Your Final Projections
- Thread starter Rationalist
- Start date
Rationalist
Hail Voltaire
Uh, no. Just because you cheat doesn't mean conservatives do, too.
Are you trying to say Dix only cast one vote? My ballot required many choices.
no joke I had to show my ID. I guess I was being suppressed lol.
Mott the Hoople
Sweet Jane
I sent in a mail in ballot. All I had to do was provide the last 4 digits of my SS# and my address. No biggie.
I showed up in person and had to show Id I was being suppressed
In Mass? Very weird.
cawacko
Well-known member
I had to show ID as well in California but that's because the person couldn't get my name right. I told her it's Wacko, first name Ca. She couldn't figure it out.
PostmodernProphet
fully immersed in faith..
not only did I have to show my driver's license, they ran it through a reader to verify its accuracy......
Cancel 2020.1
Canceled
Looking solid for Obama in the 1st exit polls.
USFREEDOM911
MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN
That's because so many want him to exit.
It didnt even take that long! Bud had him on this morning and he was already in spazzing mode!
Cancel 2020.1
Canceled
Fox commentators are morose right now; MSNBC commentators are chipper.
Think it's going to be an Obama kind of night.
Think it's going to be an Obama kind of night.
FUCK THE POLICE
911 EVERY DAY
Yep, a copy of fivethirtyeight's chart. That's my projection.
FUCK THE POLICE
911 EVERY DAY
I had to show ID as well. I think maybe someone around here doesn't want white males to vote. Wonder why that'd be?
Cancel 2018. 3
<-- sched 2, MJ sched 1
Yep, a copy of fivethirtyeight's chart. That's my projection.
appears right so far
FUCK THE POLICE
911 EVERY DAY
The chance of either candidate winning this election ~= the chance they'll win Ohio.
Obama's been consistently ahead in the polls in Ohio for the past few days. Since an average of polls has a lower effective margin of error than a single poll, there's something like a 99% chance that this lead in the poll average represents an actual lead. The only reason Fivethirtyeight even gives the state only a 90.6% chance of going to Obama is because they're hedging there bets and trying to take into account the possibility that the polls are all off the mark. However, that's a pretty desperate hope to cling to.
If Obama wins Ohio, then Romney has several other courses. They are below, along with the respective Fivethirtyeight probability of Romney winning each state, and also a calculation of the overall probability of the scenario occurring, using the fact that the probability of several events occurring in a row = the probability of each multiplied together:
1) Florida (49.7%) * NC (74.4%) * Wisconsin (3.3%) * Colorado (20.5%) * Iowa (15.7%) * Nevada (6.6%) * New Hampshire (15.4%) = a 4e-6% (using scientific notation), or
2) Same as 1) with Virginia (20.6%) rather than Wisconsin = a 1.6e-4%, or
3) Florida (50.3%) * NC (74.4%) * Virginia (20.6%) * Wisconsin (3.3%) * Iowa (15.7%) * Nevada (6.6%) = a 2.6e-5%, or
4) Florida (50.3%) * NC (74.4%) * Virginia (20.6%) * Wisconsin (3.3%) * Colorado (20.5%) * New Hampshire (15.4%) = a 1.5e-4%, or
5) Same 4) but with Nevada (6.6%) instead of NH = a 6.8e-5%, or
6) Same 4) but with Iowa (15.7%) instead of NH = a 1.6e-4%, or
Altogether, there is about a 5.7e-4%, or
I'd stick to Ohio.
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FUCK THE POLICE
911 EVERY DAY
Independents are leaning towards Romney because more Republicans are identifying themselves as "independent".