As the 2024 election approaches, Democrats are worried that not only will there be a rematch between former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden but that a third-party ticket could aid a Republican victory.
The third-party vote has significantly affected the outcome of recent elections. In 2020, the share of third-party voters, among other things, helped Biden secure the White House. However, in 2016, it contributed to former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's loss.
No Labels is spending $70 million to launch an independent ticket in the United States. The group has gained momentum in Arizona, Colorado, Alaska, and Oregon. Some senators focused on centrism, such as Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV), have been members of the group for years and have supported having a third-party option in elections.
For the 2024 election, No Labels is seeking to offer alternative candidates for voters who, polls show, do not want to see another showdown between Biden and Trump.
However, a letter sent in early May from the organization's chairmen, former Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman and Benjamin F. Chavis Jr., said they "reject the notion that No Labels' 2024 presidential insurance project would inevitably help former President Trump's electoral prospects if he were the Republican nominee."
"No Labels is listening and we are giving a voice to the commonsense majority of the American people. Our 2024 insurance project is a constructive effort to compel the two major parties to nominate candidates and present ideas that speak to this majority," the letter obtained by the Washington Examiner stated. "But if they continue ignoring the clear will of most Americans, No Labels will have a ballot line in every state ready to nominate a potential Unity presidential ticket."A No Labels poll conducted in March found that 59% of respondents would consider voting for a centrist independent candidate over Biden and Trump. In a three-person race, the independent candidate received 20% of the support, compared with 33% for Trump and 28% for Biden.
"No third-party candidate has ever come remotely close to winning, including Theodore Roosevelt, running on a Progressive Party ticket just four years after leaving office as an enormously popular Republican president. In fact, no third-party candidate has won a single electoral vote since 1968," the groups wrote. "Though it can't win the race, No Labels can affect the outcome."
A 2020 exit poll conducted by NBC News found that 5% of national voters cast ballots for third-party candidates in 2016, with those voters moving to Biden by more than a 2-to-1 ratio in 2020. In the latter election, Biden beat Trump by close to 20,000 votes in Wisconsin and about 10,000 votes in Arizona and Georgia — three states Clinton lost in 2016.
Navin Nayak, the president of the Center for American Progress Action Fund, said he believes the third-party vote will resemble the share in 2020, at 2%, rather than the share in 2016.
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