're going down.

BZZZZZT! BZZZZZT! BZZZZZT!

Dive! Dive! Dive!"
 
Hello Micawber,

A one time wealth tax can't pay a 20 trillion deficit. A permanent income equivalent capital gains tax can over 10 years. Not like I've run the numbers.

Fortunately, we don't have a $20 Trillion deficit.

More like $2.8 Trillion.

But the debt is $26.6 Trillion.
 
IT DOESN'T MATTER. You aren't getting this. If the money that's currently NOT allocated to consumer spending WAS allocated to consumer spending, consumer spending would increase. The best way to do that is to put it into the hands of those that will spend 100% of it, rather than in the hands of someone who will only spend 53.3% of it on consumer spending.

But they are spending the same amount. 100% from low income people is less than 53% of upper income people.

How do you allocate money to consumer spending? Do you want higher taxes on the wealthy? How does this money get to the lower income? Does the government give lower income more money so they can spend more?

Increasing consumer spending is not worth redistributing income from one group to another beyond the current system. I thought liberals did not like capitalism because of the emphasis on consumption. Now, you want to encourage it.
 
Hello Micawber,

Well I'd argue real estate, and even stock investment creates economic activity. But I'm on board with the whole bottom up goal
at least until we right this listing ship.

Isn't estate taxes basically the same? We already have that, it hasn't fixed it.

Ships which are too top-heavy have a way of flipping over and sinking.

There has to be lots of ballast and it has to be loaded low.
 
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