Dems "Massively Vulnerable" to shift....

cawacko said:
As history has shown, voters (individually and as groups) don't always remain static so this is not surprising. You can add to it educated whites, and specifically suburban white women, who have started leaning more Democratic recently.
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educated whites left the Demmycrats behind decades ago.......all they have left is unreformed hippies with college degrees (not synonymous with educated)........
 
cawacko said:
Wow. So all BIPOC people are essentially one monolithic group reliant upon government programs for their survival/success in this country to which they all owe their gratitude to white liberals for giving it to them. And as such, it is their duty to reward white liberals by voting exclusively for Democrats and therefore inconceivable that they would have any issues with the Democratic Party. And even though the article is by left leaning Axios and references polling by the New York Times and Financial Times the data isn't real or accurate because you don't like what it says.

We're all familiar with what blatant racism looks like. But there is a far more subtle bias/racism that exists and is often far more insidious in its affects. This statement is an example of it.
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The black vote shows that clearly. They vote Dem .
 
ThatOwlWoman said:
We could also post stories about lifelong conservative voters who are turning away from the (R) party in droves. I won't believe either side is switching until the votes are counted in Nov.
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Many were driven out as RINOs. So much so that a Goldwater/Reagan conservative of the 80s like myself is now labeled a "Lib".

The GOP is DEAD. The present-day Republican Party only pays lip service to personal accountability and fiscal responsibility. IMO, the nation is worse for it.
 
Nordberg said:
The black vote shows that clearly. They vote Dem .
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In your defense you're in your 80's correct? So the America you grew up in, largely white and black, is very different today. LatinX people outnumber black people in America. Asians are the fastest growing immigrant group in the country. (Asians outnumber black people in California 3 to 1.) On top of that there are many bi-racial kids of all kinds of backgrounds. It is not 1960 anymore racially.

This article is not about only black people. It is written by a LatinX person. It shows data for LatinX and Asian people, not just black people. And according to this polling BIPOC people are showing far higher levels of dissatisfaction with Democrats. That doesn't mean they are all going to become Republicans but the polling is what it is.

And the idea that black, LatinX, Asian and Indian people can't survive or succeed in this country without government programs given to them by white people is the definition of soft bigotry of low expectations at best or racism at worst. (It's really not that different than what TDAK says, he just says out loud he thinks BIPOC people are inferior - this is saying it far more subtly.)
 
cawacko said:
As history has shown, voters (individually and as groups) don't always remain static so this is not surprising. You can add to it educated whites, and specifically suburban white women, who have started leaning more Democratic recently.
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You are being racist again.
 
Walt said:
I already remarked on that. In all national contests, for the last 25 years, the results have been nearly 50/50. That is weird because the Senate is divided by states which are very unrepresentative of the popular vote. But it keeps happening. There is some explanation, it could not happen for so long by random chance, but no one has proven a cause. There are a lot of theories.
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The Senate is not elected by a national popular vote, Sock.
Walt said:
Anyway, that means that any shift, even tiny shifts, will sway the entire government. We are not talking about far less than a 1% shift. More like a 0.1% shift will change everything.

That is not just a shift in who people vote for, but whether people vote. A tiny turnout drop for Clinton allowed trump to be elected.
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The President is not elected by popular vote, Sock.
Walt said:
So we are all sitting here trying to predict absolute tiny moves in the electorate. We are trying to predict the figurative flapping of a butterfly wing.
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Cliche fallacy. Meaningless.
Walt said:
I point out that the Republicans have completely given up on minority outreach, and are using fake images of Blacks, because they cannot even find enough Black supporters to take pictures of. There are literally 50 million Blacks in America, so I would think they should be able to find a few dozen to take photos of.
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Racism. Word stuffing. You cannot speak for everyone. You only get to speak for you. Omniscience fallacy.
Walt said:
You are free to point to polls, but I will say that this far out, and for a minority of the voters, are practically meaningless at this point. Let me say the Republicans are seeing the same, and even more accurate polls, and do not think it is worth spending any money on minority outreach.
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Argument from randU fallacy. You cannot use made up numbers as 'data'.
 
Into the Night said:
The Senate is not elected by a national popular vote, Sock.
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Night is a little slow, so I will explain it to him slowly. If he still does not get what I am saying, I will know he is trying to be obtuse.

The Senate, Presidency, and House all convert votes into power in different ways. None use a national popular vote, but all are national votes for power. Somehow all three get a nearly 50/50 split of the power, for about 25 years of elections. That is about 27 elections decided in three very different ways, and yet it keeps coming down to unbelievably close to 50/50.

This is beyond random chance, and must have an explanation.
 
Walt said:
Night is a little slow, so I will explain it to him slowly. If he still does not get what I am saying, I will know he is trying to be obtuse.

The Senate, Presidency, and House all convert votes into power in different ways. None use a national popular vote, but all are national votes for power. Somehow all three get a nearly 50/50 split of the power, for about 25 years of elections. That is about 27 elections decided in three very different ways, and yet it keeps coming down to unbelievably close to 50/50.

This is beyond random chance, and must have an explanation.
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It does, Sock, but you won't read it.
 
If the Revolution gets to the crackdown they are aiming for all opposition will be brutally crushed....these are sadistic regressive fucks.
 
"No matter who we vote for we always get the policies of John McCain" has been making several appearances on my grapevine....cant remember where it comes from.
 
Hawkeye10 said:
"No matter who we vote for we always get the policies of John McCain" has been making several appearances on my grapevine....cant remember where it comes from.
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Policies of people like McCain, Romney, McConnell, etc., are a major source of why things are fucked up. You can't compromise with Socialists and Communists, it isn't happening.
 
NiftyNiblick said:
I'm going through what many of these people are going through--disillusionment with my Democratic Party.

How that translates into support for the White Christian Nationalist Republican Party I'll never understand.

Are they so stupid as to cut off their own noses to spite their own faces?

Their responsibility is to help move the Democratic Party in the direction that they deem desirable.
It may not be where I've always tried to push the party with my primary votes and political contributions.

But if they vote Republican, Black, Latino, or Asian, they're nothing but very stupid Uncle Toms,
spiting themselves and richly deserving what they'll get.

And if the pachys win, they certainly will get it.




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Asians are in an interesting position in American culture. Folks like yourself think they are the Asian equivalent of Uncle Tom's for having conservative beliefs yet folks on the left refer to Asians as white adjacent and when talking about minorities often leave Asians out. So if they aren't white, and aren't minorities (thought some may try to caveat 'under represented') - they are almost their own entity huh?
 
Damocles said:
https://www.axios.com/2024/03/13/why-democrats-black-hispanic-vote-republican

New data shows that Democrats' longtime advantage with Black, Latino and Asian American voters has shrunk to its lowest point in more than 60 years — creating a massive vulnerability for President Biden and congressional Democrats.

Why it matters: One of the most loyal parts of the Democratic coalition is suddenly in danger. Black and Hispanic men could vote Republican in numbers not seen since President Dwight D. Eisenhower was elected in the 1950s.

The big picture: Latinos, the nation's largest non-white group, still lean Democratic. But they've been shifting Republican over the last two decades, and are no longer the slam-dunk Democrats they were in 1960 when JFK ran for president.

By the numbers: Democrats' advantage among Black, Latino and Asian voters is at its lowest since 1960, Financial Times columnist and chief data reporter John Burn-Murdoch found by analyzing a massive set of polling data.

More at link...
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This shift in support is definitely great news, but what you won't like to hear is that this is happening because of the Trump "MAGA" (America First) movement within the Republican Party.
 
Jade Dragon said:
They may vote Republican but I don't see them voting Trump. He's his own shitshow and Republicans would do well to shitcan him.
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The exact OPPOSITE is true.

The people who are the subject of this thread will most definitely vote for Trump, but they may not vote Republican (down ballot), especially if said "Republican" (down ballot) isn't also MAGA (America First).
 
Walt said:
There is a close to 50/50 split in every national election,
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2020 election: (faulted due to Democrat election fraud)
2016 election: 304 (Trump), 227 (Clinton) ... Hardly a 50/50 split...
2012 election: 332 (Obama), 206 (Romney) ... Hardly a 50/50 split...
2008 election: 365 (Obama), 173 (McCain) ... Hardly a 50/50 split...
2004 election: 286 (Bush), 251 (Kerry) ... sort of a 50/50 split...
2000 election: 271 (Bush), 266 (Gore) ... effectively a 50/50 split...
1996 election: 379 (Clinton), 159 (Dole) ... Hardly a 50/50 split...
1992 election: 370 (Clinton), 168 (Bush) ... Hardly a 50/50 split...
and let's not even get into the Bush/Reagan landslides...

One election (2000) is not "every national election"... Neither are two elections (if you also count 2004).
 
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cawacko said:
In your defense you're in your 80's correct? So the America you grew up in, largely white and black, is very different today. LatinX people outnumber black people in America. Asians are the fastest growing immigrant group in the country. (Asians outnumber black people in California 3 to 1.) On top of that there are many bi-racial kids of all kinds of backgrounds. It is not 1960 anymore racially.

This article is not about only black people. It is written by a LatinX person. It shows data for LatinX and Asian people, not just black people. And according to this polling BIPOC people are showing far higher levels of dissatisfaction with Democrats. That doesn't mean they are all going to become Republicans but the polling is what it is.

And the idea that black, LatinX, Asian and Indian people can't survive or succeed in this country without government programs given to them by white people is the definition of soft bigotry of low expectations at best or racism at worst. (It's really not that different than what TDAK says, he just says out loud he thinks BIPOC people are inferior - this is saying it far more subtly.)
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Why are you saying "LatinX"?? There is no such thing.

I suspect that what you mean is "Latinos" (or "Latinas")?
 
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