Hillary OUT of race, no VP spot with Obama

Superfreak said:
1) If they are underestimating Obama at this point, then they deserve to lose. He just took out the Clintons. That should be warning enough not to underestimate him.

2) I think the alcohol effected your reasoning. He would be batshit crazy to put Edwards on his ticket. I agree that he is tougher than he appears, but this elections are not always about reality, but rather perception. Hillary tried (my opinion) to emasculate him and to an extent I think many people fell for it. For that reason, plus the fact that I think Edwards is a piss poor choice, I still think he takes on Biden.

3) Unless something dramatic happens, this will be a close race. It would be a mistake to underestimate McCains appeal. (the majority of this country is not like this board) Obama would have to sweep all of the swing states to make it even close to looking like a landslide. He currently trails in Michigan, Florida and Ohio. No way will there be a landslide if he loses any one of those, let alone all three.
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It didn't affect my reasoning SF. There isn't going to be any Biden, or Sam Nunn on his ticket, so that the pundits can nod sagely and say "now Obama has the gravitas to go up against McCaiin on national security, but...they still have to be careful here, this is John McCain."

If Kerry had not been the 04 nominee, there'd be buzz about him on the ticket because he would bring "credibility". The one thing we always say is, dems never learn. Well, we are seeing this change with Obama. The second he brings in a big dog, he plays right in their narrative. Barack Obama is going to be the big dog. That is what he is doing. He is stepping into McCain every chance he gets on National Security, the thing they say he should avoid and try to get it back to "traditional" Democratic issues like SS and the economy and health care. He is remaking the decades long narrative that the Republicans set down post-Vietnam. He is going to make them eat it.
 
Chapdog said:
Thats great.
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I know. You don't know how long I've been cursing my tv, at what weaklings democrat after democrat have been. John Kerry allowing those chickenshits to turn him into a coward. Lieberman wandering around the Senate floor, getting all the benefits of being in the majority party while campaigning for the oposition, with a big shit eating smile on his face. No one with the guts to step into him. Not one person. But that just changed.

I've waited for this. I finally, never thought I'd see it. I'm seeing it. I'm excited.
 
Superfreak said:
the boom, the crane, a few 1000 pound bombs, 2-3 tons of bricks, castration threats etc...
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Well, as far as Hillary goes, I don't really want to talk about her, because I feel that what we should have had on Tuesday night was taken away, and I want to enjoy it now. As a liberal, I am very excited about the possibility that I am seeing the kind of Democrat that we haven't had in my lifetime. And as an American, I think we should have taken a moment to understand that we just nominated a black man. As I have always said, that doesn't mean nothing, that's something. I would feel the same way were the nominee a woman. But, to wrap up the Hillary story, I think that no one did it better than Rangel:

“We pledged to support her to the end,” Representative Charles B. Rangel, a New York Democrat who has been a patron of Mrs. Clinton since she first ran for the Senate, said in an interview. “Our problem is not being able to determine when the hell the end is.”

And I personally was kind of shocked to hear that her own top advisors, and Howard Fineman said they were the big names, called Senators like Schumer and told him that they had to talk to Hillary. So i guess the reason why none of us could make sense out of what she was doing on Tuesday night is because it was actually irrational, and she had lost all reason. I can only assume that Bill had something to do with that.
 
There may well be a landslide. The biggest problem that McCain has is not Obama. Its the waythe republican party has ignored what conservatives have always stood for.

The republican party has abandoned the basics that kept them in power. They have raised the deficit, ignored tax reform, created more and more government programs, become more and more intrusive on our lives, and continued to cut freedoms.

They are their own worst enemy.
 
blackascoal said:
Your hypotheticals are based on ancient assumptions my friend.

Here's a secret .. Romney is a mormon and christian conservatives don't like them .. hence the success of Huckabee in the south.

You are correct about one thing .. it won't be a Reagan like LANDSLIDE, it will be a GOLDWATER-like LANDSLIDE.

If Obama picks Nunn .. goodbye south.

I may be insane .. but I ain't stupid.

Obama has serious game and he just put away a far more powerful political force than McFossil .. who pales in comparison.

Oh .. did I mention the money .. the TONS of money coming Obama's way?

Don't be confused by my admitted enthusiasm my brother. I've been doing politics for a long time and I get paid for unemotional analysis.

McCain is the only thing standing between disaster .. like a boy with his finger in the dyke.

I may be insane .. but I ain't stupid.
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I don't think your are stupid and hopefully I did not give the impression that I thought that. However, you most certainly have had your fill of the Obamamania. Again, I understand you are caught up in the excitement of his campaign. He is a good orator, he has the ability to bring this country back together, he has the ability to break a significant barrier, he has many ideas that fall in line with your views on where this country should go. I do understand your enthusiasm.

But again, any wager you want. He will not even get a Clinton over Dole type of victory. This is going to be close.

Side note.... Reagan swept all but one state and DC. It was the biggest landslide in our history. Goldwater won 6 states. Popular vote wise I would imagine the two were pretty close.... but electoral college is what counts.

There is ZERO chance of Obama doing that. ZERO. Even with Nunn.

UT, WY, AZ, TX, KS, ID, OK, AR, LA, WV, TN, AL, GA and KY are all locks for McCain. I retract KS if he takes McCaskill as she would swing her homestate of MO and perhaps KS as well if she is on the ticket. Nunn would help for AL and GA.

Finally, AGAIN, yes, McCain is not as exciting as Obama. But if you believe the Reps/Conservatives in this country will fail to realize that they have ZERO chance of retaking either House in Congress and that the WH is their ONLY shot at maintaining any sort of balance, then you are indeed quite full of the kool-aid.
 
Darla said:
Well, as far as Hillary goes, I don't really want to talk about her, because I feel that what we should have had on Tuesday night was taken away, and I want to enjoy it now. As a liberal, I am very excited about the possibility that I am seeing the kind of Democrat that we haven't had in my lifetime. And as an American, I think we should have taken a moment to understand that we just nominated a black man. As I have always said, that doesn't mean nothing, that's something. I would feel the same way were the nominee a woman. But, to wrap up the Hillary story, I think that no one did it better than Rangel:

“We pledged to support her to the end,” Representative Charles B. Rangel, a New York Democrat who has been a patron of Mrs. Clinton since she first ran for the Senate, said in an interview. “Our problem is not being able to determine when the hell the end is.”

And I personally was kind of shocked to hear that her own top advisors, and Howard Fineman said they were the big names, called Senators like Schumer and told him that they had to talk to Hillary. So i guess the reason why none of us could make sense out of what she was doing on Tuesday night is because it was actually irrational, and she had lost all reason. I can only assume that Bill had something to do with that.
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Without question, his nomination is historic and a great step forward for this country. I agree that we should put the topic of the Clintons out to pasture. Their time is done. Its Obama's time now.

I know the clowns running the 527's on each side are going to end up pissing me off, but I hope that Obama and McCain will partake in the town hall format they both seem interested in and I hope they both stick to talking about their vision for the country over the next four years rather than see a second round of what just happened in the Dem primary.
 
Superfreak said:
I don't think your are stupid and hopefully I did not give the impression that I thought that. However, you most certainly have had your fill of the Obamamania. Again, I understand you are caught up in the excitement of his campaign. He is a good orator, he has the ability to bring this country back together, he has the ability to break a significant barrier, he has many ideas that fall in line with your views on where this country should go. I do understand your enthusiasm.

But again, any wager you want. He will not even get a Clinton over Dole type of victory. This is going to be close.

Side note.... Reagan swept all but one state and DC. It was the biggest landslide in our history. Goldwater won 6 states. Popular vote wise I would imagine the two were pretty close.... but electoral college is what counts.

There is ZERO chance of Obama doing that. ZERO. Even with Nunn.

UT, WY, AZ, TX, KS, ID, OK, AR, LA, WV, TN, AL, GA and KY are all locks for McCain. I retract KS if he takes McCaskill as she would swing her homestate of MO and perhaps KS as well if she is on the ticket. Nunn would help for AL and GA.

Finally, AGAIN, yes, McCain is not as exciting as Obama. But if you believe the Reps/Conservatives in this country will fail to realize that they have ZERO chance of retaking either House in Congress and that the WH is their ONLY shot at maintaining any sort of balance, then you are indeed quite full of the kool-aid.
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Just kidding about the "stupid" stuff and I took no offense when you called me "INSANE" :eek:

I like you.

However my fine friend, make lemonade out of this ..

A. The recent special elections defeats happened in 3 solidly republican districts.

B. Republicans themselves are worried about the defeats and believe they demonstrate just how bad it's going to be ..

"Representative Tom Davis, Republican of Virginia and former leader of his party’s Congressional campaign committee, issued a dire warning that the Republican Party had been severely damaged, in no small part because of its identification with President Bush. Mr. Davis said that, unless Republican candidates changed course, they could lose 20 seats in the House and 6 in the Senate.

“They are canaries in the coal mine, warning of far greater losses in the fall, if steps are not taken to remedy the current climate,” Mr. Davis said in a memorandum. “The political atmosphere facing House Republicans this November is the worst since Watergate and is far more toxic than it was in 2006.”

I could post a hundred such comments .. from republicans.

C. These were republican defeats in republican districts in special elections in places where republicans don't lose.

D. Perhaps you can point out any time in history where a party occupying the White House was returned during an economic meltdown?

E. Economy in the dumps, mortgages failing everywhere

F. More than 80% of Americans believe this nation is on the wrong course

G. Majority of Americans against the war

H. Republicans are running a candidate that engenders no enthusiasm or energy, and in fact, became the candidate only by default

I. Both Obama and Clinton raised WAY more money than McCain

J. Democrats have brought in WAY more new voters than republicans and the voters who participated in democratic primaries FAR exceed republican primaries

K. Americans who identify themselves as republicans have been declining steadily since 2002 .. still declining

L. All of the above .. and more

M. Did I mention the money?
GOP Fears Obama's Money Machine
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0608/10868.html

N. The only "lock" McCain has in Arizona, everything else is in play.

This has nothing to do with my rose-colored prescription Obama glasses my friend .. you underestimate him. He just defeated a far more powerful political force than McCain .. and 4 years ago, he was a State Senator. He has incredible prowess and game.

And thems the facts my brother.
 
blackascoal said:
Just kidding about the "stupid" stuff and I took no offense when you called me "INSANE" :eek:

I like you.

However my fine friend, make lemonade out of this ..

A. The recent special elections defeats happened in 3 solidly republican districts.

B. Republicans themselves are worried about the defeats and believe they demonstrate just how bad it's going to be ..

"Representative Tom Davis, Republican of Virginia and former leader of his party’s Congressional campaign committee, issued a dire warning that the Republican Party had been severely damaged, in no small part because of its identification with President Bush. Mr. Davis said that, unless Republican candidates changed course, they could lose 20 seats in the House and 6 in the Senate.

“They are canaries in the coal mine, warning of far greater losses in the fall, if steps are not taken to remedy the current climate,” Mr. Davis said in a memorandum. “The political atmosphere facing House Republicans this November is the worst since Watergate and is far more toxic than it was in 2006.”

I could post a hundred such comments .. from republicans.

C. These were republican defeats in republican districts in special elections in places where republicans don't lose.

D. Perhaps you can point out any time in history where a party occupying the White House was returned during an economic meltdown?

E. Economy in the dumps, mortgages failing everywhere

F. More than 80% of Americans believe this nation is on the wrong course

G. Majority of Americans against the war

H. Republicans are running a candidate that engenders no enthusiasm or energy, and in fact, became the candidate only by default

I. Both Obama and Clinton raised WAY more money than McCain

J. Democrats have brought in WAY more new voters than republicans and the voters who participated in democratic primaries FAR exceed republican primaries

K. Americans who identify themselves as republicans have been declining steadily since 2002 .. still declining

L. All of the above .. and more

M. Did I mention the money?
GOP Fears Obama's Money Machine
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0608/10868.html

N. The only "lock" McCain has in Arizona, everything else is in play.

This has nothing to do with my rose-colored prescription Obama glasses my friend .. you underestimate him. He just defeated a far more powerful political force than McCain .. and 4 years ago, he was a State Senator. He has incredible prowess and game.

And thems the facts my brother.
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And, the best part…he’s going to make Joe Lieberman eat worms!
 
Darla said:
And, the best part…he’s going to make Joe Lieberman eat worms!
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I'm hoping for more of the "toilet-cleaning" role you outlined in the thread which Dixie will now permanently ignore.

I've been able to see the arrogance in that guy since he won re-election for being a coveted vote by both parties, and trying play both like they need to suck up to him "or else". I love the thought of him in political exile - a vote the Dems don't need or care about.
 
Onceler said:
I'm hoping for more of the "toilet-cleaning" role you outlined in the thread which Dixie will now permanently ignore.

I've been able to see the arrogance in that guy since he won re-election for being a coveted vote by both parties, and trying play both like they need to suck up to him "or else". I love the thought of him in political exile - a vote the Dems don't need or care about.
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Oh I know, he has been driving a lot of us crazy I think. And dems have continued to kiss his ass, but I see that as ending with that report. Not just Obama cornering him LBJ-style, but also the Obama campaign coming right out and saying, it this doesn’t stop he is going to have problems with the caucus. In other words, finally, there are going to be consequences for a Democratic senator openly campaigning with and for, the opposition candidate.
 
Wouldn’t it be funny Onceler if I ended up being a bigger Obama partisan than you? I know you are really into all of that change Washington stuff. But I see liberals being beat at every turn by a pack of bullies who then snicker and snerk it up about the wimps. And the result of that has been that we have had radical right policies forced down this country’s throat. So while others have looked for a Bobby Kennedy, I have dreamed about what an LBJ would do to these frat brats. And I see now, signs that we finally have a live one here. And that gets me excited. Because in order to effect changes that will bring hope and better things, you have to get elected. And in order to get elected, you have to beat the bullies. If he is doing what I suspect he is doing, he’s going to transform the post-Vietnam narrative. And if he does that, I will be wearing “I heart Obama” underwear for the next ten years.
 
Darla said:
I know. You don't know how long I've been cursing my tv, at what weaklings democrat after democrat have been. John Kerry allowing those chickenshits to turn him into a coward. Lieberman wandering around the Senate floor, getting all the benefits of being in the majority party while campaigning for the oposition, with a big shit eating smile on his face. No one with the guts to step into him. Not one person. But that just changed.

I've waited for this. I finally, never thought I'd see it. I'm seeing it. I'm excited.
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tho i do like Lieberman for CT as he helps support some of the defense industry my family all works in that state. Thats why i was for him when he was running against peter north.
 
"Wouldn’t it be funny Onceler if I ended up being a bigger Obama partisan than you? "

That would be ironic.

I think my biggest fear is that he'll turn out to be just another expedient politician, like Bill Clinton was, and we'll end up with a bunch of middlin' to right policies as he tries to be all things to all people.

I was encouraged to see this morning that he's asking the DNC to not accept money from federal lobbyists & PAC's. That's cool.
 
blackascoal said:
Just kidding about the "stupid" stuff and I took no offense when you called me "INSANE" :eek:

I like you.

However my fine friend, make lemonade out of this ..

A. The recent special elections defeats happened in 3 solidly republican districts.

Again, I think this will be a wake up call for the Reps for the general election. These losses highlight the FACT that they are going to give up even more seats in November. If they want ANY sort of power in DC, they have to rally around McCain. Yes, it does not appear that they are now. But I believe they will for this reason alone.... they do not want a Dem controlled House and Senate combined with a Dem in the White House. No matter how much the RR might dislike McCain.


B. Republicans themselves are worried about the defeats and believe they demonstrate just how bad it's going to be ..

See A above. Same reasoning.

C. These were republican defeats in republican districts in special elections in places where republicans don't lose.

Again, see A above. Same reasoning.

D. Perhaps you can point out any time in history where a party occupying the White House was returned during an economic meltdown?

Given that we have yet to see negative growth in the economy on the whole, it is quite silly to call it a meltdown. Yes, the financial sector has seen a meltdown and will likely struggle the remainder of this year (at least). But the remainder of the economy has actually shown resilience in the face of the financial sector getting hit.

E. Economy in the dumps, mortgages failing everywhere

Both parties are to blame for the mortgage meltdown. But I think you need to take a look at the situation again. Foreclosure rates are still below 2% on average. The worst in housing has been pretty much priced into the market. The looming problem will actually be in the credit card arena.

F. More than 80% of Americans believe this nation is on the wrong course

Agreed. This will be a major hurdle to overcome for McCain. But you are again failing to recognize that you need more than this to swing the hard core red states. They do NOT believe that raising taxes (or eliminating tax cuts) is a good idea. They do not tend to want more government programs.

G. Majority of Americans against the war

Yes, this is the second major hurdle for McCain. But again, will this spark enough to turn a Red state blue? The swing states? Absolutely they each have a chance to turn on this issue alone. But the hard core red states? Doubtful. Not with McCains background.

H. Republicans are running a candidate that engenders no enthusiasm or energy, and in fact, became the candidate only by default

Again see answer to letter A. Same reasoning.

I. Both Obama and Clinton raised WAY more money than McCain

A third hurdle to be sure. Obama will outspend McCain probably two to one. But spending money on ads does not equate to changing peoples political philosophies. For the Independents and moderates in both parties, yes, it will have an effect and could swing the swing states in his favor. But again, this is unlikely to change the views of those in the hard core red states.

J. Democrats have brought in WAY more new voters than republicans and the voters who participated in democratic primaries FAR exceed republican primaries

Again.... look to past election cycles. While Obama has certainly done a great job registering new Dems... the numbers at the primary poles in total compared to Reps means little. Because it was that way in 1992, 1996, 2000 and 2004 as well. Yes, the new voters could swing close states, but they are unlikely to topple the hard core Red states.

K. Americans who identify themselves as republicans have been declining steadily since 2002 .. still declining

True. But out of those that have dropped.... is it because they are cons pissed at the Reps lack of fiscal responsibility etc... and thus switched to independents? Or is it that they are so pissed they will actually vote Dem? I would guess that it is the former.

N. The only "lock" McCain has in Arizona, everything else is in play.

LMAO. That is the kool aid talking my friend.

This has nothing to do with my rose-colored prescription Obama glasses my friend .. you underestimate him. He just defeated a far more powerful political force than McCain .. and 4 years ago, he was a State Senator. He has incredible prowess and game.

And thems the facts my brother.
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I do not underestimate Obama. I made the same point on how powerful a message he sent on taking out the Clinton machine. Which is why I think he will likely win. So again, we currently agree that he will win. My point is that he will not even come remotely close to pulling off this landslide you keep predicting.

I leave open the possibility that I am wrong on this.... but I firmly believe the rally of the Reps and Conservatives will occur to do everything they can to prevent a Dem in the White House when there is no chance they will do anything but give up seats in the House and Senate (further strengthening the Dem control in each).
 
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