July jobs report: Unemployment rate jumps to 4.3%, job gains total just 114,000 as labor slowdown deepens

[Teflon Don]

The fact that he's happy about it says that he really doesn't give a shit about this country.

He should be ashamed.

Spare us the crocodile tears. You know this is how the game is played by both sides. What you are really sad about is that this will be laid at Kumala’s feet. There policies brought this on now they must live with the consequences. And so must you

 

[Earl]

There needs to be less demand for labor for inflation to go down. In theory, interest rates would go down too, because the Fed would lower interest rates when inflation goes down.

So, Walter, American workers have to lose their jobs so that interest rates go down.

 

[Earl]

It sometimes indicates a recession, but has been far from always reliable.

What it is a reliable indicator of is falling inflation. Investors think that there will be lower inflation in the future, and are trying to lock in higher interest rates for longer. They are willing to accept slightly lower interest rates to lock it in.

Wrong again, Walter:

There have been six major US recessions since 1976, per the National Bureau of Economic Research’s definition (NBER). Represented by gray panels in the below chart, all six recessions were preceded by an inverted 10-2 spread lasting longer than two months, and each recession (other than the 2020 pandemic-induced one) occurred less than two years after the 10-2 spread first inverted.

Inverted Yield Curve Explained: Implications & Strategy | YCharts

Understand the inverted yield curve, its economic implications, and strategic responses with YCharts. Discover how investors and advisors navigate these uncertain times.

get.ycharts.com

 

[Earl]

The fact that he's happy about it says that he really doesn't give a shit about this country.

He should be ashamed.

I am ashamed... of Biden/Harris...their economic policies are shameful.


Kamala Harris Losing to Trump on Key Economic Issue: Poll

Kamala Harris is facing skepticism from voters regarding her ability to tackle a key economic issue: inflation.

Recent polling by YouGov found that only 29 percent of respondents thought that Harris would do a better job than Donald Trump when it comes to inflation, while 43 percent had more confidence in the former president.
newsweek.com


Vice President Kamala Harris, the presumptive Democratic nominee, is losing to Donald Trump on the key issue of immigration, a new snap poll suggests.

A YouGov poll published on 22 July shows Trump is seen as better than Harris at handling immigration (+15), compared to the incumbent Vice President.
newsweek.com

House approves resolution condemning Harris as ‘border czar’
YouTube · ABC News

The resolution offers a glimpse into the Republican plan to campaign against Vice President Kamala Harris.


The Biden/Harris record on the economy and the border is shameful.

Their out of control crime is shameful too. Their soft as jello policy on crime has resulted in out of control crime and anarchy in the streets and on campuses.

Wars now in Europe and the M.E. show a weak foreign policy by Biden/Harris...shameful.

 

[Walt]

That means that the regime claims such....as we are lied to constantly about almost everything.

So having failed on the facts, the supporters of trump claim that all the facts are lies.

Wouldn't that make the facts that support trump lies?

 

[Walt]

The jobs that were lost because of COVID have been recovered by now. This report is reflective of our actual growth and that is very weak.

So you are calling Gardner a liar when he claims there has been net job losses?

 

[ExpressLane]

So you are calling Gardner a liar when he claims there has been net job losses?

I'll let Gardner explain that to you. He is better at drawing pictures than I am.

 

[Walt]

So, Walter, American workers have to lose their jobs so that interest rates go down.

You are confused. Interest rates have to go higher, to reduce demand on labor, in order to reduce inflation. As inflation reduces, interest rates can be dropped. But, inflation, not interest rates, is what is being targeted.

Is it worth it to keep inflation in check? trump says no, but experience says yes. Low, steady inflation creates an environment for long term growth. trump's idea would give us some short term growth, but at the expense of a lot of long term growth.

 

[ExpressLane]

Spare us the crocodile tears. You know this is how the game is played by both sides. What you are really sad about is that this will be laid at Kumala’s feet. There policies brought this on now they must live with the consequences. And so must you

NOMAD==>

 

[Earl]

You are confused. Interest rates have to go higher, to reduce demand on labor, in order to reduce inflation. As inflation reduces, interest rates can be dropped. But, inflation, not interest rates, is what is being targeted.

Is it worth it to keep inflation in check? trump says no, but experience says yes. Low, steady inflation creates an environment for long term growth. trump's idea would give us some short term growth, but at the expense of a lot of long term growth.

You are confused. Interest rates have to go higher, to reduce demand on labor, in order to reduce inflation. As inflation reduces, interest rates can be dropped. But, inflation, not interest rates, is what is being targeted.

Is it worth it to keep inflation in check? trump says no, but experience says yes. Low, steady inflation creates an environment for long term growth. trump's idea would give us some short term growth, but at the expense of a lot of long term growth.

No, Walter, I understand you perfectly.

So, Walter, American workers have to lose their jobs so that interest rates go down.

 

[Earl]

Walter, perhaps you can explain this boo boo:

"It" (bond yield inversion) "sometimes indicates a recession, but has been far from always reliable."


There have been six major US recessions since 1976, per the National Bureau of Economic Research’s definition (NBER). Represented by gray panels in the below chart, all six recessions were preceded by an inverted 10-2 spread lasting longer than two months, and each recession (other than the 2020 pandemic-induced one) occurred less than two years after the 10-2 spread first inverted."
Inverted Yield Curve Explained: Implications & Strategy | YCharts

get.ycharts.com get.ycharts.com


Perhaps you can say that the relative humidity was extremely high and skewed the stats showing that:

"There have been six major US recessions since 1976, per the National Bureau of Economic Research’s definition (NBER). Represented by gray panels in the below chart, all six recessions were preceded by an inverted 10-2 spread lasting longer than two months, and each recession (other than the 2020 pandemic-induced one) occurred less than two years after the 10-2 spread first inverted."

get.ycharts.com get.ycharts.com

 

[Earl]

NOMAD==>

Poor Nomad.

 

[Earl]

Walter?

 

[Walt]

In spite of the priming of the pump with massive dollar creation aka debt and the ruinization of the dollar.

The money supply is shrinking. That means that more dollars are being destroyed than created. That is rare, and is the opposite of "massive dollar creation."

As for the Dollar being "ruinized"... It has been strengthened by being the most stable currency in the world.

 

[Earl]

The money supply is shrinking. That means that more dollars are being destroyed than created. That is rare, and is the opposite of "massive dollar creation."

As for the Dollar being "ruinized"... It has been strengthened by being the most stable currency in the world.

I'm pleased as punch that I was able to educate you about Bond Yield Inversions, Walter.

Walter-"It" (bond yield inversion) "sometimes indicates a recession, but has been far from always reliable."


"There have been six major US recessions since 1976, per the National Bureau of Economic Research’s definition (NBER). Represented by gray panels in the below chart, all six recessions were preceded by an inverted 10-2 spread lasting longer than two months, and each recession (other than the 2020 pandemic-induced one) occurred less than two years after the 10-2 spread first inverted."

get.ycharts.com get.ycharts.com


You are welcome...Walter.

 

[Walt]

I'm pleased as punch that I was able to educate you about Bond Yield Inversions, Walter.

Walter-"It" (bond yield inversion) "sometimes indicates a recession, but has been far from always reliable."


"There have been six major US recessions since 1976, per the National Bureau of Economic Research’s definition (NBER). Represented by gray panels in the below chart, all six recessions were preceded by an inverted 10-2 spread lasting longer than two months, and each recession (other than the 2020 pandemic-induced one) occurred less than two years after the 10-2 spread first inverted."

get.ycharts.com get.ycharts.com


You are welcome...Walter.

This is the first time in a long time we have defeated inflation without a recession, so it would be different than the last six times.

Actually, I am mistaken (and you are too). There have been seven times that there has been an inverse curve, and six of those times it led to a recession within six months. We have had a inverse curve for over two years now... And no recession.

So you have to say, six out of the last seven times, not the last six times. Your prediction has already failed.

 

[Joe]

Um the country was in the grips of a pandemic. Fortunately Trump got 3 vaccines produced 2 vacines in record time that help stem the pandemic.

The vac in retrospect is a fail but at the time Trump took action while biden was hiding in his basement. He didn't just sit there deer in headlights and panic.

The irony is the people still getting boosted up regularly are the same people with the worst TDS.

It's like the old Jew dilemma- 50% off pork.

 

[Joe]

You are confused. Interest rates have to go higher, to reduce demand on labor, in order to reduce inflation. As inflation reduces, interest rates can be dropped. But, inflation, not interest rates, is what is being targeted.

Is it worth it to keep inflation in check? trump says no, but experience says yes. Low, steady inflation creates an environment for long term growth. trump's idea would give us some short term growth, but at the expense of a lot of long term growth.

And you have it wrong as well. Play all the interest rate/employment games you like.

If you want to stem inflation the government has to stop printing 100 bills and handing them out to their cronies. It really is that simple. All the other so called science about it is just a shiny object bullshit.

 

[Walt]

And you have it wrong as well. Play all the interest rate/employment games you like.

If you want to stem inflation the government has to stop printing 100 bills and handing them out to their cronies. It really is that simple. All the other so called science about it is just a shiny object bullshit.

The money supply is shrinking, which means that more money is being destroyed than is being created. Government expenses are not paid for using printed money. Money is borrowed to spend.

 

[Earl]

This is the first time in a long time we have defeated inflation without a recession, so it would be different than the last six times.

Actually, I am mistaken (and you are too). There have been seven times that there has been an inverse curve, and six of those times it led to a recession within six months. We have had a inverse curve for over two years now... And no recession.

So you have to say, six out of the last seven times, not the last six times. Your prediction has already failed.

Well no, Walter. You were mistaken. My link only covered the last six times, from 1976. That's an adequate sample size.

You posted that -"It" (bond yield inversion) "sometimes indicates a recession, but has been far from always reliable."

Of course that is wrong.

Again, I'm pleased as punch that I was able to educate you about Bond Yield Inversions, Walter. No need to thank me, Walter, I consider it a public service...Walter.